DR. BOB

Chicago is a 2-Star at +7 at -1.15 odds or less.

2 Star Selection
**Chicago (+7) 23 Indianapolis 24 (at Miami)
03:15 PM Pacific, 04-Feb-07
The pointspread in the Super Bowl is determined by public perception more than a normal NFL game because more amateur money is going to be placed on this game than on any other game all season. Public perception concerning this game is that the Bears defense isnt as strong as it was earlier in the season because of injuries to safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris. The public also feels that the return of Colts safety Bob Sanders has transformed a mediocre defense into a good unit. Those two theories combine to make the Colts a 7 point favorite in this game, which is simply too high.

Chicagos defense has not been hurt at all by the losses of Brown or Harris and the Bears poor late-season performances, in which they allowed 26.3 points on 5.2 yards per play in their final 4 regular season, was a function of playing all 4 of those games without either starting cornerback Nathan Vasher (missed weeks 14 and 15) or the other star corner Charles Tillman (missed week 16 and 17) as well as being without strong safety Todd Johnson for that stretch (he only played sparingly in one of the final 5 games). The Bears run defense is actually better than their season average in 6 games since losing Harris, allowing 3.8 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average defensive team (theyre exactly average against the run for the season). The Bears lost Mike Brown in week 7 and the pass defense rated exactly the same (1.0 yards per pass play better than average) from weeks 8 through 13 (when both Vasher and Tillman were healthy) as it did from weeks 1 through 7 with Brown. So the key to Chicagos defense is not Brown or Harris, but rather having both of their high quality cornerbacks playing at the same time so the safeties can blitz or focus more on defending the run. Chicagos run defense is just average for the season (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team), but their pass defense has allowed only 4.9 yards per pass play with both starting corners playing (against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team). The Colts attack was slightly worse than average running the ball this season (4.2 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) while Peyton Manning has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Colts are 0.8 yards per play better than average for the season offensively and they have the advantage against a Bears defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average with their current personnel.

The Colts defense has certainly been better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season and most people give credit to the return of safety Bob Sanders. However, Sanders also played in 4 regular season games and the Colts were actually worse than normal in those games and the Indy defense has allowed 5.5 yppl in the 7 games that Sanders has been healthy (including the 3 playoff games) - against teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Indianapolis is also 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively for the season so Sanders is certainly not the reason for the Colts recent improved play defensively. The credit for the improvement should go to veteran linebacker Rob Morris, who has racked up 54 tackles in his 8 starts this year. The Colts normally horrible run defense was not so bad with the sure tackling Morris starting, as Indy which allowed 5.2 ypr for the season has only yielded 4.2 ypr in 8 games with Morris starting (against teams that would average 4.0 ypr against an average team). The Indianapolis pass defense has been good all season, allowing 5.7 yppp to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defensive unit, but the pass defense has been even better in Morris 8 starts (5.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Overall, the Colts rate at 0.3 yppl better than average with Morris in the lineup and Chicagos attack rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average with quarterback Rex Grossman on the field (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offensive team). Grossmans main detractors sight his 21 interceptions, but Grossmans most of his interceptions all came in just 6 games while he was interception free in 9 of 18 games and threw only 1 pick or fewer in 12 of 18 games so Grossman is not likely to throw more than 1 interception in this game.

If I assume that the Indianapolis defense is really as good as theyve been in Morris other 8 starts then my math model projects the Colts with a 347 yards (at 5.5 yppl) to 283 yards (at 4.6 yppl) in this game. Indianapolis also has a 1.7 points advantage in projected turnovers, but Chicago has a HUGE edge in special teams. The Bears explosive return man Devin Hester, who had a record 6 return TDs this season, should give the Bears excellent field position against a Colts team that allows a horrible 13.0 yards per punt return and has allowed an average starting position of the 30 yard line on kickoffs this season (not including onside kicks). Chicagos Brad Maynard averages a better than average 37.9 net yards per punt while the Colts average 34.9 net punting (mostly because their coverage is so bad). The Bears, with Hester returning punts, allow a net of just 35.0 yards on punts while the Colts allow 37.3 net punting, which is a bit worse than average. I project the starting yard line on kickoffs at the 25 yard line for the Colts and the 32 yard line for the Bears and that difference is worth more than you think it is. Chicago only out-gained their opponents by an average of 29 yards per game this season yet they out-scored their foes by an average of 11.1 points per game so dont underestimate the affect that their superior special teams may have on this game. Overall the Bears have an enormous 3.4 points edge in special teams and my math model favors the Colts by just 4 points even assuming that their defense really is improved when there is a chance that that improvement is nothing more than random variance (especially given that the Colts allowed 5.5 yppl in their Championship game win to a Patriots team that would average 5.3 yppl on the road against an average defensive team). If the Colts recent defensive improvement is indeed a mirage then my math model would favor Indy by just 1½ points. Since Im considering the Bears for a play I'll assume that the Colts are actually improved defensively (its always best to be conservative when considering a bet).

