Let's kickoff the weekend with a couple of Friday matches
GL

Sevilla’s hold on the fourth and final Champions League spot could get a lot tighter with a victory as huge favorites over Valladolid. Los Nervionenses lead Getafe, Villareal and Real Sociedad by four, five and six points respectively in the race for fourth place and, of those teams, only Villareal seems to be in form.

Like their rivals, Sevilla have been inconsistent since La Liga resumed play. Los Nervionenses followed up a 2-0 win over Real Betis in the Seville Derby with three straight draws, though one of them was an impressive nil-nil result against Barcelona.

Despite their pedestrian results, Sevilla’s hallmark defense has looked impressive in their first four matches back in action. Julen Lopetegui’s side has only allowed three goals in their last four matches and only one of those opponents (Villareal) was able to create more than 1.0 expected goals against Los Nervionenses.

The fact that Sevilla were able to hold Barcelona to just 0.82 xG in their meeting tells you how impressive they can be when they’re operating at their best.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Sevilla aren’t a one-trick pony. Their defense may define them, but Sevilla’s offensive output ranks among the best in Spain in 2019-20. Los Nervionenses rank fifth in La Liga with 46.49 expected goals and their 5.28 xGF since play resumed also is the fifth-best mark in the circuit.

As the numbers show, both of these teams are comfortable playing in low-event matches but for Valladolid that style is a necessity as Pucela create the fewest scoring chances per match in La Liga.

A 90-minute game of soccer is a small enough sample size that anything can happen and Valladolid could pull this upset, but I think this matchup suits Sevilla too well to look anywhere else on Friday afternoon.

Valladolid’s defense has been steady enough to (barring a disastrous finish to the season) keep Pucela safe from relegation, but their expected goals numbers are much worse than their actual goals allowed. Valladolid have allowed the eighth-fewest goals in La Liga this season but they’ve conceded the fifth-most expected goals. Regression is coming for Pucela’s defense.

It should be noted that Valladolid have been in decent form since coming back from the break with a win, two draws and an impressive 1-0 loss to Atletico Madrid. Those results look legitimate, too, as Valladolid has only surrendered 3.63 xG across their last four matches.

Brentford v West Brom | Friday 26th June 2020,


Albeit a few months later than initially scheduled, we’re very much entering the home straight in the Championship, and both Brentford and West Brom definitely have something to play for. Thomas Frank’s side are eight points behind the top two, and that is where WBA are currently positioned, so three points would go a long way towards a Premier League return.

This will be the second round of games since the resumption and both outfits endured contrasting emotions first time up in respective local derbies. The Bees pounced late, and twice, to win away from home versus Fulham in a huge top of the table encounter, whilst Slaven Bilic’s team couldn’t find the breakthrough and had to settle for a home draw with Birmingham City.

It is still very much advantage West Brom and Leeds at this time, with both enjoying a relatively comfortable lead in the top two positions. West Brom however know that losing on Friday night would see the margin reduce, and even more so should Fulham prevail when they take on Leeds at the weekend.

In reality, Brentford need to put a run of wins together to gate-crash the automatic promotion party, but they’re capable.

The first thing I wanted to see when decided upon likely betting angles for this game is how both teams have done across the campaign versus other clubs towards the summit. Brentford obviously beat another promotion rival in the form of Fulham last time out, and that completed the double over the Cottagers. However, those two wins remains Brentford’s only wins versus the current top six, but they did draw away at West Brom.

As for West Brom, it is clearly noticeable that they’ve had a few issues, if you could put it that way, against certain clubs in the upper echelons on the English second-tier. Versus Leeds, they draw at home and lost away. An away draw at Fulham and home draw with Brentford isn’t a disaster, and they also drew at home to Nottingham Forest, but did edge the away clash on the opening day.

Albion have also been to Cardiff and lost, so for all their high standards it is clear to see they do have a little bit of trouble against the better sides. They’ve dropped points in 11 league matches this season, and six came against teams in the top seven.

