we're back to a full weekend of matches, let's get after'em folks !
GL

Fewest away Premier League points won since 21st January 2019:

10 Spurs
13 Brighton
16 Watford
17 Bournemouth
17 Burnley
19 Everton
19 Newcastle
19 West Ham

Spurs have W2-D4-L11 away over the past 12 months, conceding 2+ goals in 12/17 away PL games.

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

88% Bayern
88% Dortmund
86% Man City
85% Luton
84% Cove
82% Mainz
82% Leipzig
82% Bremen
79% Atalanta
79% Sassuolo
78% Lazio
76% Frankfurt
74% Barcelona
74% Genoa
74% Villarreal
73% Villa
71% Augsburg
71% Dusseldorf
71% Hertha
71% Liverpool

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GL

BES BTTS TEAMS

84% Betis
79% Bologna
77% Wolves
76% Bremen
76% Leipzig
76% Wimbledon
74% Villarreal
74% West Brom
71% Augsburg
71% Bayern
71% Frankfurt
70% Barnsley
70% Crawley
70% Fleetwood
70% QPR
70% Stenhousemuir

Many would have predicted at the start of the season for one of these teams to be in a top four battle while the other would be outside the European places, though very few would have guessed it this way round as Sheffield United sit five places above the Gunners in the table after a tremendous opening half of the season.


The Blades, however, were fortunate to come away with all three points from Bramall Lane on Friday night having relied on a David Martin error for their goal, while VAR ruled out Robert Snodgrass’ last gasp equaliser.


The Gunners on the other hand, put on a typically underwhelming display when travelling to Selhurst Park, playing out a 1-1 stalemate and will now have top scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ruled out for the next three matches after a studs up tackle on Max Meyer, which could prove to be a huge loss.


Aubameyang has only missed two games since he joined the North London side, in which they lost 3-1 to Wolves and scraped past lowly Huddersfield 2-1 in the midst of 13 defeats from 14 winless outings.

Arsenal And Sheffield United To Draw


In fact, without his goals this season, they would have a measly 15 points to their name, just one more than rock-bottom Norwich, so Chris Wilder’s side will fancy their chances of getting something, and so do we at the prices.


The newly promoted side went unbeaten in their opening nine away games of the season, drawing six, before losing their two most recent trips by 2-0 scorelines.


However, these came against the league’s top two and Arsenal aren’t nearly of the calibre of Liverpool and Man City, so it could be back to drawing ways for the Blades after they narrowly escaped one hosting the Hammers.


In fact, only the Gunners and Wolves have had more draws than the visitors so far this term and with both teams prone to suffer from a bit of ‘draw-itis’, the single point for both outfits looks the value option.


Under 2.5 Goals


What’s more, despite Wilder’s men not typically sitting in a low block to stifle teams, their backline has been exceptionally resolute, while they have also struggled for output at times.


This has resulted in a maximum of two goals in nine of their 11 road trips, while Arsenal have seen fewer than three strikes in all but one of their five matches across all competitions under Mikel Arteta and coupled with the loss of their captain, we can see this being another low scorer.

This is Arsenal’s worst season since the the early 90s. They only have six wins in their first 22 matches and top four is all but out of sight. The remainder of this season is more about performances than results. It will be about adapting to Mikel Arteta’s system and showing that they can play the way he wants, even if it may not immediately get results.

Sheffield United are enjoying a dream first season in the Premier League. Their 32 points leave them sixth, only two points behind Manchester United. The Blades will be hoping to end the season in the European places, which would have seemed crazy in August. They already beat Arsenal at Bramall Lane, now they get their chance at Emirates Stadium.

TEAM NEWS
Arsenal will be without Calum Chambers and Kieran Tierney through long-term injuries, while Lucas Torreira, Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac will undergo late fitness tests, according to PremierInjuries.com. Star Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will also miss out as he serves his red card suspension.

The Blades may have a full squad, as it looks like Simon Moore and Michael Verrips are expected to be fit, according to PremierInjuries.com.

