This point system has picked the straight up winner of the Super Bowl 36 times out of the 40 games. After looking at the matchup here is the system.

Keep in mind, I am only using the stats from the reg season, but in most cases the difference is so large that the post season games will not have any effect.

10pts to any team that has won the SB in the last 3 years.
Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0)

8pts to team if opposing team is appearing in 1st SB in franchise history.
Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0)

8pts to team that allowed fewer rushes on the year.
Chicago 402, Indy 519 (Chi 8, Indy 0)

7pts to team with best overall record.
Chicago 15-3, Indy 15-4 (Chi 15, Indy 0)

7pts to team with most offensive rushes
Chicago 503, Indy 439 (Chi 22, Indy 0)

5pts to team with lower defensive rush yds per carry
Chicago 4.0, Indy 5.3 (Chi 27, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best net kick/punt returns for TD
Chicago +5, Indy -2 (Chi 31, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best ATS record
Chicago 11-7, Indy 11-8 (Chi 35, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best net penalty yards
????Dont have answer on this one yet (Chi 35, Indy 0)

3.5pts to team with best yds per passing attempt
Chicago 6.4, Indy 7.5 (Chi 35, Indy 3.5)

3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest points
Chicago 255, Indy 360 (Chi 38.5, Indy 3.5)

3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest rushing tds
Chicago 7, Indy 20 (Chi 42, Indy 3.5)

3pts to team with the most sacks
Chicago 40, Indy 25 (Chi 45, Indy 3.5)

2.5pts to team with fewest offensive pass attempts
Chicago 514, Indy 557 (chi 47.5, Indy 3.5)

2pts to team with best net total punts
??????dont have answer for this one yet (Chi 47.5, Indy 3.5)

1.5pts to team with best offensive rush yds per carry
Chicago 3.8, Indy 4.0 (Chi 47.5, Indy 5)

1pt to team with best completion pct
Chicago 54.9%, Indy 65.0% (Chi 47.5, Indy 6)

Final tally
Chicago 47.5
Indy 6.0
Undecided 6.0

According to this system, the Bears win Super Bowl XLI

GL

Looked through the boxscores to get the missing numbers...

Chicago punted 23 times less than their opponents
Indy punt 1 more time than their opponents

Edge-Chicago (+2 points to final score)

Chicago had 161 less penalty yds than their opponents
Indy had 51 more penalty yds than their opponents

Edge-Chicago (+4 points to final score)

Overall
Chicago 53.5
Indianapolis 6.0

GL

What were the 4 times this system didn't work?
It doesn't really matter - I'm just curious.

I Love the Info......Thank you !

Before you posted this Information, I Believe that IF....The Same Bear Team that Played Today....Plays the Same in the Superbowl.........Bears Win !

Because That Team, is a Much better team then the Colts !

have you ever tried this system during the regular season? was just wondering thanks

On top it says neither gets points for opposing team to appear in 1st SB in franchise history. This is the first time Indy goes to the superbowl.

Also, which teams did the system not pick the right winner.

The Colts played in the Super Bowl when they were in Baltimore. It is the same franchise, just a different city. Also in another post you incorrectly called Dallas a dome team. Because they have hole in the roof and are subjected to playing in the elements (see Thanksgiving Day, 1993) they are NOT considered a dome team.

nice find.

I don't have the info about the ones that were losers, but I will try to research it the best I can.

I haven't used this for the regular season or playoffs.

This is the same as the Phil Steele Super Bowl system in his yearbook. I have the info somewhere and will dig it up tonight. I do know it has lost the last two years and if memory serves it had Oakland over tampa.

are you sure? it's really a matter of semantics(and the points for opposing team appearing in super bowl for first time really should be credited because it is the first time the city, the team management, etc. will experience a super bowl) but i thought that as far as "official nfl history" was concerned that the baltimore colts are a defunct franchise and the indianapolis colts began play in 1984.

