I am posting this courtesy of Mark Belling at belling.com

In my opinion it provides great insight and analysis and we were very very successful following this report last year. We had a lot of fun in the forum here with the winners.

Enjoy! MR_MJ
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OVERVIEW

There are a lot of things I don’t like about this year’s Breeders Cup. It’s at
Monmouth Park on the Jersey shore, a track not suited for large crowds or major racing,
the event is being watered down by being expanded to eleven races, the decision to
spread races out over two days is moronic and excludes people who can’t get away from
work on Friday and the Monmouth Park dirt track is unfairly biased toward horses with
inside post positions. All of those negatives are trumped by the one thing I DO like
about this year’s Cup----I have a horse in it.
Unbridled Belle is the first horse co-owned by me to ever race in a Breeders Cup
race and she’s one of the favorites in the Distaff. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has
dominated American racing the last few years but has had limited success in Breeders
Cup races. That could change this year. Prior to this spring, he had never won a Triple
Crown race---a story the media was obsessed with. That all changed when Pletcher’s
Rags To Riches, a filly, won the Belmont Stakes.
The best race of the day is the Breeders Cup Classic, in which the five top
members of this year’s sensational three-year old crop face America’s top older horse.
Several other races promise to be great as well. The real reason to pay attention to the
Cup is because it can make you a lot of money. Because the fields are so strong, long
shots often win and produce enormous payouts.
Last year my selections did very well and some of the long shots I picked for
second or third won at huge prices. My favorite way to play the Breeders Cup is to bet
pick threes. I suggest using all of my top horses in each leg. The selections below are
based on likelihood of winning. However, I intend to play horses other than my top pick
in several races. Go for the big price. These horses win again and again in Breeders
Cup races.
I’ll list my top contenders in each race and I will list ALL horses in the Classic..I’ll
start with Friday’s three races and move on to the eight to be run on Saturday.
THE PICKS
FRIDAY
BREEDERS CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#6 – OPRAH WINNEY 4-1
#1 – MISS MACY SUE 6-1
#3 – DREAM RUSH 2-1
#9 – SHAGGY MANE 12-1
#7 – LA TRAVIATA 3-1
#5 – JAZZY 18-1
ANALYSIS: Somebody has to win, I guess. This newly created race has a weak field
and OPRAH WINNEY, stupid name and all, has a good running style that will let her sit
just off the pace. MISS MACY SUE has been facing easier horses in the Midwest but
comes off an impressive win in September. DREAM RUSH will be favored and is the
most accomplished horse in the field but is vulnerable. Long shot SHAGGY MANE may
try to go wire-to-wire on a track where that tactic often works. Don’t ignore JAZZY.

SATURDAY
BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#10 – PROUD SPELL 12-1
#4 – INDIAN BLESSING 7-2
#3 – TASHA’S MIRACLE 7-1
#1 – PHANTOM INCOME 15-1
#8 – IZARRA 10-1
#5 – IRISH SMOKE 12-1
#2 – CLEARLY FOXY 35-1
ANALYSIS: This is an absolutely wide open race and big prices are very likely.
PROUD SPELL has a poor post position but should improve with the stretch out from a
sprint to route race. INDIAN BLESSING has won both of her career starts in smashing
fashion. TASHA’S MIRACLE has a great post position and should get a perfect trip
laying three lengths off the leaders.


BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#10 – TALE OF EKATI 5-1
#1 – Z HUMOR 8-1
#2 – WAR PASS 5-2
#7 – PYRO 6-1
ANALYSIS: How many ways can I say “I don’t know?” This race is impossible and I
have no real opinion. TALE OF EKATI is probably the best horse but has a lousy post
position and worked too fast earlier in the week. Z HUMOR showed dramatic
improvement in his last race. WAR PASS, the favorite, may not be able to get the full
distance.
BREEDERS CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#4 – PASSAGE OF TIME 8-1
#1 – ALL MY LOVING 15-1
#7 – ARGENTINA 15-1
#3 – NASHOBA’S KEY 2-1
#8 – TIMWARA 7-1
#2 – HONEY RYDER 5-1
#6 - LAHUDOOD 10-1
ANALYSIS: This race I love. I think the two favorites, NASHOBA’S KEY and WAIT A
WHILE, are very vulnerable and neither will be able to last the 1 3/8 mile distance of the
race. PASSAGE OF TIME is a three-year old European who ran a very good third in a
strong race in France six weeks ago. ALL MY LOVING may be scratched as she ran in
Ireland Sunday but if she does run it’s because her crafty trainer used the Sunday race
as a glorified workout. If she does run, she is definitely worth a flyer. ARGENTINA is a
very talented horse that refuses to pass the last horse. In other words, she’s a
“hanger.” She’ll pay a big price if she actually shows some competitiveness here.
TIMWARA won a medium level stakes in Ireland last out but European grass horses are
miles better than those in America. I’ll be very surprised if a foreign horse doesn’t win
this race.
BREEDERS CUP SPRINT
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#10 – GREG’S GOLD 9-1
#2 – MIDNIGHT LUTE 5-2
#8 – BENNY THE BULL 7-2
#7 – IDIOT PROOF 6-1
#4 – TALENT SEARCH 25-1
#6 – COMMENTATOR 5-1
#11 – FOREFATHERS 30-1

ANALYSIS: GREG’S GOLD can lay just behind the speed horses and pass them all in
the stretch. He has finished first or second in seven of his eight races at this distance.
MIDNIGHT LUTE ran a spectacular race last time out and got the highest speed rating in
the history of one of the ratings services. BENNY THE BULL ran second in that same
race. IDIOT PROOF is very fast but faces other speed horses. TALENT SEARCH has
as good a chance as any of the speed horses to go wire-to-wire. FOREFATHERS, if he
isn’t scratched, has a real shot of shocking them all with a run from well off the pace.

