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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NCAAB Lagniappe 2/01
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1531) BINGHAMTON vs. (1532) MD-BALT COUNTY
Favoring: BINGHAMTON against the spread.
Play Against - A home team (MD-BALT COUNTY) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +3.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1523) ALBANY vs. (1524) UMASS-LOWELL
Favoring: ALBANY against the spread.
Play Against - A home team (UMASS-LOWELL) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +3.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1543) ARMY vs. (1544) LEHIGH
Favoring: LEHIGH against the spread.
Play Against - An underdog (ARMY) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1531) BINGHAMTON vs. (1532) MD-BALT COUNTY
Favoring: BINGHAMTON against the spread.
Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (MD-BALT COUNTY) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +2.8 units).
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02-01-23 08:36 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (685) GEORGIA vs. (686) AUBURN
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams against the total (GEORGIA) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against a good free throw shooting team (69-73%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games
(50-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +31.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2 +6.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (685) GEORGIA vs. (686) AUBURN
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams against the total (GEORGIA) - excellent FT shooting team (>=73%) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game)
(50-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +31.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2 +6.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (685) GEORGIA vs. (686) AUBURN
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams against the total (GEORGIA) - excellent FT shooting team (>=73%) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games
(50-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +31.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2 +6.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (721) SMU vs. (722) TULANE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TULANE) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season
(43-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3 -0.3 units).
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02-01-23 08:36 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (677) GEORGIA TECH vs. (678) LOUISVILLE
Favoring: LOUISVILLE on the first half line.
Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (GEORGIA TECH) - average defensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after scoring 55 points or less
(53-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.7%, +34.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-1 +5.9 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1529) RADFORD vs. (1530) PRESBYTERIAN
Favoring: PRESBYTERIAN on the first half line.
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (RADFORD) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 55 points or less
(67-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +38.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3 +4.7 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (721) SMU vs. (722) TULANE
Favoring: TULANE on the first half line.
Play Against - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (SMU) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (74-78 PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (711) N IOWA vs. (712) DRAKE
Favoring: DRAKE on the first half line.
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DRAKE) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games
(115-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.9%, +52.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (13-6 +6.4 units).
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02-01-23 08:38 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (715) SF AUSTIN ST vs. (716) NEW MEXICO ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (SF AUSTIN ST) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 3 or more consecutive road losses
(51-18 since 1997.) (73.9%, +31.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2 +0.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1537) HOLY CROSS vs. (1538) BOSTON U
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams against the total (HOLY CROSS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
(110-55 since 1997.) (66.7%, +49.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-4 +7.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (705) MINNESOTA vs. (706) RUTGERS
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3 +3.7 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (1529) RADFORD vs. (1530) PRESBYTERIAN
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 (RADFORD) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games
(37-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3 -1.3 units).
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02-01-23 08:38 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Tennessee–Florida rivalry hits the hardwood on Wednesday night as the two programs clash in an SEC matchup.
The Volunteers come into this game ranked No. 2 in the country, with an 18-3 overall record and a 7-1 mark in the SEC.
Meanwhile, the Gators own a 12-9 record on the season, but they have been a tough out for multiple top teams in the conference.
If you like watching defense, this is the game for you, as this sets up to be a slugfest between two conference rivals.
Coach Rick Barnes was able to secure some revenge on his former school by beating No. 10 Texas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.
It was another huge win to add to the Volunteers’ resume as they fight for a top seed in the NCAA tournament.
On the year, Barnes’ squad is 4-1 against Quad 1 opposition, which includes wins over No. 8 Kansas, then-No. 13 Maryland and USC.
The defense has been the strength of the Vols. It’s the best unit in the country in AdjD, EFG% and defending 3-pointers, according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, the Vols are also ninth in forcing turnovers and 12th in opponents’ 2-point shooting.
If Barnes can get enough from his roster on the offensive end of the floor, this has the looks of a team that can make a long run in March.
In his debut season with the program, coach Todd Golden has his team in position to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Gators come into this contest on the bubble, according to multiple Bracketology sites.
The Gators rank 51st in the NET Rankings, but they are only 1-7 against Quad 1 teams. However, they have had some very close losses.
Golden’s squad lost by two to No. 19 Florida Atlantic, by three at No. Auburn and by a combined five points in a pair of losses to Texas A&M.
You have to think the close losses could turn around in Florida’s favor in the final stages of the season.
Similar to the Vols, the Gators are known for their strong defense, which ranks inside the top 15 in AdjD, EFG% and 2-point%. They are also 56th in defending the 3-point line, so points may be hard to come by in this contest.
When I look at the odds for this game at FanDuel, I do see this as a potential sandwich spot; Tennessee could be overlooking this game in between playing two nationally-ranked programs.
However, I feel the best value is on the total.
For all of the great things the Gators do defensively, they have struggled to score the basketball, ranking outside the top 190 in AdjO (195th), EFG% (238th), 2-point shooting (192nd) and 3-point% (263rd).
You also have to compare their results against similar opposition.
When Florida has played the better defensive teams in Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Auburn and Kansas State, Golden’s squad has only averaged 58.6 points. This same bet would have cashed in all five matchups.
Yes, the Volunteers have dominated SEC opponents, but we haven’t seen them do it this season against a top defensive unit away from home. This was the same Tennessee program that was held to 63 points at Ole Miss and 70 at MSU, with both contests finishing under this number.
Once you add in the fact that Florida’s tempo has slowed in conference play, I really don’t see this as a high-scoring affair.
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02-01-23 09:06 AM |
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