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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Nice work Gary! Hopefully I will have a little time to do MLS this year as it starts next week I believe.
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02-23-18 11:09 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Swansea at Brighton (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
Swansea have been heartbreakers for me by continuing to win matches and crawling out of the relegation zone. On Saturday the Swans travel to Brighton as sizable underdogs with a very low game total of 2 goals (u-113). Despite the public willing to take Swansea (30% of moneyline bets), we’ve seen their odds get worse from +295 to +340. Nearly 60% of public bettors have taken Brighton to get the victory at home and the odds have moved in that direction, from +120 to +107.
Lopsided public action on both sides is exactly what I was hoping to see for this match since I was leaning draw, and fading the public only helps my decision. Historically, draws with low totals of 2 goals have been successful every season that we’ve tracked data, including this year (9-11 record, +8.15 units). When goals aren’t expected, the likelihood of a draw increases, and I don’t see this game ending any higher than 1-1. Both teams need points, and I can’t see Swansea getting another victory. The draw is available at +222 odds and that’s where I’m putting my money.
Southampton at Burnley (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
My rationale for taking the Southampton/Burnley Draw at +210 is the same as Swansea/Brighton– a very low total of 2 goals and a short draw line of +210. Southampton, much like Swansea and Brighton, desperately need to rack up points through the end of the season in order to stay in the EPL. Burnley, on the other hand, have been quite surprising this year and find themselves on 36 points, in seventh position in the league ahead of squads like Leicester City and Everton.
On paper this seems like a win for Burnley, but the odds and line movement suggest otherwise. Southampton have moved from +200 to +172 since opening despite getting just 20% of betting tickets at Burnley. It’s also critical to look at how oddsmakers view Southampton– despite currently stuck in the relegation zone, seven other clubs have shorter odds to be relegated. The market believes that Southampton finds a way out of relegation, and bettors agree it starts this weekend. While I can’t hop on board that Southampton will get the victory on Saturday, they have enough talent to grab a point on the road, so the draw at +210 is where I’m going.
Chelsea at Manchester United (Sunday 9:05 a.m. ET)
Public bettors and line movement have both been heavily toward Chelsea since opening, moving their odds from +307 to +245. A few factors can explain the love for Chelsea:
1) They just played a great 1-1 draw against Barcelona in Champions League action.
2) Man United just played a disappointing 0-0 draw at Sevilla in Champions League action.
3) +250 to +300 is a great price for Chelsea, who are arguably playing better than United over the last couple weeks.
This match will take the most action of the weekend and the majority of public bettors will want to take a side: either Chelsea at +245 odds, or Man United at +134 odds. At the time of publication, Chelsea were receiving 50% of tickets while Man United have attracted 38%. That means only 12% of tickets are taking the draw at +230 odds but that’s where I see this match finishing. Despite both clubs playing the fewest number of draws this season (five apiece), I can’t see this match ending in anything but a draw. You also get to fade the public by taking the draw, and neither team would complain about grabbing a point in this one.
Manchester City at Arsenal (Thursday 2:45 pm ET)
While I don’t have any value play on this match, I couldn’t ignore it completely. Manchester City are small -111 favorites to win at The Emirates, with Arsenal at +278 and the draw at +317. Early betting percentages have been evenly spread out with 55% on City, 23% on Arsenal, and 22% on Draw. This match will be very interesting since it’ll be the second time in four days that the teams meet– they’ll play in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday morning, a match that has greater significance than their Premier League clash. It’s very possible that Man City will decide to play an inferior lineup by the time Thursday rolls around and we could see these odds shift considerably. At +278 odds, I would be leaning on the home side Arsenal to get the outright victory.
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02-24-18 08:32 AM |
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