A tactical tussle
I can only see quite a tactical game playing out here, and for all that this is a match between the top two highest scoring teams in the league, it also puts together two of the top three defensive records, with only Leeds managing to concede fewer goals.

It has been well-documented that having Pontus Jansson back in the Brentford back line statistically makes them much, much stronger than without him, so that too has to be factored into proceedings.

Something else which has to be considered is the respect aspect, as undoubtedly both teams know the strengths of the opposition. Therefore, it is probably unwise to expect anything too gung-ho in the early proceedings.

Brentford and West Brom tend to end matches strongly, highlighted by the fact they’ve scored 31 goals combined after 75 minutes. Brentford are more likely to really push to win the longer this game goes on, much like against Fulham where they netted twice very late on.

A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world for West Brom, and I’d go as far as saying it would be a very good result for them. Bilic knows how to set up his team on the road to be hard to beat having lost only two away league contests all season. They’ve earned clean sheets in three of their last four away.

Both Brentford and West Brom are very strong first-half performers, but Brentford have conceded only five first half home goals, and WBA seven first half away goals across the campaign. Rather than this being an epic end-to-end thriller, I’m leaning more towards a tactical affair, at least early on.

The betting angles
I’m happy to push forward a 0-0 Half Time Draw recommendation at 9/5 (Betfair). Only five goals have been produced across the last three head-to-head meetings over the last few seasons in Championship fixtures, so that respect element that I mentioned before clearly plays a hand in this fixture, and especially at this stage of the season when so much is on the line.

Brentford have seen 8/8 Championship games against top-six teams feature Under 2.5 Goals.

Meanwhile, West Brom have also seen Under 2.5 Goals in 6/8 against the top-six.

Juventus return home on Friday to play host to relegation-threatened Lecce.

Juve are four points clear of Lazio at the top of the table and are in a good position to extend that lead after Le Aquile blew a two-goal lead against Atalanta on Wednesday.

Time is running out on Lecce, who looked terrible in a 4-1 loss to AC Milan on Monday. I Giallorossi are in the thick of a relegation battle and any result at Juventus would be a welcome boost to their survival hopes.

Juventus
Juventus were able to bounce back from a poor performance in the Coppa Italia Final with a 2-0 win against an underrated Bologna side on Monday.

Home-field advantage is certainly different without a crowd but Juve’s record at the Allianz Stadium is worth noting. The Old Lady have not lost in its last 34 matches at the Allianz and they are only allowing 0.73 expected goals against per game across 13 matches this season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Juventus have been lining up in a 4-3-3 lately and that’s the formation that best suits Cristiano Ronaldo. The 4-3-3 provides plenty of options going forward and it allows teams to combine two factors, a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

Juventus and Ronaldo have been very successful playing out of this formation, as shown by their +10.18 xG differential and Ronaldo’s 0.82 xG per 90 minutes.

Juve shouldn’t have any issue with Lecce’s porous defense on Friday.

Lecce
It’s hard to understate how bad I Giallorossi have been defensively this season.

Lecce concede more expected goals per match (2.54) than any team across Europe’s major leagues and that number only gets worse (2.60) on the road. Even more concerning is the fact that they allow 3.28 xG when they’re playing on the road against teams in the top half of the table.

Despite their terrible defensive record, Lecce isn’t horrible offensively, scoring 1.25 xG per game. It’s no secret that most of their matches are high scoring affairs, with 56% of their matches going over 3.5 goals.

It’s hard to imagine how this team will keep Juventus and Ronaldo in check on Friday afternoon.

Previous Meeting
Lecce scored a surprise draw with Juventus, 1-1, back in October but Juventus were absolutely dominant in that match, outshooting Lecce 25-10 and holding 70.6% of the possession.

The expected goals report showed the match should have ended 4-1 to Juve.

Analysis
Juventus are gigantic favorites in what is one of the most lopsided matchups since soccer returned.

