Let's get the action started this week folks
GL

Manchester United will look to continue their strong form vs. Leeds United — their first of two meetings in the span of a week — during the midweek battle at Old Trafford on Wednesday afternoon.

The Red Devils are currently positioned third in the table and could draw level on points with Manchester City with a win. On the other hand, the Peacocks are dealing with fears of being relegated, sitting in 17th place with 18 points.

With both sides trending in opposite directions, will we see United announce themselves in the title race, or can Leeds break out of their slump and gain more ground above the relegation zone?

Leeds fired American coach Jesse Marsch on Monday. Many found the firing confusing, given that the club kept the Wisconsin native through the entire winter transfer window and then let him go after just one match with his new signings. One of those signings was US Men’s National Team member Weston Mckennie.

However, regardless of if you agree with the decision or not, ownership was displeased with the direction Leeds seemed to be heading. The Peacocks were winless in their last seven league matches and are just one spot above the relegation zone halfway through the season.

With Marsch’s dismissal, the club will now hope to benefit from a new manager boost like Everton did over the weekend, as they beat Arsenal. Whether you are a believer of this myth or not, Leeds are due for some positive regression regardless of who they have at the helm.

The Peacocks have a -3.4 xGD, which is the 12th best in the league, meaning they have played well enough to be five positions above the table than where they currently are, and well beyond the regulation zone.

Manchester United are one of the most in-form teams in the world at the moment, winning 14 matches in a row at Old Trafford. They also have one of the most in-form players in the world in Marcus Rashford.

Since returning from the World Cup hiatus, the 25-year old has found the back of the net in 11 of his 13 all-competition matches for United. He sits fifth in the EPL Golden Boot race with 10 league goals.

However, despite Rashford’s brilliance, United will be without their most important player on Wednesday: Casemiro. The Brazilian midfielder is facing a three-game ban due to earning a straight red card in their previous outing against Crystal Palace.

This puts manager Erik Ten Hag in a difficult position as Casemiro’s impact cannot be overstated. According to premierleague.com, with the 30-year old on the field, United average 2.3 points per game and concede just 0.7 goals per game. In his absence, United average 1.7 points per game and are significantly weaker defensively, conceding 2.0 goals per game.

With midfielder Christian Eriksen also out due to an injury (ankle), new signing Marcel Sabitzer from Bayern Munich will be tossed into the ring and will be expected to fill the void of the former Real Madrid star.

After both Arsenal and Manchester City dropped points this past weekend, the Red Devils can smell blood in the water and will be looking to strike against a struggling Leeds team.

Opponents 20+ Book Pts

90% Celta
90% Espanyol
90% Napoli
90% Roma
85% Barca
85% Madrid
85% Rayo
85% Valencia
82% Nantes
81% Milan
80% Sevilla
79% Bremen
76% Bologna
76% Juventus
76% Lecce
76% Monza
76% Sampdoria
76% Udinese
75% Atléti
75% Athletic
75% Cádiz
75% Mallorca

Opponents 20+ Book Pts

81% Man City
80% Cardiff
80% Colchester
79% Barrow
77% QPR
77% Watford
76% Sunderland
75% Arsenal
75% Wimbledon
73% Oxford
72% Norwich
71% Palace
70% Accrington
70% Posh
69% Blackburn
69% Bristol Rovers
69% Wigan
68% Cambridge

AC Milan have played their way out of the Serie A title race and nearly out of the top four race with their performances and results since returning from the World Cup break.

They’ve won one, drawn two and lost five in all competitions since returning and haven’t won a single match in their last seven contests as the Rossoneri host Torino in the San Siro on Friday.

Even though Milan won the Scudetto in May, there are calls from fans to sack manager Stefano Pioli with a consequential clash against Tottenham Hotspur also looming in the Champions League on Tuesday to look forward to. Milan have dealt with some injuries and key departures, but they’ve also just regressed hard from their period of over-performance from a finishing variance perspective.

If you’re struggling to create chances, one of the last teams in Italy you want to face is Torino. The defense can’t stay this bad based on past showings and that looks to be more of a blip. But, Milan’s attack still has issues and the under remains the value side on Friday.