BREEDERRS CUP MILE
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#5 – JEREMY 10-1
#9 – NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ 6-1
#10 – MY TYPHOON 30-1
#3 – AFTER MARKET 9-2
#13 – EXCELLENT ART 12-1
#8 – KIP DEVILLE 4-1
#14 – REMARKABLE NEWS 15-1
#12 – PURIM 20-1
ANALYSIS: I really like Jeremy here. He has faced some of Europe’s top milers this
year and is ridden by the most accomplished grass jockey in the world. As stated in an
above race, I always prefer Europeans over Americans in grass races. NOBIZ LIKE
SHOWBIZ is the best American and has the type of monster closing kick needed in this
type of race. MY TYPHOON is a VERY live long shot. She’s a filly facing males but is
perfectly suited to the distance of this race, which was won last year by the same owner
and jockey. AFTER MARKET is a talented American but may be overbet as is the case
with KIP DEVILLE. EXCELLENT ART, REMARKABLE NEWS and PURIM are all good
horses that drew awful post positions.
BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#11 – UNBRIDLED BELLE 4-1
#5 – LADY JOANNE 12-1
#7 – LEAR’S PRINCESS 10-1
#10 – INDIAN VALE 6-1
#1 – BALANCE 8-1
#4 – GINGER PUNCH 5-2
#12 – HYSTERICALADY 12-1
ANALYSIS: Yeah, I’m picking my own horse to win. Her outside post position is
terrible and in her two wins this year she was able to save ground by racing on the rail
until the stretch. But she is racing for only the fifth time this year and her two wins were
the most impressive performances on dirt by an older filly or mare all year. Her running
style, laying a little off the pace, is absolutely perfect as this race is loaded with speed
horses who will duel for the lead. If UNBRILDED BELLE can’t do it, the likely winner is
LADY JOANNE who will press the pace. She’s a three year old on the improve and
ready to run the best race of her career. Same trainer and jockey as Street Sense, the
favorite in the Classic. LEAR’S PRINCESS is similar to Lady Joanne. INDIAN VALE is
perfectly suited to the speed favoring nature of the Monmouth track. I’ll be very
surprised if race favorite GINGER PUNCH lands a punch.


BREEDERS CUP TURF
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#7 – DYLAN THOMAS 7-5
#5 – GRAND COURTURIER 15-1
#2 – RED ROCKS 6-1
#6 – ENGLISH CHANNEL 5-2
#3 – BETTER TALK NOW 6-1
#4 – SHAMDINAN 12-1
ANALYSIS: DYLAN THOMAS won Europe’s most prestigious grass race three weeks
ago and is the best turf horse in the world. The only question is whether he can come
back and run another big one on short rest. The answer is probably yes but the price
will be low. GRAND COURTURIER is an American grass horse who ran well against
top company last year in Europe. His only strong race here in the US was at 1 ½ miles--
-the exact distance of this race! He could shock as part of a very big day for jockey
Calvin Borel. RED ROCKS won last year and has been pointed for this race all year.
ENGLISH CHANNEL and BETTER TALK NOW are American horses who will be
overrated because of the soft competition they faced here this year. SHAMDINAN is
hard to figure based on a decent European track record and one great and one awful
race in the US. The other two horses in this small field have absolutely no chance.
BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC
HORSE PROJECTED ODDS
#2 – STREET SENSE 2-1
#9 – TIAGO 8-1
#7 – DIAMOND STRIPES 15-1
#4 – CURLIN 3-1
#3 – ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 5-1
#1 – LAWYER RON 3-1
#8 – HARD SPUN 7-1
#6 – AWESOME GEM 18-1
#5 – GEORGE WASHINGTON 35-1
ANALYSIS: The race of the year! I just can’t pick a winner between STREET SENSE
AND TIAGO and I have a STRONG opinion the winner will be one of those two. So, I’m
picking them both to win. (It’s my site and I’ll do what I want.) STREET SENSE will end
up in racing’s Hall of Fame and is the horse that will put his trainer, Carl Nafzger, in there
as well. Street Sense won the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and the Kentucky Derby
and Travers this year. In other words, Nafzger has him ready on big days. He’ll close
strongly and loves the distance. My only concern is that jockey Calvin Borel has ridden
him perfectly in every one of his wins and if he finally catches bad luck, the horse is
vulnerable. TIAGO is a fast improving California three year old who wasn’t quite as
good as the other great three year olds this season but is coming up to this race in the
right way. He’s another with an old school trainer who knows how to prepare horses for
a big race. If one of my top two doesn’t win, any of the other seven members of this
spectacular field can win. Don’t ignore DIAMOND STRIPES. He’ll be a big price and is
sitting on a big race. GEORGE WASHINGTON, a European grass horse, can pull the
big upset if he adapts to the surface. I’m playing this race with my top two selections on
top and all horses in all slots underneath.
DEAD HEAT

BEST BET OF THE DAY: Jeremy in the Mile
BEST MEDIUM LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: Passage of Time in the Filly and Mare Turf
BEST HUGE LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: My Typhoon in the Mile
WEIRDEST STORY OF THE DAY: Trainer Bobby Frankel, who has four horses
running, isn’t coming because his dog is sick.
WHERE TO BET: You can wager at Dairyland dog track in Kenosha, Ho-Chunk in
Baraboo, Oneida Casino in Green Bay or any of the OTBs in Illinois.
TV: ESPN-2 will be on from 3:00-5:00 Friday afternoon while regular ESPN will
provide seven hours of live coverage Saturday from 11:00 in the morning until 6:00 in
the evening.

http://www.belling.com/BREEDERSCUP.pdf

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