Arizona State –3.0 over California

Arizona State is one of a few still standing unbeatens in the NCAAF reeling off 7 consecutive wins. Meanwhile California has dropped 3 of their last 4 games including two successive upset losses to Oregon State and last week at UCLA. They have played one common opponent so far this season. Cal lost to Oregon State by 3 while Arizona State beat them by 12. Arizona state has a 20.8 defensive YPP and has only allowed one opponent this season to put up over 20 points in any game. They are allowing an average of 15.0 points per game on defense compared to Cal’s 28.2 per game. The Sun Devils are outscoring opponents this season 264 to 105 which is an average of 22.71 points per game. Cal is outscoring their opponents 236-198 for only a 5.42 points per game margin…Both teams have faced a similar schedule strength. California has managed to only cover 2 point spreads all season while Arizona State has covered all but two of their spreads. Arizona State will be in somewhat of a revenge situation this year as they got blasted at Cal last year 49-21 as only an 8 point dog. Arizona is 8-1 ATS when in revenge and coming off back to back SU wins in the last 9 situations. The Sun Devils are also coming off a week of rest having played their last game on the 13th. Despite the fact that California has a 4-0 ATS record in the last 4 meetings, I can’t see them making it five.
Diamond Line: Arizona St 35 – California 23