Top ranked Ohio State is a solid number one selection and will have its severest challenge to date at Penn State. Besides the physical match-up, bettors will have to decide to bet for or against a 100 percent trend in this Big Ten barnburner. Kansas will try to match victories with the Buckeyes, also having to perform on the road, down in College Station against Texas A&M who is tied for first place in the other Big 12 division. Arizona State might be the biggest surprise of all and will have its armor tested by what had to be an angry bunch of Bears down in the desert. All lines are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.


Ohio State (-3.5, 40) at Penn State 8:00E ABC

Ohio State doesn’t have many stumbling blocks ahead; however this is one capable of deriding the Buckeyes. This Big Ten beauty will be played in “white out” conditions, as the Penn State crowd the last few years has worn all white. Jim Tressel has put together what is widely thought of his classic team. Stifling, suffocating defense, matched with superior special teams and an offense that improves as the season moves along. As acclaimed as last year’s squad was, this Ohio State bunch might be better. Some may see Ohio State only won by a touchdown against Michigan State; however the 422 to185 total yardage difference paints a truer picture, instead of the two Buckeyes turnovers that were returned for touchdowns. Ohio State is 15-5 ATS against Big 10 opponents over the last three seasons.

Quarterback Anthony Morelli has played like all-Big Ten QB at home and doormat on the road. Whatever the reasons for this, Morelli has touchdown makers on the perimeter in Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. The running game has missed a quick strike artist, plodding along at 4.1 YPC versus BCS teams on the docket. Penn State has to play the field possession game and have the patience of Jobe against the best defense in the country. The Nittany Lions defense is also ferocious led by Dan Conner, ranked seventh overall and leads the nation in sacks. They will be in Buckeyes backfield pressuring QB Todd Boeckman, who did not look all that comfortable when Michigan State defense went for broke and cornerback Justin King will be ready to grab any errant throws.
The Nittany Lions are a smallish underdog, which could produce a Fred Flintstone “Yuppa Duppa Do” for bettors who have seen Jo Pa’s team cover three times, with two outright upsets in this exact situation. The home team has astonishingly covered nine in a row when these two powerhouse programs collide. For Buckeye backers think about this. Penn State has never covered against a team that allows 12 points a fewer in a dozen attempts the last 15 years.

StatFox Forecaster – Penn State covers
StatFox Power Line – Ohio State by 4
StatFox Outplay – Pick


Kansas (-3, 55) Texas A&M 7:00E ESPN
It is hard to think of two football programs that could be anymore opposite than these two Big 12 combatants. Texas A&M has had to deal Dennis Franchione selling inside information to Aggies fanatics (i.e. bettors?) through his website and was shutdown and blistered by the university. They got the bi-annual beating at Texas Tech which brings up the line from a movie, “Thank you sir, may I have another”. Coach Fran is not loved in College Station to start and unless he finishes with a flourish, he might need new address.

Seasons like this only happen on the hardwood in Lawrence, which makes this year doubly delightful. As skeptics point to easy Kansas schedule, no denying they have beaten up weaker teams as good quality teams do. As this special season continues the road has not been kind to Mark Mangini. Kansas is 6-21 (13-14 ATS) on the road and has never won the back end of two straight contests as visitors under coach Mangini. (0-5)

The Aggies have beaten Kansas seven times in a row dating back to more then 20 years, but have failed to cover the last three. Big Jorvorskie Lane is like trying to tackle a moving train and Mike Goodson is a speedy alternative out of the bullpen. Quarterback Stephen McGee is an ordinary passer, with nimble feet who can present problems. The Kansas 7th ranked run stop defense (78 YPG) will find out if they are for real.

Kansas QB Todd Reesing may need an introduction in the national media, but teams that have faced the Jayhawks signal caller know how coolly efficient he is. Kansas is balanced on offense at 213 YPG on the ground and moving for 276 YPG thru the air. Texas A&M would not seem to present much a challenge defensively allowing 400 YPG. Kansas is 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.