KEY PLAYERS

Arsenal: Nicolas Pepe

Pepe has struggled to get his Arsenal career going. He’s scored only two non-penalty goal and hasn’t created at a super high level either, with only three assists. He has proven himself as an incredible dribbler. His 5.1 successful dribbles per 90 minutes is fifth most in the league among player with at least 500 minutes. His dribbling ability has made him a great ball progresser. He’ll need to be more than that to live up to his £72m price tag, but it’s enough to make him an important cog in this team.

Sheffield United: Lys Mousset

Mousset was one of Sheffield United’s few big money signings this summer. He has repaid their faith with a team high five goals and tied for a team high three assists. He was on target fir the only goal in the Blades victory over the Gunners in October and will hope to repeat that.

PREDICTION
Sheffield United’s success has been built off of a strong defence. It’s hard to see many goals being scored, especially with the absence of Aubameyang.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw

Newcastle United will host Chelsea at the weekend, with the home team looking to end a run of four matches without a win. This won’t be easy against an improving Blues team, who are starting to find the consistency that they have been previously lacking. They have been better away from home since the appointment of Frank Lampard and they will be confident of taking the three points at St James’ Park.

The Magpies are well placed to stay up in the division under Steve Bruce, despite some early concerns about the appointment. That said, they won’t be complacent, as they know how quickly the table can change at the bottom. The recent improvement of Watford and Southampton will have raised concern. Despite two successive home defeats in the Premier League, their form at St James’ Park has mostly been good. They will be confident that they can get something on Saturday.

Chelsea are in a fairly secure position in the top four, with Champions League qualification looking likely. That would represent a huge achievement for Lampard, with many believing he would struggle to lead them into the top four due to the transfer ban. They are also in the FA Cup and Champions League, with an opportunity to challenge for a trophy. They have yet to strengthen in the transfer window, but there have been links to one or two players. However, they need to be cautious not to upset the balance in the squad, with a number of young players thriving in the first team. Another strong performance at the weekend could see the plans to strengthen put on hold until the summer.

INTERESTING STATS
Miguel Almiron has now scored in three successive matches for Newcastle across all competitions.

Tammy Abraham has now scored 13 Premier League goals for Chelsea. This is the highest total managed in a single season by an Englishman since Frank Lampard, who managed the feat on three occasions.

KEY MEN
Almiron


There was a lot of hope that one goal would send Miguel Almiron into a run of good form and that has been the case. Since his first goal for Newcastle, he has scored another three times and he looks to have his confidence back in front of goal. At the time of his signing, it was hoped that he would add cutting edge to the Newcastle attack, as he had been a class above in the MLS. There were doubts starting to surface, but his recent goals against Rochdale and Wolves have shown his quality in the final third. The Magpies will look to play on the counter attack against Chelsea, therefore the pace and final ball of Almiron will be vital. He is the one player that looks capable of causing problems for Premier League defences on a regular basis. The visitors have been susceptible to leaving spaces in their own half for opposition teams to take advantage of. Lampard will be worried about the form of the Paraguayan, who could once again be on the score sheet.

Hudson-Odoi

The recent injury to Christian Pulisic has created an opening for Callum Hudson-Odoi. It was hoped that he would be the star of the next generation at Stamford Bridge, following his performances last season. Although he wasn’t given a run in the team, he always looked threatening as a substitute and there were calls for Maurizio Sarri to give him an extended run in the team. Injury prevented him from making an immediate impact under Lampard, but his progress since returning has been slow. He now has an opportunity to secure a regular starting position in the team and his performance against Burnley was encouraging. The England international scored his first Premier League goal for the club, which maintained his impressive record at Stamford Bridge in terms of goal contributions. However, he needs to prove himself on the road and this could be a great opportunity to do that. Newcastle will give him time and space on the ball, with the aim of keeping men behind the ball. Hudson-Odoi has the ability to beat one or two men, which could be key to creating big chances for his side on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS
Jamaal Lascelles will be fit to return to the starting eleven in the Premier League. Allan Saint-Maximin is closing in on a return and could start on the bench. Fabian Schar, Yoshinori Muto and Ki Sung-Yueng are all doubts for the home side. Paul Dummett and Dwight Gayle miss out.

