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bigdadi
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Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 8931

Stats on a couple MLB scores?

Is there anyone know of stats on

(1) how did 50%+ teams perform (W-L) in the game after they lost 6 more runs (example final 1-7, or 2-10).

(2) how did 50%+ teams perform (W-L) in the game after they were shut out.

I know it is kind of hard because the 50% above or below is a constant changing number, except to decide take that % at the end of regular season or something like that.

Thanks./ BD

Old Post 05-26-05 02:30 PM
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fulkgl
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Posts: 2093

YTD 50%+ team shut-out next game...

MIN 3-0
CWS 1-0
BAL 2-2
TOR 1-0
ANA 1-1
OAK 0-1
TX 2-0
SEA 0-1
STL 1-0
HOU 0-1
CHC 0-1
MIL 0-3
FL 0-1
WAS 3-1
NYM 0-2
LAD 0-1
SD 1-1
ARZ 2-0

total 17-16
sorry, but doesn't look too good.

Old Post 05-26-05 06:17 PM
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fulkgl
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50%+ team lost by 6+ next game...

MIN 2-0
CWS 1-0
BOS 2-0
BAL 2-2
NYY 2-0
TOR 1-2
ANA 3-1
TX 1-1
STL 1-1
CHC 0-1
CIN 1-0
ATL 1-0
FL 3-0
PHL 0-2
WAS 3-1
NYM 1-1
SF 0-2
LAD 2-3
SD 1-0
COL 0-1
ARZ 2-2

total 29-20. A little better

Old Post 05-26-05 06:22 PM
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fulkgl
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If I wait until May 1st to better establish the teams.... then we get much better results.

19-7 on the lost last by 6+
14-4 on the lost last by shutout

If we eliminate the NYM and LAD...
L6... 17-4
SH... 14-1

Old Post 05-26-05 06:33 PM
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fulkgl
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So that says following this system, you should play ON WAS Friday when they visit STL.

Old Post 05-26-05 06:38 PM
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jack


Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 55

sir

that was a fast reply where did you get your information?

Old Post 05-26-05 09:35 PM
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fulkgl
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I cut and paste the data each day from WagerOnline to get a record of the games. I copy this into an APL workspace. I then write APL programs to handle the data. APL is an obscure old mathametician computer programming language (APL=A Programming Language started in 1966). So I took the contraints listed and wrote a simple function call "SYSTEM_BIGDADI". Below is the run for today. Note, the "***" indicates the next play on teams (LAD and WAS).

SYSTEM_BIGDADI 350
50%+ teams lose by 6+ or shutout...next game
enter SYSTEM_BIGDADI 350 to start count at May 1


MIN L6= 2 0 SH= 3 0
CWS L6= 0 0 SH= 1 0
BOS L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
BAL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
NYY L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
TOR L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ANA L6= 2 1 SH= 1 0
TX L6= 1 0 SH= 2 0
STL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
CHC L6= 0 1 SH= 0 0
MIL L6= 0 0 SH= 0 1
FL L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
WAS L6= 2 0 SH= 1 0 ***
NYM L6= 0 1 SH= 0 2
SF L6= 0 1 SH= 0 0
LAD L6= 2 2 SH= 0 1 ***
SD L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ARZ L6= 1 1 SH= 2 0
19 7 14 4

Old Post 05-26-05 11:17 PM
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bigdadi
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Re yor Shut Out List, from CBS Sportsline Standing just now, I think these are not qualified as over 50% ... taken these 0-6 off then the result is 17-10

CHC 0.467 0-1
MIL 0.500 0-3
OAK 0.378 0-1
HOU 0.348 0-1

Old Post 05-27-05 12:23 AM
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bigdadi
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Thursday 5/26 :

L6 Play(s) on teams up-to-date W% more than 50%

5/25 LAD L 2-10 (0.511)
Play on LAD

Old Post 05-27-05 12:37 AM
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fulkgl
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Let's take a look at the first one, CHC.

On Apr 21 they stood with an 8-7 record, played STL and were shutout (0-4).

On Apr 23 (next game) they had an 8-8 record. That's 50% or more. They lost 4-3 to PIT on Apr 23.

Did you mean "greater than 50%" record or "50% or greater" record? I interpreted the request as the later. So an 8-8 record was a play.

Old Post 05-27-05 01:23 AM
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fulkgl
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Ok, let's assume the request has changed to the team must have a winning record (ie. greater the .500). Simple coding change. Here's the new numbers.

