Motivation I needed to keep my 5* CMU

BRANDON LANG
Wednesday's Pick
100 Dime - Troy

Note: This line is between -2 and -3.5 depending on where you shop here in Vegas or offshore. That's certainly a wide range so it's important you shop for the best price. Equally as important: go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point for insurance if your number is -3 or -3.5 (or even -4).


Analysis:

The oddsmaker got it wrong. Troy is the better team and should be the favorite. Nonetheless, buy the half-point in order to lock in at a key number.

Troy is by far the strongest team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Trojans have dominated this conference winning or sharing the title in each of the last four years. Some of the bottom Sun Belt teams are weak, but I would equate Troy as an upper tier Conference USA type of quality.

Central Michigan isn't in that class. The Mid-American Conference is weak and has been exposed during the bowls. Here's what MAC teams have done in the bowls:

Northern Illinois lost 27-3 to South Florida, a team that tied for fifth in the Big East. That was a pointspread loss of 17 1/2 points for Northern Illinois.

Temple lost to UCLA 30-21, a spread loss of five points for the Owls. UCLA had the seventh-best record in the Pac 10, which was down this season.

Ohio lost 21-17 to Marshall, a seven-point spread loss. Marshall was lucky to even get a bowl bid after tying for fifth in Conference USA with a 6-6 mark.

Bowling Green was nipped 43-42 by Idaho, a one-point spread loss. Idaho was 8-5 in the Western Athletic Conference and one of the worst defensive teams in the nation.

Looking at Central Michigan out of conference the Chippewas upset Michigan State 29-27 as a 14 1/2-point road 'dog during the second week of the season. That was their lone impressive non-conference showing versus a bowl team. The game was played in Michigan and the Spartans later lost 41-31 to Texas Tech in their bowl game.

Central Michigan had opened its season losing to Arizona, 19-6. The Wildcats were blanked by Nebraska, 33-0, in their bowl game.

Central Michigan's other key non-conference game was against Boston College, a team that went 8-5 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Boston College rolled over Central Michigan, 31-10, easily covering as 5 1/2-point favorites. Boston College went on to lose to a down USC team, 24-13, in its bowl game.

Both Central Michigan and Troy have excellent senior quarterbacks. But Troy's record-setting quarterback Levi Brown has more weapons with one of the deepest corps of receivers of any team in the country. The Trojans have too much speed at the flanks for Central Michigan to contain them.

Troy's seniors may have faced the toughest schedule during the past four years of any school. The Trojans are focused and battle-tested. They also will have a huge crowd advantage being 173 miles from Mobile, Ala., from their campus in Troy. Don't expect many Central Michigan fans to make the trek from their state in these tough economic times.

Central Michigan isn't used to traveling out of state. The Chippewas have played in Detroit in the Motor City Bowl the past three seasons. The last time they went to a bowl game outside of Michigan was 1994.

Last year, Central Michigan was upset by Florida Atlantic of the Sun Belt Conference, 24-21, as a seven-point favorite. That Florida Atlantic team was mediocre, not nearly as good as this year's Troy squad.

Unlike Troy, Central Michigan has had distractions. Its coach, Butch Jones, left to replace Brian Kelly at Cincinnati. Associate coach Steve Stripling is running the team on an interim basis.

This is not his pick. It was posted incorrectly. I will update when I see it.

Why doesn't break down Troy's out-of-conference games?

How about Troy's 56-20 loss to Arkansas, who barely nipped East Carolina in their bowl game...and that was only because ECU's kicker stinks. ECU is an upper tier Conference USA team...Troy doesn't compare.

He also ignores Troy's 31-14 loss to BOWLING GREEN, a MAC school.

The angle he's using to make this play makes no sense.

You can't go basing the play on CMU's out-of-conference schedule and ignore Troy's OOC schedule...especially when Troy played another (lesser) MAC team and got crushed.

...and to say Troy equates to an upper-tier C-USA school is just laughable.

Good luck tonight.

Teddy-

Our 1st clue should have been that he wasn't bragging about winning big money yesterday...can't wait to read it.

Even if it's CMU, I'm still taking them, tho

thats nover

yup, NOT lang... will post when I see it... I am assuming lang is on troy as welll

redd is on troy

Lang:


Wednesday's Selection ... NOTE:
Just love shutting up the haters.

And no better way to do it than with a 3-0 sweep, highlighted by not only the 25 dime winner Iowa in the first half, and 75 dime winner Iowa for the game, but the 25 dime money line play was as good as it gets.

Can't base your analysis on one guy. Josh Nesbitt couldn't hit water if he fell out of a fuc&♦^♦ing boat. Overrated passer all year long and felt great to watch him implode on the big stage.

Winning shuts everyone up. All they can grasp at is the past. Be my guest. Grasp all you want. I am about now, and now is pretty darn good, and will be very good here in 2010.

Current bowl run of 13-5. Overall bowl record of 22-15 which includes half time plays and a few teasers.

All I see in front of me right now is this GMAC Bowl. Just looking to win yet another game tonight. Just that simple.

Every winning day sends the haters away. Just like last night with Iowa, who dominated Georgia Tech in every way possible. All about bouncing back big time last night and I did just that.

Now time to add another winner to the mix.

50 DIME - TROY TROJANS - Will the MAC finally cover a bowl game?

Going back to last year the Mid American Conference is on an 0-9 ATS run.

This year alone we have seen Ohio implode, Bowling Green implode, Temple implode, and Northern Illinois implode.

I am talking about a conference that year in, and year out doesn't show up for bowls.

The river card for me tonight was watching South Florida in the 2nd half just run over, around and thru Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois couldn't do a thing offensively and that was a NIU offense which put up 31 on Central Michigan at CMU.

Troy has gotten better as the year has gone by and offensively they are playing their best ball of the year putting up 42, 50, 42, 40, 47, and 48 in 6 of their last 7 games.

I know they imploded in their two games versus BCS conference losing to Florida 56-6 and at Arkansas 56-20 but the fact still remains this team can score.

Earlier this bowl season I was watching Middle Tennessee State just destroy Southern Miss and I kept asking myself the question, "How in the world did Troy hold this Middle Tennessee State team to 7 points?

This is the best team in the Sun Belt, playing close to home, versus another MAC team that will have chances to win, should win but for whatever reason won't win because I don't care what anybody says, 0-9 ATS is 0-9 ATS.

The line move down does concern me a little bit but it's not enough to get me off going against the MAC.

When Northern Illinois showing so bad versus South florida I said right then and there I am not trusting the MAC in another bowl game this year which leaves us with this game tonight.

My dollar says the MAC finishes this year just like last year, 0-5 ATS as Troy gets the money.

FREE SELECTION - TROY-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER

thanks, i saw this... 50dimes makes me 5* on the opposite... good luck to everyone.