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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 7/19

Arizona (49-48) @ Cubs (47-51)
— Arizona hasn’t named a starter.

— Arizona is 8-4 in its last 12 games.
— Diamondbacks are 23-24 on road.
— Diamondbacks are 4-11 in road series openers.
— over 11-2 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-97
— record in first 5 innings: 44-36-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Steele is 2-0, 1.71 in his last six starts.
— Chicago is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— under 5-2 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-14
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-6
— He is 0-1, 3.00 in four starts vs Arizona.

— Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— They’re 25-21 at home.
— Cubs are 7-8 in home series openers.
— over 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 21-98
— record in first 5 innings: 39-43-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Philadelphia (62-34) @ Pittsburgh (48-48)
— Nola is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
— Phillies are 15-4 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six road starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 13-3-3
— He is 4-3, 3.98 in nine starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Phillies split their last eight games.
— They’re 25-18 on road.
— Phillies are 12-3 in road series openers.
— over 8-5 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 36-96
— record in first 5 innings: 60-29-7
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Perez is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
— Pittsburgh is 2-10 in his last 12 starts.
— over 5-2 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-4
— He is 4-1, 2.96 in eight starts vs Philly.

— Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven games.
— They’re 22-24 at home.
— Pirates are 9-6 in home series openers.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 18-96
— record in first 5 innings: 42-36-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Cincinnati (47-50) @ Washington (44-53)
— Montas is 1-2, 4.03 in his last five starts.
— Cincinnati is 2-10 in his last 12 starts.
— under 6-2 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 5-11-1
— He is 1-0, 6.14 in three games (1 start) vs Washington.

— Reds are 5-2 in their last seven games.
— They’re 22-22 on road.
— Reds are 14-3 in last 17 series openers.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 25-97
— record in first 5 innings: 43-42-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Corbin is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 1-10 in his last 11 starts.
— over 7-3 last ten starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 5-13-1
— He is 5-5, 4.50 in 15 starts vs Cincinnati.

— Nationals are 2-6 in their last eight games.
— They’re 20-24 at home.
— Nationals are 1-6 in last seven series openers.
— over 6-4 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 15-97
— record in first 5 innings: 40-49-8
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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NY Mets (49-46) @ Miami (33-63)
— Manaea is 2-0, 1.75 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 12-6 in his starts.
— under 5-2 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-4
— He is 1-1, 4.80 in three starts vs Miami

— New York is 7-2 in its last nine games.
— Mets are 23-20 on road.
— Mets are 10-3 in last 13 series openers.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 25-95
— record in first 5 innings: 41-38-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Cabrera is 0-2, 11.77 in his last four starts.
— Miami is 3-4 in his starts.
— over 6-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
— He is 1-2, 5.67 in seven starts against the Mets.

— Marlins are 3-10 in their last 13 games.
— Miami is 18-31 at home.
— Marlins are 5-4 in last nine home series openers.
— over 9-4 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 22-96
— record in first 5 innings: 28-58-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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St Louis (50-46) @ Atlanta (53-42)
— Gray is 0-2, 6.61 in his last three starts.
— St Louis is 11-6 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-2
— He is 0-3, 3.38 in six starts vs Atlanta

— Cardinals are 8-5 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 24-24 on road.
— Cardinals are 10-5 in road series openers.
— over 9-3 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-96
— record in first 5 innings: 35-46-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Schwellenbach is 2-2, 3.68 in four home starts.
— Atlanta is 3-5 in his starts.
— under 7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5
— He is gave up 4 runs in 5 IP at St Louis June 24th.

— Braves won five of last eight games.
— They’re 29-17 at home.
— Braves are 10-5 in home series openers.
— under 16-5 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-95
— record in first 5 innings: 46-36-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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San Francisco (47-50) @ Colorado (34-63)
— Giants haven’t named a starter.

— San Francisco is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Giants are 19-28 on road.
— Giants are 7-8 in road series openers.
— over 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 21-97
— record in first 5 innings: 37-45-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Quantrill is 0-3, 6.84 in his last five starts.
— Colorado is 5-2 in his home starts.
— over 5-1 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
— He is 3-0, 2.73 in five starts vs San Francisco.