It is hoped that Christian Pulisic will return before the end of the month, but this weekend will come too soon. Marcos Alonso could return, while N’Golo Kante is a doubt.

VERDICT
This will be a big test for Chelsea, who have struggled to break down teams that sit deep. They only managed to win the first fixture between the clubs by a 1-0 score line. They are usually better away from home and Lampard will be confident that recent performances can be maintained to pick up the three points here. Newcastle usually increase their performance levels against the better teams, with Manchester United and Manchester City both failing to win at St James’ Park this season.

Newcastle United 1-2 Chelsea

Sergio Aguero broke Thierry Henry’s record for the most Premier League goals from an overseas player, with his hat-trick against Aston Villa last time out taking him to 177 league goals, as Man City ran out 6-1 victors at Villa Park.


Meanwhile, Palace held 10-man Arsenal to a stalemate at Selhurst Park to maintain their spot at ninth in the table, with a heavily deflected Jordan Ayew goal settling the scores in the 54th minute.


The visiting fans will certainly be starting to reminisce about their last trip to Etihad, where Andros Townsend’s special strike handed them a 2-1 lead, before a Kyle Walker tackle gave Luka Milivojevic the third goal from the penalty spot as the game eventually finished 3-2.


However, the Eagles have lost each of their other six visits to this stadium over the past decade by an aggregate scoreline of 23-1 and we somewhat doubt they’ll be able to provide another upset.


Indeed, they’ve also lost five of their last seven winless outings against the ‘Big Six’ and this seasons’ Leicester outfit, four of which have been defeats to nil, as they managed just the solitary first half strike across all of them.

ep Guardiola’s charges managed to down Dean Smith’s men without any of Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva or Kyle Walker, which speaks for itself as to how good the hosts have been.


In fact, they’ve now won 26 of their 30 fixtures at this stadium since the start of last season, 17 of which saw them winning at both half time and full time, whilst they’ve won to nil in nine of their last 14 home victories now.


Only West Ham, Watford and Norwich have netted fewer goals on the road than Roy Hodgson’s men this term, as they’ve plundered just two goals from their four trips since December.


Man City To Win To Nil


The teams they visited in that time were Watford, Newcastle, Southampton and Norwich, all of which are miles apart from the Citizens and so the win to nil certainly holds some value in this encounter.


It’s also worth noting that Aymeric Laporte continues to get closer to a return from injury and that’ll certainly make the current defenders have to put in a shift in order to maintain their starting berth for when he does return.


That healthy competition should shine through this weekend and we’d expect to see them keep a clean sheet

Watford v Tottenham | Saturday 18th January 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
The early kick-off on Saturday comes at Vicarage Road as a rejuvenated Watford host an inconsistent Spurs side.

Since Nigel Pearson has took the helm at Hertfordshire outfit the Hornets have been buzzing. Pearson hasn’t changed much in terms of personnel, however, the straight-talking former Leicester gaffer has made a few tactical tweaks that have seen Watford pick up four wins and one draw in their last five Premier League fixtures.

Firstly, he has moved from a narrow 4-2-2-2 formation which was favoured under previous managers Javi Gracia and Quique Sanchez-Flores to a 4-2-3-1 formation. The tricky Gerard Deulofeu and pacy Ismaila Sarr occupy the wide berths whilst the impressive Abdoulaye Doucoure has slotted into a more advanced attacking midfield role to help the powerful Troy Deeney at the top of the pitch.

It’s the additional presence of Doucoure in the box that has been a major benefit for Watford, he’s got the size to be a threat in the air but he’s clever with his movement and has a decent strike on him too, it’s shown with back-to-back goals for the former Rennes man.

Adam Masina came in at left back last week against Bournemouth and provided a Man of the Match display, it’s testament to Pearson’s galvanising man management that even peripheral players are making a positive impact. They will fancy their chances of upsetting Champions League finalists Spurs on Saturday, that’s for sure.

