return of the Premier League & a full slate of matches this week, let's keep rolling folks !
GL

Getafe v Espanyol | 16th June 2020, 1:30

It’s straight back into action for the teams in La Liga as two of the team’s surprise packages – one for the right reasons and one for the wrong – go head to head at Coliseum Alfonso Perez.

Madrid based Getafe have continued to surpass expectations to sit fifth, on course for consecutive finishes in the Europa League spots which considering the size of the club and the city giants they sit in the shadow of is quite something.

Since promotion back to the first division in 2017-18, manager José Bordalás has invested wisely and the club only missed out on qualification for the Champions League on the final day of last season. Bordalás’s 4-4-2 system and the team that takes to the pitch may not be the most glamorous but it is so often effective. Once the team win the ball back, they turn defence into attack very quickly once they win the ball back.

With the likes of Atletico Madrid and Valencia drawing far too many games, Getafe have managed to rotate their squad effectively to negotiate the gruelling league campaign, although the weekend defeat to Granada may show that it could take time for the squad to find a positive momentum again.

Although the recruitment and Bordalás’s coaching have been superb, as well as a defence that have conceded just 27 times in 28 matches, there’s no getting away from the rough nature of the squad that this past weekend reached the 100 cards for the season milestone. That’s by far and away the most of any team in Europe and averages out at 3.57 per La Liga game.

Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich | Tuesday 16th June 2020, 2:30

This could well be the game that
Bayern Munich secure yet another Bundesliga title, they face a relegation threatened Werder Bremen side who have, on the whole, been a shambles this season.

Having said that, Florian Kohfeldt would’ve been delighted with his Werder team's performance at rock-bottom Paderborn as they returned north with a 5-1 win under their belt. It was a deserved win for the Riversiders which was made all the sweeter with relegation rivals Dusseldorf conceding a last-minute winner to Borussia Dortmund.

It puts Bremen level on points with F95 and with them a single goal away on goal difference, it makes the weekend thrashing all the more important.

That being said, few will expect them to get anything from the relentless winning machine that is Bayern Munich. They overcame a few frights from Borussia Monchengladbach to record a 2-1 win and that was without the formidable duo of Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski, both of whom return from suspension for this one.

The Polish striker was replaced by youngster Joshua Zirkzee who managed to get on the scoresheet with a little help from Gladbach keeper Yann Sommer, which is building further trust in him from Hansi Flick.

For anyone interested in head-to-head records Bayern have won the last 18 meetings between these two and it’s difficult to see past another, especially when considering Werder’s shocking home form. At the Weserstadion they have lost nine of their last 10 in the league, failing to score in eight of those. It’s therefore a case of having to get creative to get a decent price on an away win.

We’ve got a huge game to kick off Matchday 32 in the Bundesliga as Wolfsburg heads to Borussia Park to take on Borussia Monchengladbach.

Gladbach hung with Bayern Munich over the weekend and were close to ending the Bavarians’ nine-match winning streak. An 86th-minute goal ended those hopes, however.

Wolfsburg were last seen blowing a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw against Freiburg.

Both of these teams have plenty to play for over the rest of the season. Borussia Monchengladbach is ahead of Leverkusen by goal differential for the fourth and final Champions League spot, while Wolfsburg are trying to hold off Hoffenheim and Freiburg for a spot in the Europa League.

Borussia Monchengladbach
Die Fohlen have not been in good form since the Bundesliga returned. With only seven points in six matches they really need to pick up their level if they want to qualify for the Champions League. Most notably, Borussia Monchengladbach needs to improve their defensive play.

Die Fohlen have conceded 1.55 expected goals per game over the last six matches, a slight uptick from their usual 1.41 xGA per game. Gladbach’s struggles in front of their own net have led to wide-open games. In fact, since the Bundesliga lit back up, matches involving Marco Rose’s side have averaged 3.38 total expected goals.

These high scoring matches are nothing new for Gladbach, who average 3.54 total xG per match on the season. That number only increases when Die Fohlen play at home. On average, a whopping 4.04 expected goals are created inside the confines of Borussia Park and 80% of Gladbach’s home matches have soared past 2.5 goals this season.

Wolfsburg boast one of the Bundesliga’s best defenses but I still think Die Fohlen will find a way to turn this game into a goal-fest.

Wolfsburg
Die Wölfe have been in a weird run of form, as all of their success since the restart has come on the road. Wolfsburg have won all three of their matches and boast a +3.42 xG differential away from Volkswagen Arena since the season picked back up.

