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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 5
Time: 2:19 p.m. ET
Race 5 is my least favorite of the day, which means that I’ll head out to the backyard at Belmont, light up my cigar, grab some snacks from a food truck, and take one long, last look over my Middle Pick 5 and Middle Pick 4 wagers; beginning in Race 6.
To close out early multi-race tickets, I would look to spread in this seven-furlong maiden race, primarily using the No 1 Mutakaamil (4-1) for Chad Brown (27% win rate in maiden special weights); No. 8 Happy Saver (3-1) for Todd Pletcher (22% win rate), and No. 7 Rare Stripe (2-1) for Jack Sisterson (18%) after a bullet workout (1st of 97 horses) on June 13.
But I would be remiss to leave off the No. 5 The Angry Man (8-1) and No. 6 Shadow Boat (8-1), for relatively high-percentage maiden trainers, and I will not let the No. 2 O’Trouble (7-2) beat me everywhere if I’m already spreading somewhere.
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06-20-20 05:18 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 6 (Wonder Again Stakes – G3)
Time: 3:01 p.m. ET
We now enter the central part of Saturday’s card, as Race 6 begins the Mandatory payout $0.50 Pick 5, which concludes with the Belmont Stakes in Race 10.
The No. 2 Sweet Melania (7-5), a daughter of American Pharoah, is a deserving favorite and could beat this field easily from a tactical spot behind what looks like a minimal pace. While you certainly have to include her, I’ll use one alternative.
The No. 5 Selflessly (5-2) for Chad Brown would be the other obvious choice – in her first start back after winning a Grade-2 race as a maiden last September. To reiterate, Brown wins at a 29% rate when he brings horses back after a long layoff – the same rate as Pletcher – but he also has a 25% win rate in graded stakes races, compared to 9% (15-for-167) for Pletcher.
The No. 1 Speaktomeofsummer (8-1), No. 3 Highland Glory (2-1) could come running late, but I’m not sure if they will get the right setup. And the No. 4 Antoinette (6-1) is moving from dirt to turf, a move which has only worked 10% of the time (six for 63) for Bill Mott’s barn.
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06-20-20 05:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 7
Time: 3:39 p.m. ET
This seven-furlong allowance race on the turf is my second least-favorite race on the card, but since it is part of the primary multi-race sequences, we should look to spread, move on, and narrow down our tickets in the stakes races.
I’m going to consider using the following horses: the No. 3 Single Verse (8-1), No. 4 Strongerthanuknow (5-1), No. 5 Winfred J (6-1), No. 6 Noble Jewel (8-1), No. 8 My Sassy Sarah (5-2), No. 10 Light in the Sky (12-1), No. 11 Canaraise Angel (12-1), and No. 12 Speightstown Gal (8-1).
The 4, 5, 6, 8, and 12 horses would be my “A” selections if I had to narrow this leg down to five runners, with the 3, 10 and 11 as “B” options, but I would have a difficult time cutting beyond that group.
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06-20-20 05:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 8 (Acorn Stakes – G1)
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
Race 8 begins the late Pick 5 sequence, which includes the two races following the Belmont Stakes.
The No. 1 Gamine (1-1) figures to be one of the more heavily bet favorites of the day, as the current favorite for the 2020 Kentucky Oaks, but Bob Baffert’s barn has struggled with shipping horses to Belmont this meet, and she was nearly run down in the stretch; winning by just a neck at Oaklawn Park in her last start.
The No. 4 Casual (3-1), the only other horse in the field who has run a 90 Beyer speed figure, is my top selection. She has to extend out an extra furlong to one mile, while Gamine is cutting back from a mile and 1/16, which makes this an exciting match race.
However, the No. 2 Lucrezia (9-2) is another one to consider, after running a bullet work (1st of 40 runners) on June 13, and the No. 7 Perfect Alibi (5-1) should improve in her three-year-old season after winning multiple graded stakes as a two-year-old. Still, she needs to take a significant step up in speed figures (career-best 74) in her first start of the year.
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06-20-20 05:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 10:The Belmont Stakes
Time: 5:42 p.m. ET
This Belmont Stakes is undoubtedly different than all the ones that have come before it – going off as the first race of the Triple Crown, at a shorter distance and with a one-turn configuration.
Ultimately, I’m not entirely trying against No. 8 Tiz The Law (6-5), a potential superstar. Still, I wasn’t overly impressed by his Florida Derby either, and think that he is much more vulnerable than a likely odds on favorite.
I’m certainly rooting for the New York-bred – who is is looking to become the first local horse to win the Belmont Stakes since Forrester did it back in 1882, but I think the most likely upset candidates are the No. 1 Tap It To win (6-1) who ran a 97 Beyer speed at Belmont 16 days ago, and could get loose on the lead – and the No. 9 Dr. Post (5-1) who has a 96-speed figure from his maiden score at Gulfstream Park in March, but only followed that up with an 86 in stakes win one month later.
Either or both of the late-running No. 2 Sole Volante (9-2) and the No. 10 Pneumatic (8-1), who has a stablemate rabbit in the No. 7 Jungle Runner (50-1) also entered in this field, could undoubtedly hit the board. Still, I don’t see enough pace in the race to allow either one to blow past the entire field.
I do plan to use Pneumatic and the No. 4 Modernist (15-1) in the second spot on my exacta and trifecta tickets, but Tap It To Win – who can use the long backstretch and one-turn configuration like a slingshot – is my lone “B” option on multi-race tickets.
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06-20-20 05:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 11
Time: 6:17 p.m. ET
If you end up playing the late Pick 4 or Late Pick 5 sequence or want to use Tiz The Law as a single to begin a Daily Double or late Pick 3, I can give you some multi-race options to close out those tickets. At the same time, we will wait for the crowds to empty and board the earlier, more crowded, and significantly drunker trains to various destinations around Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey.
I would go up to four deep in Race 11 – a nine-furlong optional claimer on the turf, including the No 2 Breaking the Rules (6-1), No. 3 Largent (5-2), No. 5 Argonne (12-1), and Chad Brown’s No. 9 Digital Age (3-1) – who won me some big money on last year’s Kentucky Derby Day card.
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06-20-20 05:28 PM |
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