The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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StatFox Jeff
Administrator
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 734
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Betting advice for hockey
quote:
**** wrote on 01-11-11 03:31 PM:
Hi , question. I have a method for Basketball and Football using the Foxsheets but having a hard time getting one for Hockey, Baseball because it's different because of the Moneyline instead of spreads. Could you give a few things that have worked for anyone that you know off that I can start with and I'll go from there. Thanks.
Hello: I don't have anything like a simple, 5 step system to handicap hockey. Rather, with hockey I try to follow a similar thought process as I do with baseball. Remember you are betting a money line. If you wager dogs, it is often possible to profit hitting just 40% to 45% of your games. (Like baseball.)
Some of the key areas that I look at include:
1.) Game Estimator projection
2.) Power Rating projection.
I don't necessarily look for star edges every time. Instead, I look for games which there is "value" on the same side in both of these ratings. That value could by 10 cents, 20 cents. What's important is that both ratings give the same message. For example, in tonight's Pittsburgh/Montreal game, both the estimator and power ratings show a slight value edge for the Penguins. That would be my starting point.
Like a hot pitcher in baseball, I look to back hot starting goalies and fade cold starting goalies. Specifically, I look at the "last 4 games" goalie stats in the stat table. I am mainly looking for goalies whose save percentages in the last 4 games are better or worse than their season averages. ex. In the Montreal game, starting goalie Carey Price has a save pct of 89.9% over his last 4 versus 91.1% for the entire season. I would categorize him as a "cold" goalie and give a slight edge to the Penguins.
Next, I'll look at the Super Situations. In most cases the situations will favor both sides. However, I will pay special attention if one side has decidedly more situations favoring them than the other. Or if there is a situation rated 4* or better favoring a side. In this game, there is no particular edge either way, so I simply ignore the section.
Finally, I would offer a couple pieces of advice. First, don't get too mechanical. Stats and ratings are invaluable, but often your instincts and gut feeling will point you in the right direction. This is an important part of the handicapping equation. If the numbers tell you to play the New Jersey Devils on the road against Vancouver, common sense will tell you otherwise. Lastly money management is key. My personal belief is to play alot of games for equal amounts. With a value system like FoxSheets offers, you are playing the percentages. More wagering opportunities and a 54% win percentage (very achievable) will net a nice profit over time.
I know this is alot to digest. Thanks for your question and best of luck!
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01-12-11 09:50 PM |
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