Wolfsburg grades out as one of the strongest defensive teams in the Bundesliga, allowing just 1.17 xG per match.

That being said, the goals are coming in bunches in Wolfsburg matches. An average of 3.33 total expected goals have been generated in Wolfsburg’s last six games, which is well above their season average of 2.79.

Given the fact they are playing one of the highest-scoring offenses in the Bundesliga, I think we are going to see a lot of goals in this match.

This is a must-win game for both of these teams for different reasons.

On one side of the coin Barcelona is trying to hold off Real Madrid for their fifth La Liga title in six years.

Leganes, on the other hand, are in the relegation zone and are three points from safety. Los Pepineros (which literally translates to “The Cucumber Growers” and is one of soccer’s best nicknames) are desperate for any type of result in this match.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Barcelona
Its been another stellar season for Lionel Messi and company, especially at Camp Nou. Barcelona are almost perfect, with 13 wins, one draw and no losses in their 14 home matches this season.

Barca have outscored their opponents, 45-12, at Camp Nou but they’ve “only” created 34 expected goals, so while they’ve been dominant at home, they’ve also been a bit fortunate.

In fact, Barcelona have outperformed their underlying metrics all season and it’s worth noting the difference between the average actual scoring differential for Barcelona games against the expected goal differential:

Actual Goal Differential per game: +1.29
Expected Goal Differential per game: +0.94
In their first match since the break, Barcelona blitzed 17th-place Mallorca, 4-0. but that scoreline is a bit deceiving.

Mallorca settled into the game nicely after Arturo Vidal put Barcelona ahead inside the first two minutes, but they couldn’t convert on a few decent opportunities in the first half. Predictably, Barca did what Barca does best and put Mallorca away in the second half.

The expected goals report showed the game should have been closer than the 4-0 scoreline.

Leganes
Los Pepineros deserve better this season.

Based on expected points, Leganes should be closer to 33 points rather than 23, but their poor offense has doomed them to a relegation fight. Not only are Leganes tied with Celta Vigo for the fewest goals (22) in La Liga, but their 1.05 expected goals per game is the second-worst mark in the circuit.

Los Pepineros boast an average defensive record this season and only allow 1.32 expected goals per match. Those numbers don’t jump off the page but they are better than most teams near the bottom of the table.

Leganes typically line up in one of three different formations, but no matter how they come out, they play a defense-first style of football. This is why Leganes matches only average 2.37 total expected goals.

Considering their opponent, I think you will see Los Pepineros sit back and try to turn this match into a rock fight.

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United | Wednesday 17th June 2020, 18:00 | Sky Sports
The Premier League returns on Wednesday as Aston Villa welcome Sheffield United to Villa Park. These are two very similar sides in the sense that they gained promotion together last season and are both captained and managed by supporters of the club (Jack Grealish and Dean Smith and Billy Sharp and Chris Wilder).

However, their returns to the top tier of English football have played out quiet differently. Pre-season relegation favourites Sheffield United are amongst the pack chasing European football, whilst the Villans – touted to cruise too safety – flirt with the drop, two points adrift from safety.

Therefore, it is no surprise that to see the Blades are the bookies favourites to win this one

Aston Villa’s style of play
Dean Smith has deployed a few different formations this season. Some tactical switches have been enforced by injury. For example, changing from a back three to a back four in their last Premier League game was a consequence of an injury to Kortney Hause.

However, usually Villa try to straddle the line between being defensively solid and optimising the attacking output of Grealish. This has seen them most commonly opt for a 4-1-4-1 formation with Grealish in left midfield, although in six out of eight of their last league games they’ve played in a 3-4-3, with Grealish operating on the left wing.

Grealish will play a pivotal role if Villa are to survive. He has seven goals this season and six assists, however, equally important is ability to drive Villa up the pitch. For example, he averages 6.82 dribbles per-90 minutes (57% success rate) and 4.43 progressive runs, second to only Adama Traore (5.6).

In defence, Villa try to be as compact as possible in central areas. If operating in a 4-1-4-1 formation, it becomes a 4-3-2-1 out of possession. Their wingers drop behind their striker, with their centre midfielders forming a flat three. This often invites pressure, allows the opposition to have lots of time and space on the ball and leads them conceding a higher than average amounts of crosses.

This is best optimised by the following stats; Villa’s Pressing Per Defensive Action (PPDA) is 12.99 compared to their opponents average of 10.64. In their last game, Leicester attempted 29 crosses versus Villa despite averaging 19.7 crosses this season.