This situation cries for the home dog in a conference game and the Aggies are 10-2 ATS at College Station versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 yards or less a game.

StatFox Forecaster – Kansas covers
StatFox Power Line – Kansas by 2
StatFox Outplay Factor – Kansas by 14


South Carolina (+2.5, 52.5) at Tennessee 7:45E ESPN
This primetime confrontation has a binary presents with the two head coaches involved. Besides that, Philip Fulmer and Steve Spurrier have maintained a coaching relationship that is like frosty Coors Light. The ole ball coach has tweaked Tennessee and Fulmer since he started at Florida. Fulmer has generally kept his mouth closed, and relished every win over Spurrier. Both coaches were embarrassed last week, with there teams suffering humiliating losses.

The Vols normally have a very crisp offense that moves the ball with Erik Ainge running the show. Tennessee posts 416 YPG against defenses that have allowed almost 50 yards fewer. Expect Philip Fulmer to have the troops charged, similar to Georgia game, ready from first whistle to start putting up points. The Volunteers are 10-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points. The defense had been coming along, but after last Alabama game it could be back to the drawing board.

South Carolina will be a sharp test for Ainge, with a number one pass defense in the country. The front seven can generate pressure on opposing QB, but are vulnerable against the run, allowing 177.7 YPG, 10th in the SEC. The Gamecocks seem to lack explosiveness and haven't had many big plays on offense. They're averaging a meandering 340 yards per game. Spurrier has always been hard on quarterbacks and now neither Chris Smelley nor Blake Mitchell is playing well.

Another wacky SEC trend with no positive reasoning other than it’s true. The visitor has covered the spread 10 consecutive times in this SEC encounter. If that isn’t confounding enough, try these two. South Carolina is 1-12 SU in Knoxville, while Spurrier coached teams are 11-1 ATS away with conference revenge. The winner lives to fight another day in the crazy SEC East.

StatFox Forecaster – South Carolina covers
StatFox Power Line – Tennessee by 2
StatFox Outplay Factor – Tennessee by 1


California (+3, 60.5) at Arizona State 10:15E FSN

The Pac-10 elimination process starts moving in high gear with California taking sojourn to the desert to take on surprising Arizona State. Cal is trying to put behind them they were this close, to being number one and is not going to a bowl game they would not have expected two weeks ago. Not having Nate Longshore did not help the offense against Oregon State, but he did his part in committing turnovers in loss to UCLA, giving them seven in the two losses compared to a total of four in the first five wins. It’s the Pac-10, thus points always come in a large container, however Cal better be prepared by buckling chin straps for suddenly physical Arizona State. The Bears have not responded well to losses, being 7-18 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.


The Sun Devils are 5-0 in Tempe and 4-1 ATS this season under Dennis Erickson. Arizona State has been winning by 23.6 PPG and have unstoppable in the second half of all home games. The Sun Devils control their own future and quite a future it is. Ahead are not only California, but Oregon, UCLA, USC and in-state rival Arizona. “People are starting to recognize we are a good team, and the last five games are going to be the toughest of them all," Erickson told The East Valley Tribune. Rudy Carpenter should have the nickname “Moen” as like the faucet, he will run hot and cold. If he can find his rhythm quickly, Carpenter should have success with the Cal secondary conceding 245 YPG on 65.7 completion rate. A large part of Erickson football is running and the Sun Devils pound away at 44 times per game, averaging 185 yards. ASU has had only one game of more than two turnovers and are 11-3 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers.

For the most part ASU can match the Cal speed and have a decided edge in power football. The home team has covered 7 of the last 9 meetings. Being in the Top 5 of the BCS is heady stuff for this program and has to match play with expectations against a Bears team more familiar with surroundings. California is 6-2 ATS vs. the Sun Devils.

StatFox Forecaster – California covers
StatFox Power Line – Arizona State by 6
StatFox Outplay Factor – Arizona State by 11

I am with you on two of the games, S. Car and Penn State.

Not playing the other ones but did lean on Cal. May still do it. I for one think that they can win that game SU

Thanks Doug
I like them all gl Vic