YTD...
MIN L6= 2 0 SH= 3 0
CWS L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
BOS L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
BAL L6= 2 1 SH= 2 1
NYY L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
TOR L6= 1 1 SH= 1 0
ANA L6= 3 1 SH= 1 1
TX L6= 1 0 SH= 2 0
STL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
HOU L6= 0 0 SH= 0 1
CIN L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
MIL L6= 0 0 SH= 0 3
ATL L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
FL L6= 3 0 SH= 0 0
WAS L6= 2 0 SH= 1 0 ***
NYM L6= 1 1 SH= 0 1
LAD L6= 2 3 SH= 0 1 ***
SD L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ARZ L6= 1 2 SH= 2 0
26 9 15 8

starting May 1...
MIN L6= 2 0 SH= 3 0
CWS L6= 0 0 SH= 1 0
BOS L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
BAL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
NYY L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
TOR L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ANA L6= 2 1 SH= 1 0
TX L6= 1 0 SH= 2 0
STL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
MIL L6= 0 0 SH= 0 1
FL L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
WAS L6= 2 0 SH= 1 0 ***
NYM L6= 0 1 SH= 0 1
LAD L6= 2 2 SH= 0 1 ***
SD L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ARZ L6= 1 1 SH= 2 0
19 5 14 3

Still show WAS(fri) and LAD(thur) plays.

Old Post 05-27-05 01:32 AM
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bigdadi
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Well, I consider 50% is kind of neutral ground, above is play, below is no play ... all depends on how the figures come out.

Old Post 05-27-05 02:16 AM
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bigdadi
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Begin Season
MIN L6= 2 0 SH= 3 0
CWS L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
BOS L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
BAL L6= 2 1 SH= 2 1
NYY L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
TOR L6= 1 1 SH= 1 0
ANA L6= 3 1 SH= 1 1
TX L6= 1 0 SH= 2 0
STL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
HOU L6= 0 0 SH= 0 1
CIN L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
MIL L6= 0 0 SH= 0 3
ATL L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
FL L6= 3 0 SH= 0 0
WAS L6= 2 0 SH= 1 0 ***
NYM L6= 1 1 SH= 0 1
LAD L6= 2 3 SH= 0 1 ***
SD L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ARZ L6= 1 2 SH= 2 0
26 9 15 8

Starting May 1...
MIN L6= 2 0 SH= 3 0
CWS L6= 0 0 SH= 1 0
BOS L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
BAL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
NYY L6= 1 0 SH= 0 0
TOR L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ANA L6= 2 1 SH= 1 0
TX L6= 1 0 SH= 2 0
STL L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
MIL L6= 0 0 SH= 0 1
FL L6= 2 0 SH= 0 0
WAS L6= 2 0 SH= 1 0 ***
NYM L6= 0 1 SH= 0 1
LAD L6= 2 2 SH= 0 1 ***
SD L6= 1 0 SH= 1 0
ARZ L6= 1 1 SH= 2 0
19 5 14 3

Old Post 05-27-05 02:24 AM
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bigdadi
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I think it's going to have better performance down the road because in April there're not as many games to plot the +50%-. For example 1-0 is 100%, 1-1 is 50%, 1-2 is 33% ... 1st 3 games can make the % looking day or night. So the more games to form the % the better.

Old Post 05-27-05 02:28 AM
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bigdadi
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We can see the W-L % pattern if you can query one starting April 29 which is the midway between 4/3 and 5/25

Old Post 05-27-05 02:31 AM
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fulkgl
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The query starting on Apr 29 is the same as the May 1 query... 19-5 and 14-3. It looks like LAD is the first test tonight. I hope this works. Adding another winning system is always good.

Old Post 05-27-05 04:56 AM
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fulkgl
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After LAD win tonight, this system is a combined 31-6. The 5/27 plays are...
WAS
FL
ARZ
BOS

Old Post 05-27-05 07:21 AM
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bigdadi
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83.78%? I love it.

Today's 4 plays : 3 dogs, 1 fav.

Not bad, not bad at all.

Old Post 05-27-05 12:35 PM
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bigdadi
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fulkgl

How did you end up 31-6??? I checked the abve numbers, starting 5/1 the combined figure is 33-8??? 81% still very good though.

Old Post 05-27-05 03:20 PM
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jack


Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 55

bigdadi

been following you alls posts with this quit interesting, 33-8, but were any of them the same game, say washington gets shut out 6-0?
that would affect the record, right?
thanks
jack

Old Post 05-27-05 03:51 PM
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