Sheffield United’s style of play
Sheffield United play 5-3-2, an adaptation of a formation first deployed back in League One as Wilder and Alan Knill quickly realised their opposition would often sit far to deep to justify a playing 4-4-2. Instead they opted for a back five in which their left and right-sided centre halves were given license to roam, thus creating the over-lapping centre back role.

This formation allowed Sheff Utd to commit bodies forward consistently, penning the opposition deep in their own half, allowing them to dominate possession and rack up crosses, corners and shots. This set up has steered the Blades from League One to the Premier League in just three seasons.

Questions were asked if Wilder and Knill would be able to remain loyal to this unique brand of free flowing, attacking football – marauding centre backs and all – in their first season back in the Premier League given the quality they’d be up against. However, with just minimal tactical tweaking they have.

In the Championship, their midfield three was set up with a double pivot in a 5-2-1-2. Ollie Norwood and John Fleck would play centrally and Mark Duffy usually in a more attacking role. This season they’ve switched to a single pivot (5-1-2-2) allowing the midfield three to sit deeper with more emphasis on creating overloads out wide; Norwood in defensive midfield with Fleck and John Lundstrum slightly higher. This has allowed Norwood to be much more influential in possession.

On a game-by-game basis, Sheffield United’s tactics can usually be inferred by their choice of strikers. If they opt for the pace of Lys Mousset or Richairo Zivkovic it means they’ll be taking a more direct approach, probably against a team that press and have a high line. They’ll look to turn their opposition and exploit the space in behind. If one of these players start it may suggest that United will have less possession than usual.

Against sides that deploy a lower block (such as Villa) Wilder usually starts Oli McBurnie and Billy Sharp. The pair have started the last five games up top together, this usually means SUFC will be placing even more emphasis on overloading wide areas and get crosses into the box. In McBurnie and Sharp’s last three starts together, SUFC have averaged 40 crosses per-game – in fact, only Man City, Liverpool and Everton have crossed more often this season then United (659).



The only striker who does not impose much baring on the Blades tactical set up is David McGoldrick, due to his versatility. The Irish international is equally as capable at linking up the play as he is been hit as a target man. If it wasn’t for a broken toe, he would have featured a lot more this season and if it wasn’t for Lundstrum’s big toe he’d have had that all elusive first Premier League goal under his belt.

I can say with some confidence that the Blades will be lining up in a 5-3-2 on Wednesday.

Arsenal +1.5 Asian Handicap
Arteta will also be familiar with Guardiola’s methods having worked under his fellow countryman, and with far longer than usual between games, should have had plenty of time to work on his game plan for his former mentor.

It’s not as though City are as strong as they were previously either, as they’re a full 11 points worse off than at this stage last season, with their struggles primarily coming against stronger sides.

Whereas City are a reasonably healthy W12-D2-L1 against the teams below the Gunners in the table, against the top nine they’re just W6-D1-L6, as only two of those victories saw them win by more than the single goal.

Arsenal have endured some torrid times on the road in recent campaigns, though they last tasted defeat away from home at Leicester back in early November, drawing six of seven games since then.

Aside from Chelsea however, the strongest teams they locked horns with were mid-table outfits Everton, Palace and Burnley. We wouldn’t be confident enough to back the visitors to take any points, but they should muster enough resilience to cover the +1.5 Asian handicap.

The one reservation we have is that under the new rules allowing for five substitutes to be used, City will clearly benefit from the stronger bench and so it may be worth cashing out early.

However, the Gunners will hope that home surroundings don’t provide as beneficiary as before, with home sides in the Bundesliga winning less games, albeit with a small sample to go on.

Borussia Dortmund are a frustrating team to handicap. There’s no denying they are one of the best teams in the Bundesliga and BVB’s attacking talent is up there with some of the best teams in the world, but their reputation as a high-flying offense is a bit misleading.

Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga with 82 goals but their expected goals tally is 59.7 and that tells you that their reputation is a bit inflated. In fact, the numbers tell you that BVB’s best asset is actually a defense that concedes the third-fewest xG per match in the Bundesliga.

Dortmund are a defensive powerhouse dressed in an offensive dynamo’s clothing.

There’s a lot to unpack from this match from a game theory perspective. Mainz have been pulled into a relegation scrap thanks to a terrible run of form and now find themselves just three points ahead of both Dusseldorf and Werder Bremen coming into Wednesday.

With a match against Bremen this weekend looming, Mainz can take a couple of approaches to this match against Dortmund. They can go for it and try to pull off the upset or they can sit back and hope to grind out a draw or a lucky win.