Jose Mourinho once again saw his side make hard work of an FA Cup replay against Middlesbrough during the week and that lack of killer edge is costing them at the moment. That narrow 2-1 victory was their first in five games and the injury list is not helping Mourinho’s cause.

Tanguy N’Dombele and Danny Rose remain out in the cold whereas Moussa Sissoko, Harry Kane and Ben Davies all remain on the treatment table, not to mention doubts over Christian Eriksen’s future.

Without a natural back up for Kane at the top of the pitch it makes it difficult for Jose to play his preferred direct style, the amount of long balls that Spurs play has dramatically increased since the ‘Special One’ arrived at the Lane but Heung-Min Son and Lucas Moura are anything but target men. Against low blocks they therefore find it difficult to get the frontmen in behind and with a dysfunctional midfield and less than convincing backline they cannot be backed as favourites here.

That thought process is only further encouraged when you look at Spurs’ away record, not only this season but for a good 12 months now. It’s just two wins out of 11 on the road this campaign for the North London outfit but look at that away form since February 2019 reads W2-D4-L11. Shambolic.

Sassuolo v Torino | Saturday 18th January 2019, 10:00 | Premier Sports

I always like to take goals when Sassuolo are involved. This team is among my favourites for Serie A goals, and they deliver with consistency every week.
The Neroverdi's gamebook is extremely devoted to attacking football, and I expect nothing different when they host Torino on Saturday evening.
All Sassuolo's home matches have finished with more than two goals this season

Southampton FC
+145

Everton FC
+143

glta

Real Madrid v Sevilla | Saturday 18th January 2020,

Sevilla don’t usually fare well when they travel to the Santiago Bernabéu; they have lost their last ten league visits (an agg of 35-8) and the Andalucians frailties on the road against the big boys have been well-documented in recent times.

But Julen Lopetegui’s team are a different beast; they are now a well-drilled, resilient outfit and a shadow of the flaky Sevilla we have been accustomed to when playing away from the cauldron Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan.

They are unbeaten in their last five on the road, conceding three while they have kept a total of five clean sheets in their 10 away games this season. Lopetegui’s men have suffered two defeats away from the Sanchez Pizjuan: an extremely unfair 4-0 at Camp Nou and 3-2 at Eibar having taken a 2-0 lead. With six wins and two draws, Sevilla boast the best away record in Spain and they will pose a stern test to the newly-crowned Supercopa champions on Saturday afternoon.

Eden Hazard once again misses out through injury while both teams’ star South Americans – Fede Valverde and Lucas Ocampos – are unfortunately suspended.

Valverde’s mobility and energy will be a big loss against a durable Sevilla midfield and defence. His ability to break the lines and pull the opposition out of shape has been key to Madrid’s revival. Without the Uruguayan, Madrid lack that dynamism and mobility and they may struggle to break down the visitors.

You would have to fancy Madrid at home but, unlike previous seasons, this is far from a gimme. Two of Madrid’s last four games in front of their own fans have ended 0-0 and upon his return to the Bernabéu, Lopetegui will be looking to frustrate Zidane’s men. At the other end, Madrid themselves have been excellent defensively, conceding once in their last five league games.

Ocampos is a huge loss for the visitors and it will be interesting to see if new-signing Youssef En-Nesyri will be thrown into the deep end so soon. The Moroccan is a very exciting acquisition and he really could transform Sevilla’s season into something special.

He’s everything Luuk De Jong isn’t: aggressive, mobile, absolutely unbelievable in the air and he brings that raw energy which Sevilla badly lack up front. Consistency and mentality are the two big question marks which hang over the 22-year old, but with the likes of Banega, Ocampos, Navas, Jordan, Reguilón behind him in attack he should make the jump to the next level.

Curiously, despite both teams renowned attacking styles, only one of the last five meetings have seen both teams scoring. The prices suggest we should see goals but I’m not so sure. A low-scoring draw or Madrid to scrape home feels the way to go.

Given the dependence on Karim Benzema, Zidane will be looking to his midfield generals to lend a hand in attack and we should see Toni Kroos and Casemiro pop up at some stage. They are worth a nibble each-way at the prices.