The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Buccaneers were getting 3 when this thing first opened, but that has been bet down a bit. The total has also come down about a point, opening at 44.5 and now sitting at 43.5 at most sportsbooks. And while I don’t have a strong preference when it comes to the side or total in this game, I tend to agree with the way these odds are moving.
It’s just very hard to ignore how disappointing this Falcons team has been. Atlanta could very well be 0-4 right now, but Philadelphia gifted the team a win in Week 2. The Falcons then found a way to beat the Saints last week despite the fact that they didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. New Orleans probably wins that game if not for a muffed punt that turned into a touchdown for Atlanta. The Saints also committed a pass interference that led to the game-winning field goal for Younghoe Koo, so it’s not like Raheem Morris’ team drove down the field in impressive fashion.
As things stand, the Falcons are just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048) and 23rd in EPA per play allowed (0.028). This is a below average team on both sides of the ball right now. The Buccaneers haven’t been much better defensively, as they’re just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.021). But they would probably be a little higher if Vita Vea played against the Broncos in Week 3. Also, Tampa Bay has been far superior on offense, as the team is ninth in EPA per play (0.069) and eighth when it comes to Dropback EPA per play (0.133).
Overall, it’s just hard not to have a little more trust in Baker Mayfield than Kirk Cousins right now, which might be a little surprising given what we’ve seen in both of their careers. But Mayfield is PFF’s 10th-ranked passer this year, and Cousins is just 23rd in those rankings. Mayfield is also a little more aggressive in looking to make plays. So, Tampa Bay’s offense is the more reliable group here, and the defense is probably a little better too.
The Buccaneers are also 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and Tampa Bay is also 8-4 ATS as a road underdog under Todd Bowles.
As far as the total goes, neither one of these offenses has been explosive enough to warrant an Over play. And both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, as well as offensive coordinators that value the running games.
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10-03-24 08:34 AM |
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