Either way, should Mainz find themselves behind by a couple of goals I’d expect Achim Beierlorzer to be pretty quick to pull the chord and use his five subs to keep his best players fresh for their upcoming relegation six-pointer with Werder Bremen.

I’d expect that to the be the case as the odds show that Dortmund wins this match 75% of the time:

Dortmund: 75.3%
Draw: 15.7%
Mainz: 9%
Even though Dortmund is due for some offensive regression and BVB only created 0.68 expected goals and needed a last-gasp goal from Erling Haaland to beat Dusseldorf on Saturday, I can’t trust Mainz’s defense to hold off BVB for a full 90 minutes as Die Nullfunfer have conceded the third-most goals and fourth-most expected goals in the Bundesliga this season.

That doesn’t bode well against a team like Dortmund who have shown the ability to consistently put away the opportunities they create over the course of 90 minutes

As much time as I’ve spent on Dortmund’s offense, their defense holds the key to this handicap as I have a tough time imagining a path to success for Mainz’s offense. Dortmund has allowed just one non-penalty goal in their six matches since the Bundesliga returned and that marker came in a 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich.

hope everyones doing well. FYI , i've kept my a$$ close to home other than Kroger & Lowes.

BOL Y'all


Draw
+233
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa

Manchester City
-1.5-123

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Wednesday 17th June 2020, 1:00 | La Liga TV

We’re about to see a myriad of matches as leagues from around the world return from lockdown.

On Wednesday afternoon Osasuna go head-to-head with Atletico Madrid; both sides saw 1-1 draw in their returns with Osasuna surprising many by playing extremely well against Champions League-chasing Real Sociedad.

Meanwhile, Atletico couldn’t capitalise on Getafe’s loss to Granada and remain in sixth.

Key Stats
Osasuna:

Commit on average 15 fouls per game when playing at home.
Receive on average 10.6 fouls per game when playing at home (the lowest in the league).
When playing at home against the top half of the table they have received 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions and in 4/4 games at home to teams in the top 6.
In the games at home against the top 6 they have seen 2+ cards in the second half 3/4 times.
When playing at home against the top 6 the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/4 occasions.
Their XG for at home is 25.22 but they have only scored 20.
Their XG against at home is 16.96 but they have conceded 20.
In their home games against the top 6 they have scored in 4/4 but they have also conceded at least 1 goal in 4/4 and 2+ in 3/4.
Have the fifth worst disciplinary record in La Liga overall and the fourth worst at home.
Atletico Madrid:

Commit on average 14.2 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 13.4 fouls per game when playing away.
When playing away to teams in the bottom half they have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 games and 3+ in 6/7.
When playing away to teams in the bottom half the opposition has seen 2+ in 6/7 and 3+ in 6/7.
Their XG for away from home is 18.33 but they have only scored 12.
Their XG against away from home is 13.78 and they have conceded 13.
Have the most draws away from home this season and have not won away since December.
Have only scored 2+ goals away from home in 3/13 games this season.
Analysis
It’s exceptionally tight near the top of the table as just nine points separate third from ninth. At the time of writing, Atletico currently lie in the Europa League qualifying spot and can jump into fourth if results go their way. To do so they will need to improve on their away record; no team has seen more draws (eight) on their travels in the league this season than El Atleti.

Osasuna are also just three points off of a fight for a place in the top half and are much stronger at home. Despite only losing four games at home this season, all of them came against opponents from the top half.

It looks as though Ricardo De Burgos is going to be the referee in this fixture and he has handed out an average of 5.25 yellow cards per-game. The most recent game he has been in charge of also saw Osasuna playing at home against Espanyol in what saw the home side receive three yellows in a feisty affair.

Sheffield United +128

The Premier League is back on Wednesday, kicking off an unprecedented string of action with EPL matches on 14 of the next 16 days.

Aston Villa will restart the season in 19th place and two points below the safety line. Villa is far from a sure thing to be relegated as only four points separate 15th-place Brighton from Villa.

Sheffield United were one of the biggest surprises in the Premier League before the world came to a halt as the newly-promoted Blades are in seventh place and just two points behind Manchester United in fifth place. If Sheffield United could catch Man U they would be guaranteed a spot in the 2020-21 Europa League, so a win over a bottom-feeder like Aston Villa feels like a necessity.

Aston Villa
Aston Villa have been terrible in their return to the Premier League. Currently sitting in 19th place, the Villans have shown no real signs of life in 2019-20 despite spending the most money ($184 million) of any Premier League side on transfers this past summer.

