The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 8/04
4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-210, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Rockies (41-71) took the opener 5-2, cashing as +155 road dogs. Then the Padres (60-52) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -210 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Rockies hand the ball to righty Cal Quantrill (7-7, 4.50 ERA) and the Padres counter with fellow righty Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.89 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -175 home favorite and Colorado a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -175 to -210. The Padres are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” dose of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a massive steam move in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 76-43 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites -200 or more are 73-28 (72%) with a 3% ROI this season. San Diego has correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Padres have the better bats, hitting .263 with 516 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .243 with 475 runs scored. Colorado is 17-42 on the road this season, the second worst road record in MLB.
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08-04-24 06:12 PM |
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