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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NHL Lagniappe

The NHL All-Star game doesn't take place until Jan. 25 in St. Louis. But in terms of the actual schedule, many teams just eclipsed the halfway point of the regular season (game 41 of 82). Let's take a look at how the first half turned out for bettors and also home in on some profitable systems for the second half.

Favorites 385-296 (56.5%)

Dogs 296-385 (43.5%)

Despite moneyline favorites winning at a 56.5% clip, bettors would be down -31.76 units due to laying the minus favorite price. Dogs have won 43.5% of games but due to the plus-money payouts have produced 5.05 units.

Home teams 363-313 (53.7%)

Road teams 313-363 (46.3%)

Similarly, home teams have a winning record, but have lost -30.92 units due to mostly favorite prices. In turn, road teams (typically dog prices) are 5.04 units.

Conference dogs 173-241 (41.8%)

Non-conference dogs 123-144 (46.1%)

We see a big discrepancy in the performance of dogs depending on whether it's a conference game or non-conference. Non-conference dogs have performed much better ( 15.97 units) compared to conference dogs (-10.92 units).

Overs 334-326 (50.6%)

Unders 326-334 (49.4%)

Both overs and unders have been a losing bet through the first half of play, but overs (-9.65 units) have been slightly better than unders (-28.98 units).

Old Post 01-11-20 11:18 AM
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msudogs
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Profitable Systems

Two good teams (.500 or more) take the dog: 87-87 (50%), plus 24.03 units
Two bad teams (.499 or less) take the favorite: 73-42 (63.5%), plus 6.47 units

Non-conference Road dogs: 91-102 (47.2%), plus 20.97 units

Short road dogs ( 130 or less) coming off a win: 24-19 (56%), plus 9.25 units

Dogs with line movement in their favor (think 120 to 115): 119-132 (47.4%), plus 10.74 units

Rested team (2-4 days off) off a loss vs tired team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 39-27 (59%), plus 5.11 units

A team on 3 days of rest vs a team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 26-14 (65%), plus 4.79 units

Well-rested road favorites (3-4 days off vs team who missed playoffs previous year): 26-15 (63%), plus 4.74 units

Most profitable teams to bet one

Islanders 27-15, plus 10.93 units
Capitals 30-15, plus 9.1 units
Rangers 21-22, plus 6.51 units
Blues 27-17, plus 6.2 units
Jets 23-21 plus 5.9 units
Avalanche 25-19, plus 5.5 units
Oilers 24-22, plus 4.81 units

Old Post 01-11-20 11:18 AM
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msudogs
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins
Penguins odds: +120
Bruins odds: -140
Over/Under: 6
Time: 7 p.m. ET
You’d think a team that is headlined by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin would be known for its offense, but the Penguins have turned themselves into a defense-first dynamo in 2019-20.

The Penguins own the league’s best goal differential (+36) this season and their defense allows the fewest expected goals (2.02) against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

It’s worth noting that this is a defense that has been without Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang and Justin Schultz for chunks of games. Only one defenseman on Pittsburgh’s roster, Marcus Pettersson, has featured in all 46 games for Mike Sullivan this season.

The Penguins’ commitment to defense has come at a bit of a cost, as the Pens are only generating 2.46 expected goals per 60 minutes this season, but that isn’t a huge deal when you have the type of all-world talent Pittsburgh has on its roster.

Pittsburgh’s defense has made it a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference — much like the Boston Bruins, who are sputtering a bit coming into Thursday night’s encounter with Sid and Co.

Even though Boston has only won five of its last 10 games, there is no reason to panic about the way the Bruins are playing. Pittsburgh and Minnesota are the only two teams in the NHL that allow less expected goals against per 60 minutes (5-on-5) and only the Stars allow fewer goals against per hour than the Bruins.

The listed odds suggest that Boston wins this game 56.2% of the time. That also tells you that, when you adjust for home-ice advantage, the B’s would be a slight favorite on neutral ice against the Penguins.

Old Post 01-16-20 10:44 PM
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msudogs
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Dallas Stars (3P) last 14 games

@ Col 1-0
@ SJ 0-0
@ Ana 1-0
@ LAK 0-0
vs Det 1-0
vs Nas 3-0
@ Ari 4-0
vs Col 1-0
vs Cal 0-2
@ Fla 2-0
@ TB 1-0
vs Edm 1-0
@ Nas 0-0
vs VGK 1-0

Old Post 01-16-20 11:00 PM
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Breadman
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 11463

I believe the Hawks are 8-1 in the second game of B/B




Tell/support a lie once, and all your truths become questionable.

Old Post 01-17-20 01:27 AM
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