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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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On Thursday, in Korea, both the Hanwha Eagles (12-38) and SK Wyverns (14-36) lost again — bringing their respective losing streaks to four and five games — as both teams pace for record-setting 100-loss seasons in the KBO.
In Japan’s Central League, the Hanshin Tigers (2-10) are also pacing for a 100-loss season through two weeks of play, and they are already setting records in futility. The Orix Buffaloes (2-10) have a matching record in Japan’s Pacific League.
Bad baseball teams substantially underperform relative to their projections – just as good teams overperform those projections over the course of a full season. Think about the Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers as compared to the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees.
Typically, you can find betting value on these bad teams on almost any given day — whether playing their moneyline or trying the over on their team totals — but you need to be selective with your plays.
All three clubs I mentioned at the top appear to be in the midst of an offensive funk – but the Buffaloes (80 wRC+ in 2019), Eagles (78 wRC+), Tigers (80 wRC+ in 2019), and Wyverns (75 wRC+) should be scoring more frequently than they are; they just don’t cash in with two outs or runners in scoring position, while their opponents do.
Unfortunately for bad teams, this is a feature – not a bug.
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07-03-20 10:18 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions
Twins moneyline: -121
Lions moneyline: -106
Over/under: 9.5
Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Probable Pitchers: LG Twins (Tyler Wilson) vs. Samsung Lions (Jung-hyun Baek)
The Twins (28-22) are 3-7 in their past ten games while the Lions (27-24) are 8-2, closing the standings gap between these two teams to 1.5 games, as the Lions have pulled within one game of the final playoff spot.
The season series between these two teams is tied 3-3, and all three games in this weekend’s series will be crucial. On Friday, Tyler Wilson (4.38 FIP) will face the Lions for the second time this season (7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K on May 2), while Jung-hyun Baek will hope to avenge a rough start against the Twins from June 4 (4 IP, 11 R, 14 H, 0 BB, 3 K).
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
The 32-year old Baek only managed 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in 2019 (career 7.5 K/9) with a 1.46 strikeout to walk ratio (career 2.08 K/BB) – but his metrics have rebounded in 2020 (7.1 K/9, 3.00 K/BB) over a seven start sample.
In fact, after that rough outing against the Twins in early June, Baek has settled in nicely – allowing just four runs over his past four starts (24 IP, 15 H, 8 BB, 18 K).
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07-03-20 10:20 AM |
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