Most of that money was spent on defensive players — eight of them, to be exact — and it hasn’t translated into any sort of success as the Villans rate out as the second-worst team in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals (xG), with a -26.66 xG differential. And wouldn’t you know, defense has been the main issue for free-spending Aston Villa.

The Villans have allowed the most goals against this season and they concede the most expected goals (2.20) per match in the Premier League. Prior to the pause Aston Villa lost four games in a row and allowed a total of 12.24 xG in that span.

A strong attack can sometimes cover up for a bad defense but unfortunately for Villa, their offense is lacking, too. Dean Smith’s side generate 1.24 expected goals per match, which ranks 16th in the Premier League.

Sheffield United
It’s been a dream season for the Blades in their first season in the Premier League. After a 12-year absence from the top flight, Sheffield United find themselves in the top half of the table with European football in their sights.

The Blades have been a little worse than their actual +5 goal differential, with a -0.23 xG differential, but to call this season anything other than a massive success would be unfair to the Blades, who operate on one of the league’s smallest budgets.

Sheffield United took 14 of a possible 21 points with a 1.38 xG differential over their last seven matches.

The Premier League returns on Wednesday afternoon with a matchup featuring two of the league’s “big six”, but Arsenal have been far from one of the six best teams in the PL this year.

The Gunners will travel to Manchester on Wednesday to play behind closed doors, kicking off a 10-game sprint to the finish currently scheduled for the end of July.

When I previewed this game back in March, my main reason for liking Manchester City to lay the -1.5 goals and cover that spread was their ability to bounce back off a defeat. The Citizens had just lost 2-0 to Manchester United and have shown impressive form in the ensuing match off a loss under Guardiola.

For this handicap, though, I’m looking at how City have done to start seasons, since the layoff before Wednesday’s match is similar in length to an offseason at this point.

City have won each of their four season openers under Pep Guardiola, including a 2-0 win over Arsenal in 2018-19 and a 5-0 thrashing of West Ham to begin the 2019-20 campaign.

On the other side, Arsenal have had a miserable season domestically. Despite three-straight wins headed into the break, the Gunners sit ninth on points and 12th on expected goal difference per 90 minutes.

Their leaky defense has improved since Mikel Arteta, the former No. 2 to Guardiola, took over for sacked manager Unai Emery, but Arsenal have struggled to turn draws into wins. The Gunners have 13 draws, tied with Wolves for most in the English top flight.

The break also enables Manchester City to get healthy, specifically defender Aymeric Laporte and winger Leroy Sané. Sané was expected to miss the remainder of the year, and Laporte had been on and off the pitch as he tried to get fit.

The Citizens have been significantly better defensively when Laporte is in the starting XI than not. In seven games with Laporte, they have conceded three goals (0.43 per game), compared to 24 goals allowed in the 21 without him (1.14 per game).

Perhaps where I am most concerned with Arsenal in this matchup is tactically, though. Arsenal’s inability to break any type of effective press through the midfield has been a consistent issue for them all season, and effective pressing through the midfield is where Manchester City is at its best.

It’s part of the reason why City have won six consecutive matches against Arsenal in the last three years, outsourcing them 17-2 in those games.

Any City midfield group of Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, Fernandinho or David Silva is miles better than Arsenal’s group of Xhaka, Matteo Guendouzi, Mesut Ozil or Dani Ceballos.

Arsenal ranks 15th in successful dribble rate (when a player attempts to beat an opponent while maintaining possession) as a team and just 11th in attacking third touches, while City are far and away the top team in attacking third touches and rank second in successful dribble percentage.

As the games pile up and teams are forced to rotate players and go deeper into benches, there is perhaps no team better equipped to handle that than the depth of Manchester City.

Real Madrid vs Valencia | Thursday 18th June 2020, 4:00 | La Liga TV

Barcelona put the pressure back on Real Madrid with a 2-0 win on Tuesday night against Leganes. Los Blancos need a victory on Thursday night if they’re to close the gap to two points again.

Real welcome an inconsistent Valencia side to the Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium, home of Madrid’s Castillo side as the Bernabeu is undergoing structural developments this summer. Madrid kicked back off with a 3-1 win against Eibar whilst Valencia were held to a draw with local rivals Levante on Friday night.

Los Che still harbour hopes of a top-six finish but they’ll have to improve their performances you’d think, if they are to do so. Valencia were so long known for their stout defence and largely pragmatic approach under former manager Marcelino. Since he has left and Albert Cellades took the reigns, the east coast club have been totally the opposite, often found wanting at the back but posing a threat in attacking areas.