— Rockies lost six of last eight games.
— They’re 20-27 at home.
— Rockies are 7-7 in home series openers.
— under 6-2 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 26-97
— record in first 5 innings: 38-47-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Tampa Bay (48-48) @ Bronx (58-40)
— Eflin is 2-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 8-2 in his last 10 starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-2
— He is 3-6, 5.45 in 15 starts vs New York.

— Tampa Bay is 4-2 in its last six games.
— Rays are 21-21 on road.
— Rays are 6-8 in road series openers.
— under 4-1 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-96
— record in first 5 innings: 34-47-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Cole is 2-0, 3.52 in his last three starts.
— New York is 3-2 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 4-7, 3.55 in 19 starts vs Tampa Bay

— New York is 9-20 in its last 29 games.
— They’re 25-19 at home.
— New York is 1-6 in last seven series openers.
— over 16-7 last 23 games
— scored run in first inning: 33-98
— record in first 5 innings: 51-35-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Detroit (47-50) @ Toronto (44-52)
— Flaherty is 5-1, 1.89 in his last six starts.
— Detroit is 6-3 in his road starts.
— under 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-3
— He is 2-1, 2.08 in three starts vs Toronto.

— Detroit is 8-2 in its last ten games.
— Tigers are 23-26 on road.
— Tigers are 8-8 in road series openers.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 30-97
— record in first 5 innings: 39-42-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Bassitt is 2-1, 3.93 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 2-5 in his last seven starts.
— over 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-6
— He is 4-3, 3.52 in nine starts vs Detroit.

— Toronto is 5-3 in its last eight games.
— Blue Jays are 21-24 at home.
— Blue Jays are 6-8 in home series openers.
— over 17-4 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-96
— record in first 5 innings: 41-43-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Baltimore (58-38) @ Texas (46-50)
— Burnes is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.
— Baltimore is 5-3 in his road starts.
— over 7-3 last ten starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-2
— He gave up a run in 7 IP, in his one start vs Texas.

— Baltimore is 1-6 in its last seven games.
— Orioles are 30-22 at home.
— Orioles are 10-7 in home series openers.
— under 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 21-96
— record in first 5 innings: 51-34-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Eovaldi is 3-0, 2.65 in his last five starts.
— Texas is 8-3 in his last 11 starts.
— over 5-2 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-5-6
— He is 8-2, 3.23 in 18 starts vs Baltimore

— Rangers are 7-2 in last nine games.
— They’re 24-21 at home.
— Rangers are 8-7 in home series openers.
— under 7-3 last 10 home games
— scored run in first inning: 32-96
— record in first 5 innings: 41-39-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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White Sox (27-71) @ Kansas City (52-45)
— Flexen is 0-2, 4.55 in his last five starts.
— Chicago lost his last 12 starts.
— under 4-32 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9-3
— He is 2-1, 2.25 in three starts vs Kansas City

— White Sox are 1-7 in last eight games.
— Chicago is 10-37 on road.
— White Sox are 1-14 in road series openers.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 19-98
— record in first 5 innings: 42-44 -12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Wacha is 2-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
— Kansas City is 5-2 in his home starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-4
— He is 3-1, 3.89 in seven starts vs Chicago

— Royals won four of last six games.
— Royals are 31-18 at home.
— Royals are 10-5 in home series openers.
— under 8-3 last 11 home games
— scored run in first inning: 25-97
— record in first 5 innings: 44-39-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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LA Angels (41-55) @ Oakland (37-61)
— Angels haven’t named a starter.

— Angels won four of last five games.
— They’re 19-26 on road.
— Angels are 8-7 in road series openers.
— under 5-0 last five road games
— scored run in first inning: 22-96
— record in first 5 innings: 32-54-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Sears is 2-0, 2.16 in his last three starts.
— Oakland is 8-11 in his starts.
— under 13-4 last 17 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-1
— He is 2-2, 4.01 in five starts vs Anaheim.

