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osk
StatFox Hall Of Famer

Registered: May 2005
Posts: 4175

Major League Baseball **Top Plays** (Friday, May 18, 2007)

**Top Play #1**

New York Yankees (-102) over New York Mets*

*Please list both Andy Pettitte and Oliver Perez.

Andy Pettitte takes the mound for the slumping Yankees and that is good news as he has compiled a 2.68 ERA this season, including a 1.93 ERA and 1.225 WHIP on the road (5 starts). Moreover, Pettitte enters tonight's game in good form as evidenced by his 2.21 ERA over his last three starts, including yielding only 3 runs over his last 14+ innings of work. Finally, Pettitte is a profitable 7-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.266 WHIP against the Mets over his career.

While Oliver Perez has been pitching well for the Mets, he has not faired as well against the Yankees. In fact, the last time Perez faced the Bronx Bombers he yielded 6 earned runs, 7 hits and 5 walks over 5 innings of work. Not surprisingly, he has a career 5.40 ERA and 1.971 WHIP against the Yankees. And, since 2003, Perez is 7-7 with a 4.83 ERA in the month of May.
-------------------
Play Against - Any team (Mets) - good NL offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors.
(49-10 since 1997; 83.1%)

This system is a perfect 18-0 since 2003 and 25-0 since 2000.
--------------------
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (Mets) - good NL offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors.
(35-3 since 1997; 92.1%)

This system is a perfect 15-0 since 2003 and 20-0 since 2000.
---------------------
Finally, this line is badly skewed as a result of the public's perception of both teams. Great value on the Yankees tonight so invest with confidence.

Rating: 1.25*




"Don't give up. . .Don't Ever Give Up!" --Jimmy Valvano

Old Post 05-18-07 03:36 PM
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redwingxix


Registered: Jan 2007
Posts: 502

good luck today, Osk. should be an interesting weekend for the baseball.




Some, they may go for cocaine.But I'm sure that if I took even one sniff, it would bore me terrifically, too.

Old Post 05-18-07 03:47 PM
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osk
StatFox Hall Of Famer

Registered: May 2005
Posts: 4175

I failed to mention that the Yankees are a syndicate source play of mine. Good luck today.




"Don't give up. . .Don't Ever Give Up!" --Jimmy Valvano

Old Post 05-18-07 03:57 PM
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winsum$


Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 250

My book is already at -110. I'm on it. Thanks and good luck today.

Old Post 05-18-07 03:59 PM
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AngryBeavers
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1555

Thanks OSK

For this as well as the hoops play

Good Luck!

Old Post 05-18-07 06:18 PM
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steveko
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 3478

osk

good luck today

Old Post 05-18-07 06:47 PM
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osk
StatFox Hall Of Famer

Registered: May 2005
Posts: 4175

Strong Opinion

Chicago Cubs (-130) over Chicago White Sox*

*Please list both pitchers.

Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (White Sox) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games.
(76-28 over the last 5 seasons; 73.1%)

This system is 48-14 since 2003.
----------------------
Play Against - Any team (White Sox) - bad AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(45-12 since 1997; 78.9%)

This system is 11-3 since 2002 and 25-5 since 2000.
----------------------
Ted Lilly has a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP at home, a 3.10 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over his last three starts and a 2.53 ERA and 0.900 WHIP overall this season. He has yielded a measly 3 runs over his last 15 innings of work, including a stellar performance his last time out in Philadelpia.

Mark Buehrle has compiled a 5.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP over his last three starts and, further, has a 5.63 ERA in 7 career starts against the Cubs. The last time Buehrle visited Wrigley Field in 2006, he allowed 11 runs and 13 hits over 5 innings of work.

The Cub's collapse yesterday, together with the White Sox victory over the Yankees, has caused the public to pound the visiting squad today. Big mistake. There is a good reason for why the oddsmakers have installed the Cubs as -130 favorites despite their woeful performance this season.

Rating: .75*

Note: The Cubs are merely a strong opinion and, as such, are not a Top Play. That explains the .75* rating on this game.




"Don't give up. . .Don't Ever Give Up!" --Jimmy Valvano

Old Post 05-18-07 07:38 PM
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brian_n_bama
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Registered: May 2005
Posts: 20449

My feelings exactly, except they are a top play for me. Let's get this one!

Old Post 05-18-07 07:39 PM
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osk
StatFox Hall Of Famer

Registered: May 2005
Posts: 4175

Brian

Seeing your 5* rating on the Cubs made this a 'no-brainer'.

Good luck, buddy.




"Don't give up. . .Don't Ever Give Up!" --Jimmy Valvano

Old Post 05-18-07 07:41 PM
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brew3r


Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 163

i ike you seeing the two of you on the cubbies with me.

lets hope for the best ... and that the bullpen can hold up one time for us. lol

Old Post 05-18-07 07:45 PM
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quantum
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 908

The reason they installed them as a big favorite they know the Cub legions will bet them no matter what, and let's face it they (cub fans) have more money (LOL), I'm on the other side, better team, and dog, I hope it's my head talking and not my heart.

Best of luck to you on the rest of your plays

Old Post 05-18-07 07:45 PM
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wojo12212
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 12317

Os

Good luck tonight.

I will be on the Yankees as well. Hopefully this Subway Series can finally wake them up.


Wojo

Old Post 05-18-07 11:13 PM
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savage1


Registered: Oct 2003
Posts: 393

Personally I think the lines on Yankee are based on past reputation and are off in the other direction.
If the Yankees were just considered like any other 500 team on the road against a team like the Mets with one of best records in baseball, line would be at least Mets -140 if not higher no matter who was pitching for Yankees.
Last I looked the Yankees are by far the WORST investment of any team in the majors if one had bet to win 1 unit on them every game they played.

Old Post 05-19-07 03:59 AM
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