Leeds vs Fulham | Saturday 27th June 2020, 15:00 | Sky Sports
The Championship returned last week and the teams at the top failed to make a splash. Fulham went down 2-0 in a London derby against Brentford, while Leeds failed to capitalise on West Brom’s draw, as the Yorkshire club lost 2-0 at Cardiff.

Marcelo Bielsa’s men have an opportunity to put things right back at Elland Road. But you’ve got to feel that playing here behind closed doors will have a slight impact on Leeds without their loyal and vocal support.

These behind closed doors games only have a small sample size in the second-tier, but nine of last weekend’s game saw Under 2.5 Goals. And, interestingly, the goals were fairly well split – 12 in the first halves and 14 after the break.

Focussing back on these two sides, who sit second and third, Leeds home games average 2.17 goals per game, while Fulham away games average 2.06. There’s plenty at stake, which means a tight game, which might come down to one mistake or one moment of quality.

Leeds’ struggles
Those two words might sound strange considering the Whites sit in second place and are in one of the pole positions for an automatic promotion spot. But defeat here would see their advantage halve to three points.

What do I mean by Leeds’ struggles? Bielsa’s side is good to watch and can brush aside teams at will on their day. I saw that for myself when they beat Stoke 3-0 in August, while more recently they swept aside a sorry Hull side 4-0 in front of the Sky cameras.

Yet their record against the sides that currently make up the top six isn’t as strong as many would imagine – W2-D5-L2. Going even further into that, eight of nine have been Under 2.5 with all five draws finishing 1-1.

They beat the sides they should win against, but seem to lack that killer instinct against those around them. That’s partly down to a high volume of missed chances. Those two defeats came against Forest, and the reverse of this at Craven Cottage, when they struggled to keep Aleksandar Mitrović quiet.

The Serb is leading the way in the goalscoring charts and will be a nuisance to this Leeds backline, which boasts the best defensive record in the league, so it’s an intriguing match-up in that respect.

Two possession teams
These two sides like to get the ball down and play. The hosts average 60% possession – the most in the Championship – while Fulham ranks second with 59%.

Although dominating most of the stats in the Welsh capital, Leeds failed to win the key one. Mistakes proved costly with a rare Kalvin Phillips error costing them the opener.

But they may be boosted by the return of Pablo Hernandez. The metronomic midfielder is the magician for Leeds. He can unlock most defences in this league and without him; they do sometimes lack the necessary spark.

With how these two set-up, there will be a battle for the ball. When in possession, both sides will look to create pockets of space for their key creative forces to provide for Patrick Bamford and Mitrović respectively.

And given this, the defensive shape will be important. Leeds are well drilled and do reduce their opponents to a limited number of chances – just 9.1 shots per game. That could mean Fulham are forced to try their hand from range.

The betting angles
After just one match back, it’s hard to weigh up too much in the Championship. In his press conference, Scott Parker called his Fulham team news “a bit of a mixed bag”, which won’t fill many with confidence.

Before lockdown, the Cottagers were unbeaten in seven on the road (W2-D5-L0) with three consecutive away games ending 1-1. On their travels, five games have ended in that scoreline overall and that’s probably not good enough for them here, although I’m sure Leeds would take it to maintain the gap.

Going back to Leeds, they’ve drawn just eight of their 38 league games. But, five of those have been against sides in the top six, so given that trend, the draw at 29/10 looks worth taking.

I’m not huge on head-to-head data, but five of the last seven between these two have ended all square. While the last three here at Elland Road have also ended level. That fits in with the close nature of the league positions and how this should shape up.

Germany
Borussia Dortmund
-132

England
Wolverhampton Wanderers
-139

glta

Spain


CA Osasuna
+143

Draw
+194
CD Leganes vs CA Osasuna

glta

Wolves enter Saturday’s road matchup with Aston Villa tied with Manchester United on 49 points for fifth place in the Premier League.

In a normal Premier League season, a race for fifth wouldn’t be as high profile as it is this year due to Manchester City’s potential ban from next year’s Champions League. It’s left Manchester United and Wolves competing for the chance at the final CL spot.