Valencia are conceding an average of 1.70 goals per-game and allowing the second-most shots in the entire league. That’s been something that’s put me off them all season and I’ve been happy to get against them more often than not. What’s more there’s defensive worries from an injury perspective with Jose Gaya and Gabriel both doubts whilst Ezequiel Garay and Cristiano Piccini are both ruled out.

Zinedine Zidane has plenty of options available to him which could be key with the swift fixture turnover from now till the end of the season. Real can’t afford to slip up and I don’t think they will here. They’re short enough to take the three points so I’ll get a bit creative and dip into the BetBuilder market on Bet365.

Given Valencia’s propensity to concede good chances and lots of shots I’ll kick things off with the hosts notching Over 1 goal and having Over 3 corners. I’ll also throw in both sides to have Under 5 Cards. These two both rank as top four for good discipline, both average around two cards per-game so I can’t see a crazy game. It’s not Granada versus Getafe, let’s put it that way!

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Wednesday 17th June 2020

We’re about to see a myriad of matches as leagues from around the world return from lockdown.

On Wednesday night Osasuna go head-to-head with Atletico Madrid; both sides saw 1-1 draw in their returns with Osasuna surprising many by playing extremely well against Champions League-chasing Real Sociedad.

Meanwhile, Atletico couldn’t capitalise on Getafe’s loss to Granada and remain in sixth.

Key Stats
Osasuna:

Commit on average 15 fouls per game when playing at home.
Receive on average 10.6 fouls per game when playing at home (the lowest in the league).
When playing at home against the top half of the table they have received 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions and in 4/4 games at home to teams in the top 6.
In the games at home against the top 6 they have seen 2+ cards in the second half 3/4 times.
When playing at home against the top 6 the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/4 occasions.
Their XG for at home is 25.22 but they have only scored 20.
Their XG against at home is 16.96 but they have conceded 20.
In their home games against the top 6 they have scored in 4/4 but they have also conceded at least 1 goal in 4/4 and 2+ in 3/4.
Have the fifth worst disciplinary record in La Liga overall and the fourth worst at home.
Atletico Madrid:

Commit on average 14.2 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 13.4 fouls per game when playing away.
When playing away to teams in the bottom half they have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 games and 3+ in 6/7.
When playing away to teams in the bottom half the opposition has seen 2+ in 6/7 and 3+ in 6/7.
Their XG for away from home is 18.33 but they have only scored 12.
Their XG against away from home is 13.78 and they have conceded 13.
Have the most draws away from home this season and have not won away since December.
Have only scored 2+ goals away from home in 3/13 games this season.
Analysis
It’s exceptionally tight near the top of the table as just nine points separate third from ninth. At the time of writing, Atletico currently lie in the Europa League qualifying spot and can jump into fourth if results go their way. To do so they will need to improve on their away record; no team has seen more draws (eight) on their travels in the league this season than El Atleti.

Alaves are sitting comfortably seven points above the relegation zone, so a win would secure them another season in La Liga.

Alaves
Babazorros El Glorioso came back from the break sluggish, losing 2-0 to last place Espanyol. The result wasn’t shocking as they are the 17th ranked team on the road when it comes to expected goals.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Most of their success this season has come at Mendizorroza Stadium. With 23 points in 14 matches, Babazorros El Glorioso boast a +4.32 goal differential at home.

Defense has been their calling card so far this year, as Alaves only allow 0.95 expected goals per game at home, which ranks sixth in La Liga. Before the world came to halt, Alaves were in good form at home, earning seven of a possible 12 points, with a +2.01 goal differential. Alaves will be a tough outfit for Real Socieded to break down Thursday.

Real Sociedad
It has been a dream season for Real Sociedad. It’s the highest they’ve been in the table since in seven years. However, expected points shows they should be lower in the table, as they rank seventh in expected goal differential of +9.98.

In their first game back from the break, Real Sociedad were disappointing, drawing with Osasuna at home. The expected goals report showed that they struggled to create decent scoring chances as well.

Real Sociedad games have been high scoring this season for La Liga standards, with 2.69 expected goals scored per game. Additionally, their last eight matches have seen an average of 2.96 expected goals per game. It’s easy to see why 68% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Previous Meeting
Real Sociedad blitzed Alaves 3-0 in the reverse fixture at the Anoeta Stadium in September. It was dominate performance for Real Sociedad as they created 4.10 expected goals based on the expected goals report.