The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sunday marks the final day of the Major League Baseball regular season for most teams, but not for the Atlanta Braves, who enter the day in possession of the second NL wild-card spot, one game ahead of both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves and Mets, of course, are scheduled to play a Monday doubleheader to settle the final wild-card standings once and for all.
Atlanta's opposition on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals, have already clinched an AL wild-card spot. This contest isn't totally worthless for them, as whether they'll be the fifth or sixth seed is still up in the air.
I was really curious to see how Royals manager Matt Quatraro would handle these weekend games with a playoff berth already in hand.
The first-time playoff manager is playing it safe. He pulled Seth Lugo from Saturday's start after just two innings, which probably serves as his regularly scheduled bullpen. The Royals had tabbed Cole Ragans as their Sunday starter before the series, but they are saving their ace for the Wild Card Round.
Alec Marsh is getting the ball in Kansas City's regular-season finale. He last pitched on September 18, so he'll be plenty rested for this spot start.
Marsh enters Sunday with a 4.65 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 124 innings with 24 starts and one relief outing. The right-hander chopped his ERA down by more than a run and FIP by more than a run and a half compared to his 2023 rookie season.
The biggest difference for Marsh is pretty cut and dry throwing strikes. His BB/9 sat at an ugly 4.58 in his rookie year, and it is 2.56 in his sophomore year.
The Royals enter Sunday in the third wild-card spot and one game behind the Detroit Tigers, who are playing the woeful Chicago White Sox. A Tigers win and/or a Royals loss means Detroit will play the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Round; a Royals win and Tigers loss pushes Kansas City to the fifth seed and a playoff matchup with Baltimore.
Simply put, the Braves just need to keep on winning games a task they've taken on well as victors of five straight. This little run has propelled them to the second NL wild-card spot with both the Mets and Diamondbacks floundering hard in the final week.
Brian Snitker still hasn't announced a starting pitcher, but he mentioned Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton as potential options.
I'd guess Sale is the least likely. The NL Cy Young Award frontrunner actually hasn't pitched since September 19, but it's hard to imagine Snitker burns Sale before the doubleheader. That leaves Morton and Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach is on normal rest, last pitching five days ago against the Mets, while Morton last went eight days ago against the Marlins.
My best educated guess? I think Schwellenbach gets the ball. For one, he's fresher than Morton since he's been off for over a week. Also, Schwellenbach is the better pitcher these days, and all Atlanta needs is a win on Sunday to make the playoffs. Why not go with the best non-Sale option to secure a spot in the postseason?
The good news? One of the Braves' key missing cogs returned a few weeks ago. That is Ozzie Albies, who provides a steadying presence at the top of Atlanta's order.
So, whats changed offensively for the suddenly surging Braves?
Two of their best players Matt Olson, who looked lost for half of the year, and outfielder Michael Harris II, who's dealt with multiple injuries have been on an absolute tear. Although Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. are done for the season, this lineup featuring the likes of Harris-Albies-Olson-Marcell Ozuna-Jorge Soler plus Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez on the hill is good enough to contend for a playoff series win maybe even two.
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09-29-24 02:26 PM |
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