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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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MLB Whip Around 5/26/19
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (973) SEATTLE vs. (974) OAKLAND
Favoring: OAKLAND on the money line.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(44-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.3%, +33.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor OBP (<=.320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings
(46-21 since 1997.) (68.7%, +37.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 0 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play On - Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(41-19 since 1997.) (68.3%, +33.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +4.1 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (979) BALTIMORE vs. (980) COLORADO
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the money line.
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - after a game where they had 17 or more hits, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 10 games
(47-28 since 1997.) (62.7%, +38.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
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05-26-19 04:22 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more
(46-11 since 1997.) (80.7%, +33.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more
(47-17 since 1997.) (73.4%, +35.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games
(42-15 since 1997.) (73.7%, +32.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2 -0.5 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, +33.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
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05-26-19 04:22 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sunday, 05/26/2019 (975) SAN DIEGO vs. (976) TORONTO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team (TORONTO) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after 3 straight games where they had 5 or less hits
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +28.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +1.6 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (953) LA DODGERS vs. (954) PITTSBURGH
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (PITTSBURGH) - team with a terrible SLG (<=.390) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +30 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (973) SEATTLE vs. (974) OAKLAND
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +26.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings
(45-15 since 1997.) (75.0%, +28.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
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05-26-19 04:23 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sunday, 05/26/2019 (951) MIAMI vs. (952) WASHINGTON
Favoring: WASHINGTON against the spread.
MIAMI is 1-13 (-15.5 Units) against the run line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was MIAMI 2.1, OPPONENT 7 - (Rating = 5*)
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
TAMPA BAY is 24-10 (+15.3 Units) against the run line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
CLEVELAND is 14-35 (-27.1 Units) against the run line when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
TAMPA BAY is 39-19 (+19.8 Units) against the run line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
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05-26-19 04:24 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. BOS
Chris Paddack (R) $10,600, SD @ TOR
Trevor Bauer (R) $10,100, CLE vs. TB
Verlander has been dominant this season, averaging a +5.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating to go along with his 3.45 xFIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. At the time of writing, Verlander and the Astros are -176 favorites while the Red Sox are implied for 3.5 runs, which is pretty solid considering the strength of their opponent.
Verlander carries a favorable 7.9 K Prediction, but he’ll be tested against this projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 22.1% strikeout rate and high .348 wOBA, including the 10th-ranked offense in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Given the high price and difficult matchup, paying down at pitcher may be the ideal roster construction to get to some of the elite bats.
Paddack has an intriguing matchup against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 29.9% strikeout rate and .270 wOBA. However, he’s not the best value with his -3.19 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments with his 28.7% strikeout rate against a team with a high strikeout rate and one that has struggled to generate runs against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in wRC+.
Bauer has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs while striking out five or fewer hitters in each start. He owns a solid 8.4 K Prediction, but given the dynamics of the slate, I’d prefer to pay down from this tier, unless you’re looking to be contrarian in tournaments.
While Bauer projects well in our Models, he carries some risk against an offense that owns a top-seven offense in team ISO and wRC+ against righties this season.
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05-26-19 04:52 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. BOS
Chris Paddack (R) $10,600, SD @ TOR
Trevor Bauer (R) $10,100, CLE vs. TB
Verlander has been dominant this season, averaging a +5.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating to go along with his 3.45 xFIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. At the time of writing, Verlander and the Astros are -176 favorites while the Red Sox are implied for 3.5 runs, which is pretty solid considering the strength of their opponent.
Verlander carries a favorable 7.9 K Prediction, but he’ll be tested against this projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 22.1% strikeout rate and high .348 wOBA, including the 10th-ranked offense in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Given the high price and difficult matchup, paying down at pitcher may be the ideal roster construction to get to some of the elite bats.
Paddack has an intriguing matchup against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 29.9% strikeout rate and .270 wOBA. However, he’s not the best value with his -3.19 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments with his 28.7% strikeout rate against a team with a high strikeout rate and one that has struggled to generate runs against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in wRC+.
Bauer has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs while striking out five or fewer hitters in each start. He owns a solid 8.4 K Prediction, but given the dynamics of the slate, I’d prefer to pay down from this tier, unless you’re looking to be contrarian in tournaments.
While Bauer projects well in our Models, he carries some risk against an offense that owns a top-seven offense in team ISO and wRC+ against righties this season.
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05-26-19 04:54 PM |
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