At the other end of the table, Villa are fighting to remain in the Premier League next season. Currently in 19th, Villa are below Bournemouth and West Ham on goal difference at -23.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Wolves have now kept clean sheets in four of their last five, winning four and drawing one of those matches. Since the return from the layoff, Wolves have allowed 0.4 xG in two matches, bringing their season-long total to 28.3 xGA for the year, which is now best in the Premier League.

Wolves aren’t a possession team, but they’re as solid defensively as anyone in the PL, and have a team built to hit teams on the counter and send crosses into the box to target man Raul Jimenez. Crosses have resulted in Wolves’ last three goals in 2-0 and 1-0 successive wins since the Premier League restart.

While there were defensive issues when the league season began back in August, those are largely gone now, and it’s helped Wolves turn draws into wins. Only Liverpool have lost fewer games than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side (6) this year.

Perhaps the most jarring statistic when looking at this Wolves side is their minute-by-minute splits. No team in the PL has larger first to second half splits than Wolverhampton, who have been outscored 24-12 in first halves this season, and outscored opponents 32-10 in the second half. When they have taken one-goal leads this season, they have conceded just one goal.

On the other side, Villa have leaked goals for this entire season. By expected goals, the Claret and Blue are the league’s worst team, at -25 xGD. They’ve conceded 59 goals on 59.6 xGA, both highest in the PL, including nine goals off corners and 40 from open play.

While forward Jack Grealish has been their sole chance creator and finisher for most of the season and has garnered attention from the biggest English clubs, Villa doesn’t have much else going forward. Grealish and Wesley are the only players with five or more goals.

Villa’s performance against Chelsea show the Claret and Blue’s ability to hit opposition on the break, but part of the reason Wolves have the fourth fewest goals conceded is because they themselves don’t like to be on the ball and break down opponents much, making it difficult for teams to hit them on the counter.

Recent Form
Two draws and a defeat so far for Villa has done precious little to ease their nerves surrounding relegation. Fortunately for Dean Smith’s men, fellow candidates for the drop West Ham and Bournemouth have been equally as unimpressive, meaning all three of those sides are tied on 27 points, and goal difference is all that separates the Villans from safety.

Wolves To Beat Villa
Wolves are going about their business somewhat under the radar, and are this season’s dark horses for a Champions League spot as they sit just two points behind Chelsea in fourth, though the Blues do still have a game in hand against Man City.

Wolves have won four of their last five matches and are now unbeaten in seven. In fact, of their six defeats so far this season, four have come against the ‘Big Six’, and with the kind of run Villa are on, we can’t see the hosts claiming all three points in this one.

The relegation scrappers have now lost five of seven winless matches and have netted just twice across their last five. In theory, the lack of fans should give a bit more of a boost to the away side than normal, which is why we’re surprised to see the visitors at such a long price.

Up against the current bottom five in the table, with 15th placed Brighton looking to lug themselves away from that pack, Wolves are W8-L1 this season and they get our full backing for the three points again.

Wolves To Win To Nil
On the goals front, Nuno Espirito-Santo’s men have been impeccable at the back, keeping an exceptional six clean sheets from their last seven matches and Villa haven’t exactly shown the kind of guile in front of goal to suggest that the visitors won’t keep another here.

Only Norwich have netted fewer than them across their last five outings, with their two goals in this period coming from shoddy defending at set pieces, something Wolves haven’t been susceptible of lately, and the win to nil looks to have huge appeal at the prices.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Paderborn | Saturday 27th June 2020, 9:30

Paderborn are already relegated and with Eintracht Frankfurt safe from relegation but with no hope of a European place in mid-table, this clash at the Commerzbank-Arena is a dead rubber.

Despite looking relegation certainties for much of the season, the visitors actually sit second behind the mighty Bayern Munich in average corners won per-away game, having won 87 from their 16 road trips at 5.44 per-game. In those away games Steffen Baumgart’s side have claimed four or more flag kicks in 12 – a very impressive 75% – including four of their last five, winning 5, 6, 8 and 9 in those games.

