Hey Guys,

Coming off a great win last night...Lets keep it going!!

North Carolina @ Wake Forest

Last year this Tar Heel team lost 24-17 but actually outgained the WF by 81 yards. The difference was a 3-0 turnover ratio in the Deacon's favour.

UNC has vastly improved their pass offense by 64 ypg but more importantly have improved their defense by only allowing 19 ppg vs 31 a year ago. The Deacons are allowing 4 more ppg and scoring 3 less than last year. UNC has improved and WF has dropped a level imo.

Lets look at the trends in this game...

UNC is 4-0 ATS in L4 games after scoring < 20 pt
UNC is 4-0 ATS in L4 games as a dog of 3.5-10
UNC is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games as a dog
UNC is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

WF is 3-13 ATS in their L16 games as a home fav
WF is 1-6 ATS in their L7 games as a fav of 3.5-10
WF is 0-4 ATS in their L4 HG vs. < .500 team

UNC 4-1 ATS in their L5 meetings in WF
Road team is 7-3 ATS in their L10 meetings
Dog is 4-1 ATS in their L5 meetings

In summary, the line opened too low imo as the oddsmakers are begging for WF money. I expect the Tar Heels to avenge last year's loss today.

Play NORTH CAROLINA +6 -120 (Potential UPSET!!)

No time for a write-up but i'm on IOWA +3 as well.

Good Luck,

Rockman

Zack