This total actually opened at 2.5 with the under at plus money, but it’s been solidly bet down now. There’s plenty of lineup uncertainty, but even if Olivier Giroud and Leão do start on Friday, the attacking problems run deeper than that right now.

Milan won’t have Bennacer back for this match and the attack is quite disjointed now that he is injured. With Leão in poor form, Milan’s attack is closer to that of a league average side in Serie A.

Given Torino’s approach as an underdog and rock solid defense, the under 2.5 is the play

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

77% Stenhousemuir
74% Bochum
73% Fulham
73% Lorient
73% Rennes
71% Milan
70% East Fife
70% Liverpool
68% Angers
68% Gladbach
68% Hoffenheim
68% Leipzig
68% Toulouse
68% Troyes
67% Inter
67% Man City
67% Salernitan

BEST BTTS TEAMS

86% Stenhousemuir
82% Troyes
77% Lorient
77% Strasbourg
75% Girona
73% Rennes
71% Milan
70% East Fife
70% Espanyol
70% Stranraer
68% Bremen
68% Charlton
68% Frankfurt
68% Gladbach
68% Hoffenheim
68% Monaco
68% Stuttgart
67% Bologna

a no sweat under W with Torino
GL

Another week brings another London derby for Chelsea, who will play their fourth match against a London club in the last five matches on Saturday when the Blues travel to East London to take on West Ham.

The Blues took just four points from nine available in a match against Crystal Palace and two against Fulham. It won’t be any easier for them on the road against a team desperate for points.

David Moyes’ seat as manager is becoming hotter, but a win against Everton and draw at Newcastle appears to have saved him for now. The Hammers have played way below their talent level this season and the market knows that this team isn’t really the 17th-best in the Premier League.

Both attacks have struggled for goals in the last few months and the market has adjusted this total downward to 2.25. That presents a good buy low opportunity for both attacks, whose underlying numbers have shown signs of life as of late.

Chelsea’s struggles are one of the main storylines in the Premier League, but the underlying numbers are starting to improve for the Blues under Graham Potter. Chelsea have won the xG battle and earned more chances created in four consecutive games, even though the Blues have only won one of the matches. Chelsea have totaled 6.5 xG in those four matches, including 1.6 at Anfield and 2.1 at Fulham while playing down a man for 30 minutes.

Most notably, Chelsea will have João Felix back in the lineup as he returns from red card suspension. Felix totaled 0.8 xG and six shots in his 60-minute debut for the Blues and should provide an upgrade over Kai Havertz — who has struggled for finishing in the last month.

Chelsea also have Reece James back in the starting XI. Based on the attacking output splits with him on and off the pitch, you could make the case he’s Chelsea’s most important attacking player with his ball progression and shot production when he does get the ball or his body into the penalty area.

There’s a lot of new pieces competing for time and places looking to make an impression right now for Chelsea. Enzo Fernandes looks like a solid add and one that frees up Conor Gallagher to add more going forward. The underlying process for the Blues suggests that goals are absolutely coming in the future.

As good as West Ham are defending their penalty area, the market has soured too far on Chelsea’s attack.

Based on just the most basic xG vs. goals analysis, West Ham have been the most unfortunate finishing attack in the entire league. No team has underperformed more than them and that alone is a reason to look to buy on them from a market perspective.

The Hammers have produced 26.2 xG this year – right around league average – and they’ve scored 18 goals from those chances.

There’s no guarantee that the positive regression will come on Saturday, but in the long run, teams will usually regress back toward their finishing means. The Hammers will have more available minutes from new signing Danny Ings and they may have Gianluca Scamacca available off the bench for this one as well.

The attack was already trending up prior to that anyway. It’s a group that has produced at least 1 xG in seven consecutive league matches. They’re the least efficient team in the entire league at turning final third possession into box entries and to me that suggests that the attack isn’t clicking.

More progressive passes into the final third usually means that more chances are coming in the future. The Hammers are 10th in field tilt, eighth in shots per match and yet are priced as a much worse attack.

When these two sides met in the sixth matchweek, the total was juiced to the over at 2.5. It was clear by then that Chelsea had some attacking issues and the Blues were an overvalued favorite as a -1 spread favorite at home. There was a controversial call that cost West Ham a late equalizer in that match too in an eventual 2-1 defeat.

