1:37 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 8)

The Tigers (49-50) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-3 as +100 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers send out righty Keider Montero (1-2, 5.47 ERA) and the Blue Jays (44-54) counter with righty Kevin Gausman (7-8, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -155 home favorite and Detroit a +130 road dog. Sharps like Toronto to avoid the sweep, as they’ve driven the Blue Jays up from -155 to -165. Essentially, all movement has been in favor of the Blue Jays, which is especially notable since they have lost two straight, are laying a moderately hefty price and also have a worse record. Toronto is receiving 60% of moneyline bets, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp money he form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 198-136 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 68-37 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 322-209 (61%) with a 4% ROI. Toronto also has value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored are both likely to benefit the team who is expected to win. Gausman has a 2.77 ERA in two July starts. Montero has a 3.77 ERA in three July starts.

2:35 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-130, 8.5)

The Orioles (60-38) have taken the first two games in this three-game series, winning the opener 9-1 as -120 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-4 as -105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Orioles start righty Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.38 ERA) and the Rangers (46-52) counter with lefty Andrew Heaney (3-10, 3.79 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public sees a “no brainer” play on Baltimore, who is laying a coin-flip price and has the far better record. However, despite 74% of bets taking Baltimore we’ve actually seen this line shoot up toward Texas -110 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rangers to avoid to the sweep, as the line is moving heavily in their favor despite receiving only 24% of moneyline bets. Texas also has “fishy” value as a sub .500 favorite on a losing skid playing a team with a far better record. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 322-209 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Texas also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is favored to win. Heaney has a 1.74 ERA in two July starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts.

4:07 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics (-135, 9)

The Athletics (39-61) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 13-3 as -120 home favorites and then cruising again yesterday 8-2 as -145 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Angels (41-57) tap righty Carson Fulmer (0-2, 3.45 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with righty Joey Estes (4-4, 5.29 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -130 home favorite and Los Angeles a +115 road dogs. Sharp seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the modest chalk with Oakland at home, driving the Athletics up from -130 to -135. Oakland is receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a slight line adjustment in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 68-37 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 198-136 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Athletics are 9-2 (82%) as a favorite this season. Oakland is 6-4 over their last 10 games, hitting .303. Los Angeles is 4-6 over their last 10 games, hitting just .213. Estes has a 1.91 ERA at home compared to 8.05 on the road.

Appreciate it