8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 43.5)

The Buccaneers (3-1) just brushed aside the Eagles 33-16, easily winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (2-2) just earned a last-second, walk-off 26-24 win over the Saints but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites.

This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and 58% of spread bets are taking Tampa Bay plus the points. Early in the week, we saw the Falcons fall from -3 to -1.5. However, we’ve seen steady “fade the trendy dog” game-day buyback on the Falcons, driving Atlanta back up from -1.5 to -2.5. Gameday movement is especially notable because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. The Falcons are only receiving 42% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet primetime game. Atlanta also has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (1-3) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (3-1).

Those looking to bet against the public and follow the Falcons gameday steam could also entertain Atlanta on the moneyline at -130. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 2-1 straight up this season and 63-26 (71%) straight up since 2016. The Bucs are also forced to travel on a short week while the Falcons are playing their third consecutive home game. Tampa Bay has the longer injury report and will be without starting RT Luke Goedeke, S Antoine Winfield Jr, DL Calijah Kancey and WRs Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan.

In terms of the total, it has fallen from 44 to 43.5 at several shops across the market. It has also never risen up to 44.5. Reading between the lines, it appears the larger, sharper wagers are leaning under. The under is only receiving 27% of bets but 38% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Thursday Night Football unders are 3-1 this season and 33-27 (55%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 8-7 this season and 168-114 (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Divisional unders are 7-6 this season and 114-90 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.

Player Prop to Consider

Kirk Cousins Over 228.5 passing yards (-110): Cousins has gone over this number in three consecutive games, throwing for 241 yards in Week 2 against the Eagles, 230 yards in Week 3 against the Chiefs and 238 yards last week against the Saints. Cousins has also gone over this number in 14 of his last 20 games overall. This will be Cousins’ fifth game with the Falcons, which means he is gaining more experience in the system and more familiarity in the passing game. Cousins should also enjoy some added protection tonight as starting right tackle Kaleb McGary is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing Week 4 with a knee injury.