Now the total has dropped all the way to 2.25, a sign that the market has reached the floor on Chelsea as an attack. Chelsea’s defense is far from elite and both attacks have positive regression coming based on underlying numbers.

Bayern Munich’s lead at the top of the Bundesliga remained at one point over Union Berlin after both clubs won at the weekend. RB Leipzig dropped points in their attempt to chase down Bayern in their goalless draw with Cologne, while Borussia Dortmund got a goal from Sebastien Haller in a 4-1 victory against shorthanded Freiburg.

The league is very congested at the top from first place Bayern on 40 points down to Freiburg in sixth on 34. The highlight match of the weekend is Union Berlin’s trip to RB Leipzig, and while it’s not included in this preview amongst my best bets, I did take Leipzig -135 on the three-way moneyline at home and would play it up to -140.

Bayern should have no issues dispatching Bochum at home, but the Bavarians do have a Tuesday clash with PSG in the Champions League looming. Dortmund have a tricky away day against Werder Bremen, who beat them in Dortmund early in the season. Eintracht Frankfurt also are a toss-up on the road against surging Cologne in one of the two Sunday matches.

From a buy-low and sell-high perspective, this is the spot of the weekend in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart sit in 16th with a positive xG difference and Freiburg are sixth with basically the same exact underlying numbers.

There’s not much of a difference in the true talent between these two teams, except that Freiburg has had a bunch of variance and bounces go their way while Stuttgart has all of the variance go against them.

By a lot of metrics, Stuttgart have actually been the better team in the Bundesliga this season. They do a better job than Freiburg in the midfield of progressing the ball into the opposition penalty area and are better at preventing opponents from getting into their box. Stuttgart’s attack is fourth in expected threat going forward, which is considerably better than Freiburg’s 10th.

Defensively, the two teams are quite comparable. Stuttgart allow more high quality chances, but Freiburg allows more volume of shots. On aggregate, Freiburg rank sixth in xG allowed and Stuttgart are seventh. When you consider all of Stuttgart’s underlying numbers, it’s a matter of incredible misfortune that they’re not sitting higher in the table. They’ve won the xG battle in five of their last six matches — but have just one win to show for those performances.

Most of Stuttgart’s defensive underperformance is due to poor shot-stopping from the goalkeeper Florian Muller. His data suggests he’s below average, but not one of the two worst in the league as he’s been this season.

This is a good spot to buy Stuttgart in a match that should be closer to a tossup, even in the German forest at Freiburg.

This is a surprisingly cheap price on Mainz at home, not all that dissimilar to two weeks ago when they thrashed Bochum at home, 5-2.

Mainz have regressed from last year’s highs, but Bo Svensson’s side is still clearly better than Augsburg and safely in the mid-table in Germany. The -115 moneyline price implies that they’re only marginally better than Augsburg in true talent on a neutral field. Nothing in either team’s statistical profile suggests that is the case.

Augsburg are more reliant on set pieces for attacks than almost any team in Germany, and now they face the league’s best set piece defense. Augsburg aren’t good at sustaining possession in the opponent’s final third or getting into the penalty area. Despite the defensive regression, Mainz are still third in touches allowed in their own box.

This Augsburg defense is also the worst in Germany — they’ve conceded the most big scoring chances, they’re second to last in passes allowed and dead last in touches allowed in their own box. Mainz’s poor recent form and Augsburg’s recent home wins against Gladbach and Leverkusen are inflating their price in this market.

Away from home this season, Augsburg have a -0.94 xGD per match.

Leicester City will look to avenge their worst defeat of the season when they host a resurgent Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday.

Their 37 goals conceded are the third-most in the Premier League and the most of any side that begins the weekend outside the relegation places. A half-dozen of those came in a 6-2 defeat at Tottenham back on Sept. 17, including a second-half hat trick from Son Heung-min.

That was the fifth win out of Spurs’ first seven league games. More recently, the Londoners are on the verge of regaining a place in the top four after consecutive 1-0 league wins away to Fulham and home against Manchester City.

Meanwhile, the Foxes are coming off of a 4-2 win at Aston Villa that snapped a five-match winless run in the league and took the Midlands club up to 14th. Even so, only three points separate Leicester from the relegation zone and 18th-place Everton.