— A’s are 7-5 in last 12 games.
— Oakland is 7-5 in last 12 home games.
— A’s are 8-7 in home series openers.
— under 13-7 last 20 home games
— scored run in first inning: 19-98
— record in first 5 innings: 33-60-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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San Diego (50-49) @ Cleveland (58-37)
— Waldron is 0-2, 5.02 in his last four starts.
— San Diego is 4-6 in his road starts.
— under 13-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 6-10-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— Padres lost six of last seven games.
— They’re 24-21 on road.
— Padres are 8-7 in road series openers.
— over 15-6 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-99
— record in first 5 innings: 40-44-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Bibee is 2-2, 4.56 in his last four starts.
— Cleveland is 14-5 in his starts.
— under 9-5 last 14 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-5-3
— He gave up six runs in 4 IP, in his one start vs San Diego.

— Cleveland lost five of last seven games.
— Guardians are 9-2 in last 11 home games.
— Guardians are 10-4 in home series openers.
— under 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 26-95
— record in first 5 innings: 45-37-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Boston (53-42) @ Los Angeles (56-41)
— Pivetta is 0-2, 4.98 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— over 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He is 1-2, 3.80 in four starts against the Dodgers.

— Red Sox won 10 of last 13 games.
— They’re 29-17 on road.
— Red Sox are 9-6 in road series openers.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 29-95
— record in first 5 innings: 50-35-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Stone is 1-1, 4.32 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 12-5 in his starts.
— under 9-3 last 12 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-3
— He gave up 4 runs in 6 IP in his one game vs Boston.

— Dodgers are 5-10 in their last 15 games.
— Dodgers are 28-21 at home.
— Dodgers are 9-6 in home series openers.
— under 4-1 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-97
— record in first 5 innings: 48-39-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

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Trend: Colorado is 5-21 (19.2%, -13.63 units) in their last 26 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -52.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. SF)

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(951) ARIZONA (49-48) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (47-51)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (14-19, -10.24 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+124 at CHC)

(953) PHILADELPHIA (62-34) at (954) PITTSBURGH (48-48)
Trend: PHI good at night (42-18, +14.04 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 at PIT)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (49-46) at (958) MIAMI (33-63)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (6-28, -22.23 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs. NYM)

(959) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (960) ATLANTA (53-42)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (15-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(961) SAN FRANCISCO (47-50) at (962) COLORADO (34-63)
Trend: SF trending Over in divisional play (20-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10.5)

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(963) TAMPA BAY (48-48) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (58-40)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (47-27, +11.34 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-170 vs TB)

(965) DETROIT (47-50) at (966) TORONTO (44-52)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (14-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(967) BALTIMORE (58-38) at (968) TEXAS (46-50)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (13-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(969) CHICAGO-AL (27-71) at (970) KANSAS CITY (52-45)
Trend: KC better at home (31-18, +11.67 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-205 vs CWS)

(973) HOUSTON (50-46) at (974) SEATTLE (52-46)
Trend: Under the total is 6-1 this season in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(975) SAN DIEGO (50-49) at (976) CLEVELAND (58-37)
Trend: CLE good at home (30-11, +12.14 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs SD)

(977) BOSTON (53-42) at (978) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-41)
Trend: LAD slight Under against AL teams (8-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

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(955) CINCINNATI (47-50) at (956) WASHINGTON (44-53)
Trend: WSH is 2-9 (-7.10 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+105 vs. CIN)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (49-46) at (958) MIAMI (33-63)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 3-6 (-4.49 units) against NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-130 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 8-5 (+4.30 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 vs. NYM)

(959) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (960) ATLANTA (53-42)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 10-2 (+8.90 units) as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+105 at ATL)

(963) TAMPA BAY (48-48) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (58-40)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-5 (+7.25 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+142 at NYY)

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Best moneyline teams at All-Star Break

Guardians 58-37, +14.2 units
Phillies 62-34, +7.9
Orioles 58-38, +7.7
Brewers 55-42, +7.7
Red Sox 53-42, +7.6

Worst teams

Rangers 46-50, -8.1
Blue Jays 44-52, -12.7
Marlins 33-63, -18.2
White Sox 27-71, -30.9

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