Im sure that the oddsmakers also know that the Colts should be favored by no more than 4 points on a neutral field over the Bears but they are forced to make the line higher based on the tendency of the public to bet on the favorite in the Super Bowl. That tendency comes from the memory of a series of Super Bowl blowouts from the mid-80s to the mid-90s when the average margin of victory in the Super Bowl was 23 points over a 12 year stretch from 1984 through 1995. There is certainly a long history of blowout wins in Championship games going back to the pre-Super Bowl days and that phenomenon is more than just statistical variance. Unlike in regular season games, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a championship victory tend to maintain their high intensity level. Respect of the opposition and the fear of the brass ring slipping off their finger encourage the dominant team to increase the margin of victory. At the same time the spirits of the trailing team diminish as their hopes of a championship are dashed. In Championship games and Super Bowls over the years the trailing team has also proven more likely than normal to use desperate measures to try to get themselves back in the game, which more often than not makes matters worse. However, most of the blowouts in Super Bowl history were in games in which the favored team truly was the dominant team heading into the game and there have been a number of blowout wins by the underdog too.

Those of you that have been with me for many years may remember that I often covert my actual fair line (based on normal circumstances) into a Super Bowl line that is based on the fact that Championship games tend to become blowouts. Each year I calculate an equation to predict a likely Super Bowl margin of victory based on what the line on each Super Bowl game would have been in normal circumstances. I use the mathematically fair line for all Super Bowls since 1987 (when I started keeping my math projections on the game) and I use the actual pointspread for all Super Bowls from the AFL-NFL merger in Super Bowl 4 through Super Bowl 21 in 1987. The equation I come up with certainly suggests that teams that are clearly better should certainly be favored by more than they would be favored by under normal circumstances. For instance, a team that would be favored by 7 points under non-Super Bowl circumstances should be a 13 point favorite in the Super Bowl based on the equation that takes into account the tendency for blowouts in the Super Bowl. Using that same equation, a team that should be favored by 4.2 points in a normal game, as my math suggests Indy should be favored by this year, actually deserves to be a 5.6 point favorite in the Super Bowl. If Colts by 5.6 points is actually a realistic Super Bowl spread for this game then Chicago would have a 53.4% chance of covering at +6½ points and a 56.7% chance of covering at +7 points.

The tendency for blowouts in the Super Bowl has subsided in recent years and underdogs covered the pointspread in the Super Bowl for 4 consecutive years until last season when the Seahawks were robbed by the officials and failed to cover against the Steelers. Ive had success in recent years going with the underdog in the Super Bowl based on the line value and the Bears are certainly the way to go in this game given the inflated line. Remember, my math model prediction of Colts by 4.2 points was assuming that the Colts defensive improvement was actually real when it could be nothing more than random variance. Chicago out-scored their opponents this season by 11.1 points playing a schedule that 2.2 points worse than average (so the Bears were 8.9 points better than average in point differential). The Colts outscored their foes by only 5.0 points against a schedule of teams that is 2.7 points better than average (so they are 7.7 points better than average using point differentials). So, a case can be made that the Bears should be favored in this game. Chicago is also 15-3 while Indianapolis enters this game with a 15-4 record, and teams with a better win-loss record are 22-6-1 ATS as underdogs in the post-season since 1980, including 4-0-1 ATS in the Super Bowl (those teams are 19-10 straight up too).

Chicago has at least a 56.7% chance of covering at +7 points (higher if the Colts defense isnt really improved) and Ill take Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points at -1.15 odds or better. Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +7 at -1.20 and a regular opinion at +7 -1.25 or higher or +6½ points.

Over/Under
My math model projected total score on this game is 43 points assuming the Colts defense is indeed improved, and 45 points if it is not, but Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring, especially when the teams had an extra week off to game plan. Since 1981 there have been 7 Super Bowls that were played the week following the conference championship games and those 7 games averaged 43.1 points while the 19 Super Bowls since 1981 in which the game was played two weeks after the championship games averaged 53.3 points. I ran a correlation between my math model predictions and the actual totals and a total of 43 points results in a Super Bowl total of 48½ points, which is very close to the current over/under of 48 points (so I have no opinion on the total).

Propositions
Most of the propositions are not worth even looking at but I can use my math model projections to calculate some yardage totals for the key players. Here are my projections for the player stats with the actual consensus line in parenthesis.

Manning 265 gross passing yards (actual over/under is about 267 yards)
Addai 63 ½ rushing yards (62 yards)
Harrison 76 ½ receiving yards (77 yards)
Wayne 74 receiving yards (76 yards)
Clark 40 receiving yards (50 yards)
Grossman 189 passing yards (212 ½ yards)
Jones 75 ½ rushing yards (75 ½ yards)
Benson 40 ½ rushing yards (49 yards)
Berrian 65 ½ receiving yards (69 ½ yards)


I will consider Grossman Under in passing yards as a Strong Opinion and will lean with Clark under and Benson under.

Math Model
The chance to cover listed in the math model below is based on the historical accuracy of my math model, but in this case the mathematical chance for Chicago to cover is actually 56.7% at +7 and 53.4% at +6 1/2 points.

Thanks for posting!

Very informative.....Makes me feel even better taking the bears +7 two weeks ago.

So finer and dr bob are on bears and lang is on colts.....

i like the bears but damit finer! wish lang and finer would switch...

Thank you for posting this information

so a thread asking about this so, bump