It can be easy to get carried away by the score of these teams’ first meeting. However, the bulk of that damage came late after the match was decided. The teams’ combined xG of 4.0 was still on the high side, but at the same time four goals shy of the aggregate total.

And despite challenging for the top four, Spurs are content to play a low block on their travels even in games in which they’re favored. That could lead to a much tighter contest if the creative onus here falls on Leicester.

The xG totals for both teams echo this. Teams are combining for just 2.1 xG per match in Leicester’s 10 league home games and 2.57 xG in Spurs’ 11 away games.

It’s true this Foxes roster is stronger now, but Tottenham are unlikely to gift the same kind of chances that Villa did.

Backing a lower total in some form here is probably the best play.

Southampton vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, Feb. 11, 10 a.m. ET

Let's begin with a huge relegation clash as Wolves visit fellow strugglers Southampton in a massive game for both clubs. This will be an extremely tense and nervous affair and I revisit a bet I have given strongly many times this season in games involving Wolves – Halftime Draw!

This time, however, my reasoning is not just based on Wolves presence in the game but on their opponents as well. Southampton has only scored 1 goal under their new manager, Nathan Jones, a man who even though he is relatively new in post is very much a man under pressure. Their last home game in the EPL was a very poor performance in the 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa where the supporters picked up on the players' nervousness and the atmosphere became very tense and negative. And, then, in their last match they offered nothing in a 3-0 road defeat at Brentford.

This fixture is not known for goals or excitement and last season it was 0-0 at halftime and the return fixture at Wolves this season was 1-0 to Wolves. That goal literally came with the last kick of the first half so you can see why I am so keen on this being a Draw at halftime at what I feel is a big price at +110!

Now let’s turn our attention to Wolves, a happy hunting ground for us this year for Draw at halftime picks. Wolves have drawn 11 of their 21 fixtures at halftime this season and that stat is stronger against fellow strugglers like Southampton. New manager Julen Lopetegui is trying to put his stamp on the team and play more expansive football and will have been heartened by their 3-0 home victory against Liverpool, which is in a terrible run of form, though, and Wolves had lost their previous 2 games before that. They struggle to score goals away from home and will defend very deep against the Saints on Saturday.

I believe this will be a tense, nervy encounter, especially in the first half where both teams will sit back and be desperate not to lose. Wolves' halftime draw has been a regular cash for us this season and when you add in Southampton, which is struggling to find the net, we have an excellent opportunity to land this pick yet again!

Arsenal look to rebound from their second loss in the Premier League when they host the red-hot Brentford.

The Gunners suffered a setback in their title challenge last weekend, losing to Everton at Goodison Park last Saturday. It was just the third time that the Gunners have dropped points and they better be careful to not overlook Brentford, which is possible as they have their biggest game of the season against Manchester City on Wednesday.

The Bees are in sublime form at the moment. Their 3-0 win over Southampton marked the ninth-straight match where they have been unbeaten. Their last loss came on October 23rd against Aston Villa, so it’s been over three months since Thomas Frank’s side has suffered a defeat. They were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal at the Brentford Community Stadium in the reverse fixture, so they will be looking for revenge.

Brentford have been one of the best defenses outside of the big six this season and are very difficult to breakdown once you enter the final third. Everton gave them the blueprint on how to stifle Arsenal’s offense and they should be able to make life difficult on the Gunners.

The flip side is Brentford’s offense has been running a little too hot at the moment and haven’t ran into a defense that can defend in transition like Arsenal’s.

For the second time in five days, Leeds United and Manchester United will face off against one another in the Premier League.

The two sides played in Manchester in a makeup match on Wednesday, as United came back from down 2-0 to split the points in a 2-2 draw.

The Red Devils closed as a -210 moneyline favorite on Wednesday at home. Now with home field flipped, Manchester United is a -115 road favorite at Elland Road.

The Peacocks fired American manager Jesse Marsch on Monday and have a team in place to manage the transition period until a new full-time manager is brought in for the future. Leeds still played in classic Marsch style on Wednesday — a midfield turnover in the first minute led to a goal within 10 seconds of possession turning over.

United struggled to grab full control of the midfield due to its injuries and key suspensions, and they’ll have a difficult time doing so away from home on Sunday.

