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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Glentoran v Warrenpoint | Saturday 11th January 2020
For the first time on our World Football column, we’re going to delve into the top-flight of football in Northern Ireland this weekend. We’re quite a way through the season in the Northern Irish Premiership, with teams playing roughly 23 or 24 games. It may only be a 12-team division by we have a five-way tussle at the top, with all sides separated by only four points.
One of those five in question is Glentoran, who find themselves in fourth on 47 points, some three points behind top of the table Cliftonville. At the other end of the scale however we have poor old Warrenpoint, who sit at the bottom with only 13-points, although they are only bottom below Institute on goal difference.
Warrenpoint have scored the fewest with 19 and conceded the most with 69, but it is not all bad though! They have claimed four points across their last two away matches, including an important victory at Institute, and a creditable draw at mid-table Glenavon.
It won’t come as any surprise to see Glentoran as a rather short price to claim maximum points on Saturday afternoon. Only Linfield has claimed more home points than they’ve done, whilst only Crusaders and Coleraine have scored more goals overall in the current league campaign. Only Linfield have more goals at home, whilst only Cliftonville and Linfield have conceded less at home. They’re pretty good at home!
Glentoran are also unbeaten in league action since October 4th, and they’ve since been away to Warrenpoint in that time and left comfortable 4-0 winners. Therefore, they’ve unbeaten in 13, and have won each of their last four ‘to nil’. Warrenpoint did at least claim a morale-boosting midweek cup victory, but that was a rare success for them in what has been a tough campaign thus far.
Warrenpoint had lost every single away league game this season prior to their last two, and they’ve conceded an average of 3.08 goals on the road, too. You only have to rattle off some of their away results this season to showcase some of their struggles, and 7-0, 6-0 and three 4-0’s makes for rather grim reading.
The reality is that they tend to crumble away when conceding, as at home they’ve lost plenty too, but not to the same level of severity.
Glentoran are often among the goals as well, and their last five home league wins read 3-1, 3-1, 6-1, 3-0 and 2-0, and that 3-0 was against reigning champions Linfield. Taking this into account and how leaky Warrenpoint are, I’m pleasantly surprised to see we can get a price of 19/20 (Unibet) on Glentoran Over 2.5 Goals.
The only way this doesn’t really pay-out is if Warrenpoint produce a defensive masterclass or the keeper plays a blinder, but they’re shipping goals far too regularly, especially away, to believe that’ll happen out of the blue.
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01-11-20 09:58 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wolves v Newcastle | Saturday 11th January 2020, 10:00
Every league seems to have a side defying the data and Newcastle are certainly that in the top-flight of English football. Steve Bruce’s side have gained an impressive 25 points from their first 21 matches this season but the Expected Goals (xG) data suggests that should be nearer 15.
The Geordies have been boosted by a lot of single goal victories, often via goals from defenders and there is a concern about the reliance of goals from this area. Striker Joelinton has just one goal from 21 games and the attacking pair of Allan Saint-Maximum and Miguel Almiron have also looked poor in front of goal.
That said, the former in particular is a real asset from open play and he may well be back from injury for this encounter.
Even if the Frenchman is, I like the look of a Wolves victory and Under 3.5 Goals to be scored here. To date this season, Newcastle have lost seven of their 10 away fixtures and only three have contained three goals or fewer. However, those other defeats came against Norwich, Liverpool, Leicester and Manchester United, all of whom tend to see more goals than Wolves games.
This bet has landed in three of Wolves’ four home victories this season and given that the last three games between these two have contained just seven goals, I struggle to see a goalfest.
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01-11-20 10:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Palace look likely to avoid relegation, despite scoring only 19 goals through 21 games. They’ll be looking up at the European places if they keep this form up. A win against Arsenal would go a long way towards reaching the top seven. Palace have struggled to score, but Arsenal’s poor defence could be a big opportunity.
Arsenal have improved under Mikel Arteta and have two consecutive wins for the first time since early October. The rest of the season is all about evaluating and improving performances for them. That said, they would still like to win games. Top four is unlikely, but not totally out of sight. It will be out of sight if they don’t win games like this.
TEAM NEWS
Crystal Palace have a huge injury crisis on their hands. Andros Townsend, Jeffrey Schlupp, Joel Ward, Scott Dann, Patrick Van Aanholt and Mamadou Sahko are already ruled out, while Christian Benteke, Max Meyer, Jairo Riedewald, Victor Camarasa and Wilfried Zaha are all doubts, according to PremierInjuries.com. Luka Milivojevic is out through suspension on top of all of the injuries.
Arsenal have injury issues of their own with Calum Chambers and Kieran Tierney ruled out and Hector Bellerin doubtful, according to PremierInjuries.com.
KEY PLAYERS
Crystal Palace: Wilfried Zaha
Zaha hasn’t hit the heights of last season, but he is still Palace’s most important player. His dribbling ability could be devastating against Arsenal’s makeshift wingbacks. Palace have struggled for creativity all season and need Zaha to have a prayer of creating chances consistently.
Arsenal: Mesut Ozil
Ozil has seen a revival in the early part of the Arteta era. He has been back in the team and getting in more space than he has in ages. His creative passing still isn’t what it used to be, but his ball progression has been a welcome addition. He still has more cutting edge in the final third than anyone else on this team and that he is needed in the short term.
PREDICTION
Palace’s injury issues really hold them back. They may really struggle to score and Arsenal’s improvement is significant enough to give them a good chance in this match.
Prediction: 2-1 Arsenal
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01-11-20 10:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Bournemouth v Watford | Sunday 12th January 2020, 9:00 | Sky Sports
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Watford are a popular pick on Sunday afternoon given the recent fortunes of these two sides. Bournemouth have just four points from their last 10 Premier League matches while Watford have seen a performance and result boost since Quique Sanchez Flores left the Hornets. They have 10 points from their last four games, with wins against Wolves and Manchester United in that sample.
However, I cannot back them at 7/4 when the Hertfordshire side have just one away victory so far this season. Moreover, while they have clearly performed well under Nigel Pearson I do think they've had some fortune in each of their victories. While they deserved to beat both United and Aston Villa, they were benefitted by goalkeeping howlers and refereeing decisions in both of them.
There is no doubt that Bournemouth's recent form has been wretched and they have one of the most severe injury lists in the top flight. Nathan Ake, David Brooks and Josh King are key absentees and without the latter two the Dorset side have far less attacking threat.
Since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have been indebted to their forwards for keeping them in the division as they have found it difficult to keep clean sheets. However, during their recent poor run they have struggled to score goals, finding the net just twice in their last seven games.
Since Sanchez Flores left, Watford have been far more solid defensively, conceding just six goals in their seven league games since the start of December. Given that they've faced five of the current top seven in that sample that is a great effort.
All this leads me to oppose goals. There have been three or more in just five of Bournemouth's last 14 league games and only two of Watford's seven matches under Hayden Mullins and Nigel Pearson. Under 2.5 Goals is 10/11 with Bet365 and that gets my vote.
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01-12-20 02:04 PM |
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