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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Houston, you were fine tuned into this league last year.Do you have any sleeper teams we should watch for value early on? I am seeing a lot of juicy underdogs this weekend.
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03-01-18 07:05 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Everton at Burnley (Saturday 7:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Burnley +150, Everton +235, Draw +210
The first value play comes in the first match of the weekend and Burnley and Everton are two of the tougher teams to figure out in the EPL. Burnley sit on 37 points in 7th place but have scored just 22 goals this season (failing to score in 11 matches). Their defense has kept them in nearly every contest, keeping a clean sheet 10 times (25 goals overall), but the metrics say this club is exceeding expectations.
Everton could equal Burnley’s season point total with a victory this weekend, but they’ve struggled defensively conceding 47 goals, and also don’t score as often as they should (just over 1 per game). It’s always hard to trust Everton to come out with a victory, and the betting public is a bit heavy on them as well. Saturday’s matchup features a low total of just 2 goals, so you can guess where I’m looking: the draw. With the public heavy on both the home (56%) and road (32%) sides and a low total of just 2 goals, you know where I’m going: Draw +210.
Stoke City at Southampton (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Southampton -140, Stoke +450, Draw +275
This is a match where you could take the “buy-low” angle on both clubs. Southampton are the second-worst at home this season while Stoke are tied for the worst on the road. Only one point separates the two clubs but there’s a big disparity in the odds, and I’m not really buying into it. The public, however, seems to love the home side as more than 90% of bettors at both Bookmaker and Sportsbook are taking Southampton to win. This is a great spot to fade the home favorite and grab a really good price of +450 on Stoke City.
Manchester United at Crystal Palace (Monday 2:45 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Crystal Palace +600, Man Utd -180, Draw +310
The last value play of the week involves Monday’s encounter between Crystal Palace and Manchester United. The Red Devils are coming off a 2-1 comeback victory at home over Chelsea, a result that has led a flurry of bettors to bet on United (>85% of bets), though that’s basically par for the course. Public bettors love to flock to clubs like Manchester United as big favorites, and they’ll likely be a part of many parlays.
If you don’t follow EPL, that may sound too specific or backfitted, but makes sense when looking at the routine schedule— the Monday matches are the last ones of the matchweek, and home teams benefit from the weekend at home and prolonged rest. How profitable have these Monday home dogs been? In 40 matches since 2012, the home dog has won 12 times for +27.15 units earned overall. Sometimes these “situational” spots come naturally in sports, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crystal Palace pull off the home shocker at +600 odds over United.
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03-03-18 12:58 AM |
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