NORWICH v MAN UTD

United have picked up where they left off and are now unbeaten in 13. They’ve kept 10 clean sheets, winning 9

It is the final matchday of the Bundesliga and it has been an entertaining season. A league which has created a blueprint for all other nations to continue with the sport we love due to its organisation and innovative thinking.

With Bayern Munich's highs and lows, doors were opened but never entered by the chasing pack behind them. However, ultimately, the Bavarians under Hansi Flick were just far too strong.

Champions League spots are still there to be won, however. Dortmund have second spot boxed off, while RB Leipzig are practically safe unless there is a 17-goal swing on the final day. This means that Leverkusen who sit fifth on 60 points and Monchengladbach who sit in fourth on 62 points will battle it out for the final Champions League berth.

With Gladbach having a nine-goal advantage, it looks like Leverkusen fans will need to become Hertha Berlin fans on the final day.

Werder Bremen and Fortuna Dusseldorf find themselves in a desperate position attempting to escape the automatic relegation spots. The fight for a second chance would be like winning the lottery for both clubs, who both face tricky teams.

Dusseldorf travel to Union Berlin whilst Werder Bremen host a relieved Koln, who have managed to scrape together enough points post COVID-19 break to allow themselves to not have a relegation-care in the world.

Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Saturday 27th June 2020, 9:30

One of the most surprising statistics since the restart has been that Leipzig have failed to win at home. Luckily for them, Leverkusen and Gladbach have also lacked consistency and they are playing their last match of the season away. A trip to Augsburg is on the cards and RB will be looking to end their season on a high.

While Leipzig have been poor on home turf, on their travels the visitors have been flawless. They have picked up maximum points and have scored 11 goals in their last three away matches. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have lost only four matches this season and will be reasonably happy with how their 2019/20 season has panned out.

With the Bundesliga proving that home advantage has been non-existent, both the two sides on display are perhaps the biggest displays of this new post-pandemic trend. With all three of their matches being won by two or more goals, Leipzig's pace on the break has never been put to greater use.

Augsburg have failed to win any of their last six matches at home and do not look like a team who will hurt the third-best team in the country. With absolutely nothing to play for, the hosts may have signed off for the season, particularly with no pressure from an expectant home fan base.

Timo Werner is leaving for Chelsea in the summer and his last game in a Leipzig shirt will no doubt be emotional for the striker. Twenty-six goals in a 34-match season is superb and should not be overlooked. It would be a surprise if the flying German did not add to his already impressive tally in a comfortable away win.

Union Berlin vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | Saturday 27th June 2020, 9:30

Dusseldorf's recent chance has been a lifeline for the club who were not expected to do much this season. With only two losses in their last 11 matches, Fortuna head into their match knowing that a win would offer them a second bite of the cherry in a relegation play-off.

The two Dusseldorf losses came against Dortmund and Bayern, which shows that against teams around them, Uwe Rosler’s troops are an extremely stubborn outfit.

Union Berlin were turned over 4-0 against Hoffenheim last weekend and looked low on motivation. The side from the capital who have had such a good season looked to have checked out for the season, registering only two shots on-target. They are facing a side who have everything to play for, which may not be a successful combination.

Fortuna draw too many matches. They may be difficult to beat but often find it hard to grab all three points. Twelve of their 33 games have ended all-square and recently they have drawn nine out their last 14 fixtures.

Union’s performance last week is the main reason why I believe Fortuna will get the required W here. Everything is on the line for the away side and absolutely nothing is for the capital club. Their first season in the Bundesliga has been a huge success and their players may feel they have done their bit. This is certainly not the case for Fortuna

Bilbao/Mallorca DRAW +248
Since return DRAW
19-21 +22.80

Serie A rolls on Saturday with a bottom of the table matchup between Cagliari and Torino. Both come into the game with one win and one loss since the restart.

