Texas State (-13.5) @ Troy
Texas State (2-2)
Bobcats lost last two games, by total of four points.
Texas State led 22-0 in 1st quarter LW, lost 40-39 to Sam Houston.
Texas State has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Bobcats have 68 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB McCloud started 13 games at James Madison LY; he is at his 4th in six years- he played in 20 games at South Florida, 3 at Arizona.

Last three year, Texas State is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Bobcats were 6-10 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Texas State’s one I-A win was 49-10 over UTSA.
Bobcats are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Texas State has thrown ball for 301 yards/game in its I-A tilts.

Troy (1-4)
Trojans are 0-4 vs I-A teams, with home losses by 2-4 points.
Troy has 2 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
Trojans have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Frosh QB Kilcrease played LW, threw only 10 passes in 13-9 loss.
Trojans ran ball for 241 yards, but didn’t score a TD.

Troy was 23-5 SU last two years; they’ve got new coach this year.
Since 2015, Troy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, Trojans were 13-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Troy was held under 275 TY in its last three I-A games.
Trojans are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.

Troy State won last nine series games (3-3 ATS last six).
Bobcats are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Troy.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Sam Houston State (-10.5) @ UTEP
Sam Houston State (4-1)
Bearkats won last three games, scoring 31-31-40 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 278.3 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.

Last four years, Sam Houston is 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Bearkats are 13-15 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Bearkats were down 22-0 LW, rallied to beat Texas State, 40-39.
Sam Houston is 4-1 ATS in last five games coming off a win.
Under is 3-2 in their games this season.

Texas-El Paso (0-4)
Miners lost their I-A games by 33-18-10 points, scoring 11.3 ppg.
UTEP has been outrushed 634-195 in its I-A games.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.

UTEP is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
UTEP is 18-11 ATS in last six 29 conference games.
Miners are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Under is 3-0 in their games this season.

UTEP (+3.5) upset Sam Houston 37-34 LY, running for 222 yards.
Miners outgained Sam Houston, 428-354.

The Lone Star State will be well-represented on Thursday night to kick off Week 6, as three of the four teams in action hail from Texas. Texas State, Sam Houston State, and UTEP all take the field, along with Troy, as we get a double dose of small-conference football to get things underway. Both road teams are double-digit favorites and two of them actually played each other last week in a game that could have a significant impact on how they perform this week.

Texas State Bobcats (-13, 57.5) at Troy Trojans
7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Sun Belt action takes us to Alabama, as Troy hosts Texas State. This will be the first true road game of the season for the Bobcats, who lost at NRG Stadium to Sam Houston State last Saturday. It is a quick turnaround for both of those teams, but Texas State has to be eager to get back on the field after blowing last week’s game against the Bearkats.

Texas State had over 6.2 yards per play in the 40-39 loss and had a 22-0 lead after the first quarter. Despite not scoring for almost 27 minutes, the Bobcats were six seconds away from a win, but Sam Houston State kicked a 24-yard chippy for the win. So, it was a massive collapse from the Bobcats, who even got a 60-yard field goal from Mason Shipley right before the halftime horn.

The Bobcat defense has problems but the offense seems just fine under James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud. Troy has allowed 6.35 yards per play in four FBS games, so I expect the Bobcats to move the rock in this one.

I do not expect Troy to move the ball much. They had 8.7 YPP in the win over Florida A&M, but have just barely over five yards per play against FBS foes. This team lost so much from last season and now gets a very angry, very unhappy Texas State team in a spotlight game for head coach GJ Kinne, who will level up and have a better job next season.