Jordan Thompson vs. Lorenzo Musetti – Queen’s Club

I’m going with a similar approach with Thompson as I did with Brandon Nakashima the other day. I noted that I liked Nakashima’s ability to serve and play a straightforward baseline game to win out against Musetti, who relies heavily on his talent and plays a very flashy game. Musetti ended up beating Nakashima, who played a sloppy service game late in the third set after working his way back into the match. Well, I don’t see that happening with Thompson, who maximizes his ability as well as anyone on tour.

Thompson should have a slight edge in the serving department here, and he’s a very good player at the net. That should allow him to win quick points on his serve, and I think Thompson will have a few more break point opportunities than Musetti. That’s ultimately why I’m playing the 30-year-old here. He’s on a tremendous run throughout this event, as he has earned wins over Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz. After facing those two, he shouldn’t be overwhelmed by Musetti’s shot-making ability. It’s also worth noting that Thompson has played 37 more matches on grass than Musetti. So, he should have a better understanding of how to solve problems throughout this one.

Bet: Thompson ML (-125 – 1.5 units)

Sebastian Korda vs. Tommy Paul – Queen’s Club

Last week, I had Korda +102 to beat Paul in ‘s-Hertogenbosch. Korda ended up earning a 6-4, 6-2 win over Paul in that one. However, despite that straightforward win for Korda, he’s now an even bigger underdog against Paul than he was last time. That’s a little odd on its own, but it’s even weirder when you look at the success Korda has had on grass since then. After beating Paul, Korda beat Tallon Griekspoor before losing to Alex De Minaur in the final. And this week, Korda has earned wins over Karen Khachanov and Grigor Dimitrov. The latter is one of the best grass-court players in the world. With that in mind, Korda has a 4-1 head-to-head advantage over Paul, he beat him handedly last week and he’s in better form. To me, this seems like a trap from the oddsmakers.

When I see a very smelly line like this one, I tend to try and side with the oddsmakers. So, I’m backing Paul on the moneyline. And the reality is that Paul is playing better than he did last week. Sure, wins over clay-court specialists like Sebastian Baez and Alejandro Tabilo in the first two rounds weren’t all that impressive. But a three-set win in a battle against Jack Draper, who was fresh off a win over Carlos Alcaraz, shows that Paul is getting more and more comfortable on this surface.

I also think the faster court speeds in London will help Paul out. His serve will be a little tougher for Korda to return, meaning he should rack up holds a little easier than he did last week. And in highly competitive sets, or even tiebreakers, Paul’s small edge in baseline ability should matter.

Bet: Paul ML (-138)