Cagliari is sitting right in the middle of the table — clear out of the relegation fight, but too far from a Europa league position unless they get on a massive hot streak to end the season.

Torino is starting to climb out of the relegation fight, sitting six points clear. Three points would bolster them out of the relegation fight and secure another season in Serie A.

Cagliari
Isolani Rossoblu was in terrible form before their 1-0 win at SPAL mid week. Before Wednesday’s victory, Cagliari was winless in their last 12 matches. Isolani Rossoblu were unfortunate not to gather at least one win over that streak as they only had an expected goal differential of -3.51. Additionally, most of their home schedule was against difficult opponents over that stretch.

All four of their losses at home during those 12 matches came against teams ahead of them in the table.

Cagliari has found a lot of success at home against teams below them in the table. In six matches, Isolani Rossoblu is 5-0-1 against the bottom of the table. The reason for their success is defense, as they are only allowing 1.27 xG per game, which is much lower than their current 1.65 xG allowed per game.

Torino
Much like Cagliari, Torino was in a terrible run of form before their 1-0 against Udinese on Wednesday. It was their first win in their last eight matches dating all the way back to mid January.

Life on the road has not been too kind to Il Toro this season. Torino is mustering only 1.13xGF per game while allowing 1.82 xG per game, both of which rank in the bottom-five of Serie A. They’ve also been in poor form lately on the road, losing their last four matches as well as the expected goals battle 6.68 to 3.86.

Leeds have only managed W6-D7-L5 against top-half teams this term with 5 of their 11 matches with the top-seven ending 1-1.

Sheffield United vs Arsenal | Sunday 28th June 2020, 8:00

For layers, Arsenal are the gift that keeps on giving. The North London side have won just 10 of their 31 Premier League matches this season and have generally gone off at prices that seem too short to most.

I have been a victim myself this season. I backed Arsenal at around evens away to Sheffield United at evens in October so the fact that I am able to get 13/10 on Mikel Arteta's men against the same opponents on an essentially neutral venue suggests that that was a very poor bet.

Indeed, while results under Arteta have been reasonable, they are fortunate to have as many league points as they do have, with very fortuitous victories against West Ham and Everton included in that most recent sample. The Expected Goals (xG) table actually has the North London side down in 11th so there is little evidence to suggest that they have been unlucky in any way.

That being said, it isn't that surprising that they are able to earn more points than performances merits as in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Eric Aubamayang they have two fine finishers. If you compare the strikers these two clubs have at there disposal it really is chalk and cheese.

For all their endeavours there is little evidence to suggest Billy Sharp and Oli McBurnie are good enough for the Premier League and recent performances overall must really concern Chris Wilder.

Since the resumption of top-flight football, Wilder's side have had just three shots on-target in as many matches and have lost by a three-goal margin in two of those, having not been defeated in such a manner all season prior to that.

As a general view I believe backing Arsenal guarantees a trip to the poor house but for all their faults I do believe they have far better players at their disposal and Sheffield United's recent displays have been pretty unimpressive so I am going to go against my usual advice and back Arsenal to win in 90 minutes.

Leicester vs Chelsea | Sunday 28th June 2020, 11:00
Two teams gunning for top four places face-off at the King Power on Sunday afternoon but this time both are going for an FA Cup trophy. Chelsea were excellent against Manchester City and I thought they deserved to win, more than matching them in all areas. That will give them great belief coming into this.

Frank Lampard has a myriad of options at his disposal and we could see the likes of Billy Gilmour, Emerson and Tammy Abraham return to the starting line up in order to freshen up his side. It’s admirable strength in depth considering the blues were unable to do anything in the transfer market in the last year.

Leicester have underwhelmed since the restart, being lucky to get a couple of draws against bottom half sides Watford and Brighton. The Foxes lost the Expected Goals (xG) battle in both those games and it’s in keeping with their decline in performances since the turn of the year. Jamie Vardy hasn’t really had a sniff and I expect Kelechi Iheanacho to be involved here to give them more of a goal threat.