The Peacocks were undervalued on Wednesday, and since the market hasn’t adjusted and basically just flipped home field in the betting market, Leeds remains undervalued on Sunday in the rematch.

Sancho being fit and in form is a significant upgrade to the United team in the medium term, but it doesn’t play a huge role if Erik ten Hag is going to start the same XI on Sunday as he did on Wednesday.

Leeds can still disrupt the United midfield, and the Peacocks’ frenetic style and uptempo game are more potent in front of the raucous home crowd. The Peacocks remain due for more positive regression when you compare underlying numbers to actual results.

Manchester City look to rebound after their loss to Tottenham last weekend when they host Aston Villa on Sunday.

City’s title hopes took a blow last Sunday, as their loss kept them five points behind Arsenal. It’s been a bad run of form for Manchester City. who now have sanctions looming over their heads plus a huge match against Arsenal that could ultimately decide who wins the league on Wednesday.

Unai Emery suffered just his second Premier League defeat at the helm of Aston Villa, as they allowed Leicester to put four past them at home in a 4-2 loss.

The defensive performance and mistakes were shocking, but Aston Villa have proven to be a formidable foe for the big six this season and they should be able to give Manchester City a lot of problems.

Betting on Manchester City suddenly turning things around after creating less than 1 xG against Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United is a bit foolish in my opinion.

Without Joao Cancelo to provide overlapping runs and progressive passes, City are left without the tactical flexibility that Pep Guardiola is used to.

Emery is one of the best managers in the world as an underdog. He consistently gave Barcelona and Real Madrid headaches when he was at Villarreal and even took the Yellow Submarine to the Champions League semifinals last season, knocking out Bayern Munich in the process.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, Feb. 12, 11:30 a.m. ET

On Sunday, Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, is looking to bounce back quickly from its 1-0 defeat away at Tottenham last Sunday, where Harry Kane scored the winner. Guardiola came under very rare criticism for his team selection after leaving star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne on the bench.

I have very strong reasoning to believe that Guardiola and his team of stars will quickly put that defeat and criticism behind them this Sunday and make Aston Villa pay dearly! City under Pep are simply the Bounceback Kings of the EPL!

In the last four seasons, City has lost a total of 20 EPL matches and their response to those defeats has been nothing short of remarkable. It has been a total of 19 wins and one Draw and proves they come back hard and come back quickly, which is the sign of a truly great team and a great manager. Villa have been a team they have feasted on in recent seasons, winning all 10 of their last 10 meetings and eight of those 10 victories have been by two or more goals, which will see this bet cash for us.

At home, striker Haaland has been rampant and he will be keen to put a rare poor game against Tottenham behind him. He will be heartened that Villa looked defensively poor in its last game, a 4-2 defeat against Midlands rivals Leicester, which saw angry supporters boo them off. To be fair, Villa has improved under new manager Unai Emery and they sit comfortably in 11th place. They look like a much stronger team than under previous manager Steve Gerard and I expect them to comfortably keep their EPL status under the new boss. I do expect Haaland and City to put on a show on Sunday given their incredible record of bounce backs – and in this fixture in general – for them to cover the -1.75 goals in the Asian Handicap.

City was let off the hook somewhat by leaders Arsenal also losing last weekend, which means City is not out of this title race but they simply must not slip up again.

I circled this spot a few weeks ago as a place to bet against Eintracht Frankfurt once again. Frankfurt dispatched a poor Hertha Berlin side at home last week, and they remain unbeaten since play resumed post-World Cup. Frankfurt have two wins against lowly Schalke and Hertha and two fortunate draws with Freiburg and Bayern Munich.

This is a similar spot to last week when Köln’s defense totally shut down Leipzig. Like Leipzig, Frankfurt are at the top of their market price here.

By just about any metric, Köln are elite defensively. They’re top-five in xG allowed per match. The set piece defense is second only to Mainz, they’re top three in big scoring chances conceded and top six in touches allowed in their own box.

Compare this to a Frankfurt attack that has below average shot production and ball progression numbers. The attack is built on elite and sustainable finishing quality and it created just 0.2 xG vs. a solid Freiburg defense and 0.6 xG against Bayern in the last two weeks. Even the attacking showing against Schalke was less than impressive. Frankfurt have major attacking regression coming once they stop finishing at 35% over their xG numbers.