From South America to St. Louis, Missouri, we search for UFC best bets at this week’s Fight Night event. This fight slate is comprised of thirteen scheduled bouts to be competed in the larger thirty-foot octagon, with participants arriving from thirteen differing countries.

Six of the thirteen bouts feature athletes 170 pounds or greater. Finish rates in three round fights comprised of fighters weighing 170 pounds and above are 58.3%, so we may witness violent finishes on this card, at least that is the hope!

Derrick Lewis -1450 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento +125
Heavyweight (265 pounds) main event

Brazilian mixed martial artist Nascimento is the fifteenth-ranked athlete in the division. The 31-year-old is a blue belt in BJJ and a well-rounded grappler/striker who steps up in level of competition for this, his first five-round main event.

Derrick Lewis is now 39 and ranked twelfth in the division. Lewis is not a mixed martial artist. Rather, he is a behemoth who stalks opponents down and clubs them into unconsciousness with his singularly dimensioned one-strike KO power.

Lewis is short on footwork, take down defense and stamina though early in fights he displays athleticism and explosion though the limit for his explosiveness is around four minutes, then Lewis is a telegraphing headhunter.

At this stage of his career, when Lewis fights, he’s calculating how best to expend his precious energy. His one way to earn victory is to touch the opponent on the teeth. With one detonation, Lewis can put adversaries to sleep with one telegraphed connection. That is Lewis’ plan of attack in any fight.

Nascimento’s last three bouts have all gone to decision so he can effectively compete for fifteen minutes, and it must be his approach to take Lewis past the first five minutes to burden the ‘Black Beast,’ force him to tire and therefore make any takedown attempt that much easier to execute.

The issue for Nascimento may be his chin. Is his sole loss earlier in his career to journeyman Chris Daukaus, who is no longer in the organization, Nascimento was knocked out, and Daukaus has fractions of the speed and power that Lewis holds.

Should Nascimento, who opened a pick ’em against Lewis, be ‘chinny’ as that fight against Daukaus indicated, then it is fair to say that he is in real danger against a profuse pounder like Lewis.

The total in this fight is lines 1.5 Under -145, which is concerning if one is trying to make a case for the Brazilian traveling to the ‘show me state’ to compete against a pure knockout threat like Lewis.

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs. Nursulton Ruziboev +150
Welterweight (170 pounds) co-main event

We last saw eleventh-ranked Buckley 18-6 overwhelm top-fifteen-ranked Vicente Luque with his power striking in New York on March 30th. That display put Buckley in the rankings and put the division on notice that this man is a natural-born finisher.

Buckley rarely employs a wrestling base developed in high school, as his vicious fighting style was groomed in the streets of East St. Louis.

Besides fighting in his home city, Buckley totes momentum into this fight and he is exuding great confidence. Confidence is one weapon UFC fighters often boomerang into dynamic success.

Ruziboev, 34-8-2, enters this fight with vast experience, though there are legitimate questions surrounding the authenticity of his record as well the caliber of athletes he’s faced.

Fighting out of the Renzo Gracie camp in Philly, which is known for its cultivation and refining of wrestling/grappling based talent, Ruziboev enters this fight off an impressive KO finish of the modestly talented Sedriques Dumas, which he accomplished March 30th on the same card as his opponent Buckley.

Ruziboev will hold seven inches of height supremacy and four inches of leg reach, in addition to his vast advantage in grappling.

To date, we have not witnessed Ruziboev tussle against pedigreed UFC talent, nor have we watched him have to endure any form of real trouble. That changes in this fight.

Once this scrap starts, Ruziboev will look to distance himself strategically from the aggressive keg of TNT that is Buckley. Buckley will be impatient in his attempt to gain inside access and detonate hooks, crosses, elbows, and kicks on the tall man from Uzbekistan.

Ruziboev has everything to gain in this most intriguing battle. He must weather the furious first five minutes of this fight. He must find a way to clasp hold of and press the explosive Buckley against the fence, then onto the floor.

After Buckley’s explosiveness is usurped by battle (that is the hope anyway), the fight could well turn to the towering, but well-structured grappler Ruziboev, who uses a grinding methodology as opposed to immediate and sudden impact.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angelo Dundee used to chime, and I regard this fight as exhibit ‘A’ for that quote.

Buckley opened -150 for this fight and his price has risen steadily early in the week. The total in this fight is 1.5 over -130, which indicates potential success for the Uzbeki grappler, as I do see this fight eclipsing that total.

Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg (-265) vs Alonzo “Atomic” Menifield (+215)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)

Ulberg is one of the most technically-gifted kickboxers in UFC’s light heavyweight division. He has made an MMA career through his textbook knockouts which usually come at the end of picture perfect combinations. He is a champion kickboxer and training partner of Israel Adesanya and his style and results show it. He lost his debut to Kennedy Nzechukwu despite landing 146 significant strikes. Since that fight he is 4-0, winning the most recent three inside the distance.

Menifield is a talented and well-rounded martial artist who has made an excellent career in the UFC. He is 8-3-1 with four wins via KO, and two via submission. He has seen very solid competition and has largely risen to the occasion. He has only been the underdog in three UFC fights (his last three). He is 2-0-1 in that span. He will far and away be the toughest test Ulberg has seen in the octagon so far in his career.

On paper, Ulberg’s kickboxing background comes to life, 7.29 significant strikes landed per minute, with a 59% accuracy rate. Menifield is not far off regarding accuracy at 57% percent, but is landing substantially less (3.92) significant strikes per minute. Despite being a kickboxer, Ulberg actually has higher takedown accuracy (75% to 33%) albeit on a much shorter sample size. Overall, it is likely this fight remains standing.

Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres (+185) versus Sean “The Sniper” Woodson (-225)
Over 2.5 (-280) | Under 2.5 (+210)

Woodson is a St. Louis product who has been given the chance to perform in front of a hometown crowd on the main card. He is an excellent boxer who lands 5.4 significant strikes per minute. He is also a physical anomaly at 6’2” with a 78” reach while weighing in at 145 pounds. He generally scores points early and often, preferring to land precise combos as opposed to taking big powerful swings.

Caceres has been in the UFC for 13 years. Twenty-eight of his 35 professional fights have come in MMA’s top promotion. He is now 35 years old, but is not slowing down, having won seven of his last nine fights he is also tall for the division at 5’10” with a 73.5” reach. He is an average striker, but excels in defense with 63% of his opponents attempts missing.

Over the course of his career in the UFC, Woodson has averaged 75.86 strikes landed per fight. That number includes a fight he won 4:30 into the first round and a fight he lost via submission in the third round. I do not see this fight finishing short of the scorecards. I love Woodson’s significant strikes prop OVER 70.5 on DraftKings. This number is up to 74.5 elsewhere.

Best Bet: Woodson

Only 36% bets, 50% money, sharp RLM -185 to -225

Younger (31 vs 35), taller (6'2'' vs 5'8''), longer reach (78'' vs 73.5''), plus "home octagon" advantage as Woodson is from St. Louis

Best Bet: Woodson

Only 36% bets, 50% money, sharp RLM -185 to -225

Younger (31 vs 35), taller (6'2'' vs 5'8''), longer reach (78'' vs 73.5''), plus "home octagon" advantage as Woodson is from St. Louis

Sean Woodson (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) defeats Alex Caceres by unanimous decision