The Dinos, Heroes, and Bears are now projected to finish in first place a combined 93% of the time, and to win the KBO 83.1% of the time.

No team has improved upon its preseason projection more than the first-place Dinos, whose Korean Series’ odds have increased by 31.1% (from 6% to 37.1%).

The Heroes (+1%) have benefitted from a recent hot streak. These projections do not account for their recent free-agent signing of former top MLB prospect Addison Russell (.704 OPS in MLB). He should provide a significant boost to the Heroes’ offense after they cut the struggling Taylor Motter (.339 OPS in 10 KBO games).

The Bears’ chances to win the KBO have dropped by 9% (from 30% to 21%), but their betting odds have also increased substantially, and the defending KBO champions now offer slight value in the futures market. Their rotation, led by Raul Alcantara and Chris Flexen, just isn’t as dominant as it was in 2019, and they have struggled to a 3-6 record against the Dinos; but they do offer betting value.

Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes
Bears moneyline: -120
Heroes moneyline: -106
Over/under: 10.5
Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: Doosan Bears (Hui-kwan Yu) vs. Kiwoom Heroes (Seung-ho Lee)

The Bears and Heroes meet for the first of 16 times this season on Tuesday, for what is sure to be a competitive season series between what appear to be two of the top three teams in the league.

The Bears have been about 10% better offensively (118 wRC+ vs. 108 wRC+), while the Heroes pitching staff (4.43 FIP vs. 4.55 FIP) has a slight edge.

They should have a slight advantage in Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup, too, with 21-year-old Seung-ho Lee (5.00 FIP) facing veteran Hui-kwan Yu (5.47 FIP).

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

Yu has been remarkably consistent, recording 10 or more wins in each season dating back to 2013 — and he already has five victories in 2020. But the more lively baseball has been unkind to him this season, causing his HR/9 rate to climb from 0.4 back to 1.0; and his BABIP has surged by nearly 50 points.

Lee posted a 4.35 FIP over 23 starts last season and was slightly below league average (4.17 FIP). His 2020 command metrics are on par with 2019, and I still think that he’s around 5-8% worse than a league-average starter.

Lee has some upside, however, if he can begin to harness command, and he didn’t walk a batter in either of his past two outings (combined 12 innings pitched).

Tigers @ Heroes
Hanwha Eagles (12-36):
SHJang is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts, 1-1, 6.84 in five road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-7 Team in first 5 innings: 1-5-2
Allowed run in first inning: 3-8 Totals: over 6-2

— Hanwha lost nine of its last 12 games.
— Eagles lost 12 of their last 14 road games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Eagles are 4-12 in series openers, 2-6 on road.

Kia Tigers (24-21):
KYIm is 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts, 3-1, 3.86 at home.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-8 Totals: under 5-0-1 last six

— Tigers lost four of their last five games.
— Kia won seven of its last eight home games.
— Over is 7-2-1 in last 10 Tiger home games.
— Tigers are 10-6 in series openers, 4-3 at home.

Wiz @ Twins
KT Wiz (21-26):
MSKim is 1-0, 4.58 in four starts, 0-0, 4.32 in two road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-1 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-4 Totals: over 4-0

— Wiz won three of their last four games.
— Wiz won five of their last six road games.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Wiz are 5-11 in series openers, 2-6 on road.

LG Twins (27-20)
MHLee is 2-2, 1.85 in four starts, 1-2, 2.37 at home.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-4 Totals: under 4-0

— Twins lost seven of their last nine games.
— Twins lost seven of their last eight home games.
— Under is 6-2 in Twins’ last eight games.
— Twins are 9-7 in series openers, 5-4 at home.

Giants @ Dinos
Lotte Giants (22-23)
DWKim is making his first ’20 start; he’s allowed 8 runs in 15.2 IP in 14 relief stints.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Giants lost six of their last nine games.
— Lotte lost four of its last five road games.
— Under is 4-1 in Giants’ last five road games.
— Lotte are 8-8 in series openers, 2-6 on road.

NC Dinos (32-14)
Wright is 3-0, 4.09 in his last four starts, 2-0, 3.71 in three home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 7-2 Team in first 5 innings: 6-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-9 Totals: over 3-1 last four

— NC won seven of its last ten games.
— Dinos won three of last four home games.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Dinos are 11-4 in series openers, 5-3 at home.

Bears @ Heroes:
Doosan Bears (28-19):
HKYu is 5-0, 4.89 in his last eight starts, 2-0, 8.80 in four road outings.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-3 Team in first 5 innings: 6-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 7-9 Totals: over 6-2-1

— Bears lost three of their last four games.
— Doosan won five of its last six road games.
— Over is 6-4 in Bears’ last 10 games.
— Doosan is 10-6 in series openers, 6-1 on road.

Kiwoom Heroes (30-18):
SHLee is 1-0, 2.35 in his last four starts, 0-1, 8.07 in six home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: under 7-2

— Heroes won ten of their last 11 games.
— Kiwoom won 11 of its last 16 home games.
— Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 Kiwoom home games.
— Kiwoom are 11-5 in series openers, 6-2 at home.

Wyverns @ Lions:
SK Wyverns (14-33):
JHPark is 0-3, 11.57 in his last three starts, 1-0, 3.71 in three road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-6 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 4-9 Totals: 3-3-3

— Wyverns lost 10 of their last 12 games.
— SK lost seven of its last eight road games.
— Wyverns’ bullpen is 3-13 this season.
— Under is 9-4-1 in Wyverns’ last 14 games.
— SK is 5-11 in series openers, 2-3 on road.

Samsung Lions (24-24):
CHChoi is 2-2, 4.88 in his last five starts, 3-1, 3.86 at home.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-7 Totals: 3-3-1

— Lions won five of their last seven games overall.
— Samsung is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
— Over is 3-1 in Lions’ last four home games.
— Lions are 7-9 in series openers, 4-4 at home.