The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Michigan at Washington (-2.5, 41)
Michigan (4-1, ranked 10th) just held off Minnesota 27-24 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Washington (3-2) just fell to Rutgers 21-18, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Washington listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Michigan has the better record and ranking, why are they an underdog? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 84% of spread bets are backing the Wolverines. However, despite Michigan receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line move further toward Washington -2 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Huskies, with pros fading the trendy dog Wolverines and instead backing the contrarian home favorite. Washington is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 16% of spread bets in a nationally televised 7:30 p.m. ET game on NBC. Those looking to follow the sharp Washington move could protect themselves from a close game that may not cover the number by playing the Huskies on the moneyline at -135. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 52-26 (67%) straight up with a 7% ROI since 2017. Washington also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday while Michigan played on Saturday and now must travel to the Pacific Northwest.
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10-01-24 10:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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USC (-8.5, 51) at Minnesota
USC (3-1, ranked 11th) just took down Wisconsin 38-21, covering as 14-point home favorites. Conversely, Minnesota (2-3) just fell to Michigan 27-24 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with USC listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with USC and 76% of spread bets are laying the points with the Trojans. However, despite receiving this heavy dose of public support, the line hasn’t budged off USC -8.5. It has even dipped down to -8 at some shops. It has never risen up to -9. Reading between the lines, it appears as though Minnesota is receiving a sharp line freeze, as the line hasn’t moved despite heavy USC betting. This signals a reluctance on the part of the oddsmakers to adjust the number toward the popular side for fear of giving out an additional half point or more to contrarian Minnesota backers. The Gophers are only receiving 24% of spread bets but 33% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet against the public bet split. Minnesota has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 52 to 51. The under is receiving 53% of bets but 76% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguy money banking on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.
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10-01-24 10:08 PM |
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