Allright already about the forum. Lets talk sports! Been looking over games today and noticed a missing player for Boston as he is on rest...Nomar. Here is the question. Can any one player besides the ump and pitcher change the outcome of the game....If you answer yes.. What players?


dave

Nomar, Bonds, A-Rod are off the top of my head.

Once again I will challenge normal logic and state that hitting and bullpens are more important than starting pitching! Many will argue this statement but time and time again playoff teams have one thing in common..great run support and good pitching supprt after inning six..One of my rules in playing baseball games is to reduce the wager on teams that sit or rotate batters that bat .290 or better. I also will drop all games if a spark plug is out of the line-up ( last night durham for oakland out good example)...Also look for returning starters into a line-up..as i feel run production will drop for about the 1st 5-8 games...( As was the case with the Royals with the addition on beltran 0-9 and forcing me to acutally watch the Royals game).Welcom back JD Drew from St Louis as he strands three ducks, but hell happy your back!?!

dave

My theory is any top 3 positional players on any given team and/or closer or middle inning specialist. If one of those guys are out for a team then compare if vegas has made the correct adjustment in the line. While I don't believe any one person means the difference between a win and a loss in baseball, I do believe that the value in a given line can change accordingly.

while we're at it. I don't know if anyone is aware of this.. but david robinson is going to be out of tonight's game. Any thought on that?

-show

Without the Little Mermaid errr "the admiral"

I think SA has a chance. But, who knows how good the home cookin will be in Phoenix. In Philly, it was delicious at my expense.

::::Once again I will challenge normal logic and state that hitting and bullpens are more important than starting pitching!:::

That's mostly true in the long run, but you shouldn't go by that theory alone on a day to day basis. For example, heading into todays game.....

Boston in their last 5 games was averaging 6.4 runs per game, had a .327 team average and their bullpen had not given up a run in their last 5 games

Toronto in their last 5 games was averaging 3.4 runs per game, hitting .257 and had a bullpen ERA if 5.14.

Of course, Toronto ended up winning today. The 2 best reasons for them winning today was probably because a) The law of averages (teams normally don't get swept), b) because Toronto players have good hitting history against John Burkett.

Hitting and bullpen stats are important, but so are starting pitching and W/L trend information

Agree and Disagree


Agree that streaks matter( when qualified) in sports betting but using the last 5 games to create "a rule" to sports betting is not a good move. I just dont believe that the most recent five games adds any value to making a decision. (I love those websites that state Blue Jays are 0-5 last 5, who cares!) Personally i use a 'run rolling averages method" to determine expected run performance. First i create a " runs power rating system" and assign each team a number from 16-20. The better run getters the better the number. Use this to determine good value.. A better example of this method would be the Yanks/Twins..Yanks average more than 5 runs a game over the last 2 years..that is real value..getting a team -160 versus a worse hitting team is a good bet..love when great hitting teams take to the road!

dave

What a team has done in their last 5 games is just a small piece of the pie when it comes to the way I handicap games. I also look at many other things suchs as The FoxSheets, season long trends, and starting pitching matchups.

In the second half of the NHL season something I worked with was to incorporate the last five games with the road home record and add/subtract the difference from the teams to get a percentage base to find which team had a higher percent chance of winning. While not foolproof and a very small sampling of games, it went 9-2 in a one week period. I haven't kept up with it to get a larger sampling, but it may have merit. Here is the breakdown:

Road Team
Road record 14-15
Last 5 2-3
Totals 16-18

Home Team
Home record 15-15
Last 5 3-2
Totals 18-17

Home team has the higher number in the win column so we use that as the start and add the Home team wins + the road team losses 18+18 = 36. Then we add the road team wins + the home team losses 16+17= 33

Then we get a percentage of the two 36+33 =69
divide the record for each to get a percentage 36/69 =52% chance for the home team to win. Whenever the percentage was over 70% the record for the week was 9-2.

than myself when it comes to baseball betting but I am doing fairly well. The way I see it is this: Take the team that has the best starting pitching, averages at least one run more than the opponent, has a solid bullpen, and is of the value YOU are looking for.

Then bet the damn game. A good example today is the Yankees. How in the world could anyone have NOT bet the Yankees?!!

I think sometimes people make things a little more complicated than need be. With my vast knowledge of handicapping horses I have seen this many times.

Take the best team and bet them if you think the price is justified. If not...pass and don't try to beat them. You'll lose way more than you'll win.

I cannot tell you how many times I have seen horse players handicap a race, find the horse they think is going to win, and then play AGAINST that horse because the price was not right!! How stupid. What was their handicapping for?

The same goes for any sport actually. The only question you really have to ask yourself is this: Is the price a price I am willing to pay? If so then bet the best team. If not then pass.

It's like people betting on the Tigers. What are you thinking? Yes, they will win occasionally but you had better get a VERY high money line on them because you are going to lose a ton of money. You either bet against them right now or you don't bet.

There will be people that see the large money line on the Tigers when they get to the West Coast and be tempted. DON'T. Either suck it up and pay the price or leave the game alone.

Dog

well said DOG!