I think you are right about Phil Steele having this system, but it did pick the Steelers last year. Going back a couple of years to find out how it did recently.

Technically, yes the Colts have been as a franchise even though they moved.....Rams would fall under this category with the move from LA to St Louis, Oakland was under this category when in LA and then back in Oakland.

There are not many franchises that have never been to the Super Bowl.....
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans
Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
Arizona Cardinals

That is all of them..

With the 20% record Phil Steele has comipled in the last 12 weeks in the NFL with his late phones(no exaggeration), I would go against any pick associated with him no matter what system he uses.

had New England over Philly, so has won the last 2 years.

Remember, this system is only for the straight up winner, not ATS, but it picks the Bears this year so with points you have to feel pretty comfortable. Might want to play it early, heard manning is going in for X-rays on his thumb. Imagine if he is not able to play, you would get a huge middle.

J.Kaul, nice effort as ususal, but my question is when you compare the Bears vs their opponents (NFC mostly) and the Colts (vs. AFC mostly) is this apples to apples? I think not.

Anyway, on the other side of the coin, my very early thought is that the Bears will have a MAJOR chip on their shoulder becasue you will nothing except Manning for two weeks, unless it's the ineptitude of Grossman. I see a boring, smash mouth Bears win, the Colts having a letdown following emmotional wins against the Ravens and Pats.

The straight up winner is 32-5-3 ATS

how can i not take the bears in this spot then.. thanks jkaul

understand where you are coming from, but this system has consistently worked to find the winner of the Super Bowl for 40 years, through all the different types of scheduling and so on.

Sure, the Bears schedule was easier than Indy (hell, they got to play the Lions twice!!!).

Bears
Green Bay win 26-0 and loss 7-26 8-8
Detroit win twice 34-7, 26-21 3-13
Minn win twice 19-16, 23-13 6-10
Seattle win twice 37-6, 27-24 (play) 10-8
Buffalo win 40-7 7-9
Arizona win 24-23 5-11
San Fran win 41-10 7-9
Miami loss 13-31 6-10
NYG win 38-20
Nyj win 10-0
New Eng loss 13-17
Stlouis win 42-27
tampa win 34-31
new orleans win 39-14

The 3 losses that the Bears had include a season-ending, don't care game against the Pack, and a 3rd consecutive road game against a top flight opponent in New England. Yes, the Miami loss was horrible and the close calls to Detroit in Week 16, Tampa in week 15, and Arizona earlier in the season could've turned this team from 13-3 to 10-6. I was very impressed with holding the potent Saints offense to 14 pts, 7 of which came on an 87 yd catch and run by Reggie Bush.

Indy
nyg won 26-21
hou won 43-24
jax won 21-14
nyj won 31-28
tenn won 14-13
wash won 36-22
den won 34-31
new eng won 27-20
buff won 17-16
dal lost 14-21
philly won 45-21
tenn lost 17-20
jax lost 17-44
cincy won 34-16
hou lost 24-27
miami won 27-22
kc won 23-8
bal won 15-6
ne won 38-34

Taking the playoffs out of consideration, this Indy team's schedule is not that impressive......barely getting by Tennessee the first time, sneaking by Buffalo by a point, losing to Tenn the 2nd time, getting blown out by a solid Jacksonville club, losing to Houston (uck). They were impressive in the wins over Philly and Cincy, but Philly was playing their first game without McNabb. Everyone says the AFC is a stronger conference, but look at the regular season teams that Indy beat in the AFC...Houston, Jaxville, Tenn, Denver, Buff, cincy, Miami (none made the playoffs and only beat Tenn/Buff by 1 pt each. Jets and NE were only AFC playoffs team that they played and then the losses don't even compare to Chicago's losses.

I think this will be a good game and the Bears Defense will keep it close enough for it to come down to who makes the play in the 4th quarter. DEFENSE wins championships (NE over Rams, TB over Oakland, BALT over nyg)

GL

Lets hope he doesnt use his SB system and picks the Colts.lol