Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz – Queen’s Club
Matteo Berrettini vs. Marcos Giron – Halle

I was a little surprised to see Alcaraz is just about a -300 favorite against Draper, even though I’m very high on the Brit’s game. I actually mentioned Draper as a Wimbledon sleeper a few weeks ago, noting he’s a good play at 100-1 at DraftKings. Well, Draper is now down to 40-1 there. However, this is a really tough draw for Draper. Alcaraz is the defending champion at Queen’s Club and took all of last week off. So, he’s going to be feeling very fresh when he gets out there. Meanwhile, Draper has played a lot of tennis over the last two weeks. On top of that, Alcaraz just has a little more variety than Draper, so I can see him utilizing his entire tool kit to get the better of the Brit. That’s why I’m playing a two-leg moneyline parlay with Alcaraz as the first bet.

With the second leg of this play, I’m going with Berrettini to beat Giron. I have been riding Berrettini throughout this grass-court season, as he’s a borderline top-five player on this surface. In fact, Berrettini has the third-highest raw Elo rating on grass and isn’t too far behind Novak Djokovic. The only concern with Berrettini is his health, but he has been looking great over the last few weeks. Well, I don’t see that changing against Giron. Berrettini has a booming first serve and his forehand is usually the biggest weapon on the court. So, even though Giron is a well-rounded player and has the ability to thrive on quicker courts, I don’t know what he can do to make Berrettini uncomfortable here.

PARLAY: Alcaraz ML + Berrettini ML (-134)

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Halle

Struff hasn’t lost a grass-court match this year, as he’s 4-0 on the surface. That might be a little confusing considering he has played in two tournaments and hasn’t won a title, but the world No. 41 had to withdraw before his quarter-final match in Stuttgart because of an illness. But overall, Struff has looked great on the grass, where his big serve and ability to play at the net makes it incredibly hard to break him. In fact, Struff’s 85.1% hold percentage in 2024 is the highest it has been since 2019, and that hold percentage is up at 90.5% on grass over the last 52 weeks. Well, I don’t see Struff having any trouble holding against Tsitsipas, even if the Greek star is better than any of the German’s recent opponents.

Overall, I just trust Struff to handle his business in the key moments in this match. Tsitsipas was barely able to beat Henri Squire in his last match, looking very uncomfortable on return and lacking his usual sharpness from the baseline. Struff has also had some success against Tsitsipas in the past, and the two have never played on a surface as quick as this one. These conditions should favor the German quite a bit.

Bet: Struff ML (+100)

Brandon Nakashima ML vs. Lorenzo Musetti – Queen’s Club

I never hesitate to back Musetti in the right matchup, as I’m extremely high on the Italian’s game. And Musetti has won some big matches over the last couple of weeks, which is nice considering he got off to a slow start to the season. One of those big wins was a victory over ‘s-Hertogenbosch champion Alex De Minaur in the opening round here. But Musetti now needs to try and back that up against Nakashima, who has a very effective grass-court game.

Nakashima is really good about hitting his spots on his serve, knows how to cover the court and has a big backhand. And the American is 6-2 in the eight full matches he has played on the grass this year — with some coming at the Challenger level — and I think he would have pulled out a win over Daniel Evans before the Brit retired last round. But regardless of the outcome there, Nakashima has played a lot of tennis on this surface thus far, and I think his straightforward approach will win out against the flashier Musetti. That said, I’m playing him at plus-money odds. Nakashima is just a little sturdier with the ball on his racquet. That should matter at some point in the match, and that could be the case later in sets.

Bet: Nakashima ML (+102)