The Pens are at home for game 4, being up 2-1. You would think the Caps would cowboy up and put in a great effort to tie things up at 2-2 right ? So exactly how does history say the Pens will do tonight ?
It says the Pens are in a bit of trouble tonight and the oddsmakers are yelling at you about it by having the Caps a -115 fave and higher. In this situation the home team has a horrible 47% win rate in this situation. With the Caps at this much of a fave it's pretty much right on. Personally I would wait for the late Pens money to come in to get a better payback on the Caps.
Letang's suspension will have a big effect on the Pens puck movement on the PP & moving out of their own end. I can see a few neutral zone turnovers turning into great scoring opportunities for the Caps tonight. Murray will need to stand on his head again, if they're to go up 3-1 before heading back to Washington.
Both games are 2-1 tonight, but one home team is in the lead while one road team is in the lead.
Let's take the Sharks being up 2-1 tonight in Nashville. Here the Sharks are a under .500 prop, hitting at 47%. So the Preds are a slight bargain at -109.....very slight.
Now how about the Blues being up 2-1. Here you have a huge bargain if you can trust the Stars goaltending. In this situation the home team is hitting at a horrible 46.5% for all rounds and a much worse 42.1% for the quarterfinal round. Now this last number is based on only 57 games, but still a good little sample.
So tonight we have a slight play on the Preds and big play on the Stars.....again that's if you can trust their goaltending.