I was looking into previous superbowls and previous lines in them and there were 7 times in SB history that the line was -7.

2005 NE -7
2004 NE -7
2000 STL -7
1992 Wash -7
1991 Buffalo -7
1989 SF -7
1976 Pittsburgh -7

In those SB's, favorites 6-1 SU (only Buffalo lost) but only
1-5-1 ATS.

-6 or -6.5
4 times in SB history, each time the favorite won SU and ATS.

-7.5 through -10
2 times in SB history, each time the favorite won SU and ATS.

Looks like if it stays at -7, SB history is leaning towards CHI to cover but Indy to win outright.

Overall in SB history the favorite is 21-17-2 ATS ( I did this manually, and almost positive it's right), since 1996 the favorite is 3-6-2 ATS.

Again, I really like CHI in this game, based on the information I posted on my other thread....

Since 1985, no team less than 8th in reg. season scoring defense (points allowed) has won a SB.

In 2006, Scoring defense...
3. CHI
23. Indy

I even went back further to 1972, Superbowl VII, (unfortunately I couldn't find defensive team stats before that) and the highest scoring defense that won a SB was the Oakland Raiders in 1984 , they were 13th in scoring defense. (points allowed)

Just throwing some stuff out there. All opinions welcome.

Thanks for the data. Great post.

Great info...Thanks Shade.

I like the Bears for the SB, against the spread, and a small ML investment. It is still 2 weeks away, so things could change, but that is the way I am leaning at this point also.

By the way......I remember a certain Superbowl that was played in Feb. of 2002, where the underdog of 14 points won straight up......Just trying to remember who that could have been.......

Thanks MikeB-

Oh...I remember, it's the same team that blew an 18 point lead last night ....BASTARDS!!!

We can't complain, 3 SB's in 6 years is something to be proud about! .......and to think, 2 first round picks in 2007, a fantastic front office, a hall of fame coach and QB, only good things to look forward too. You can't win them all. As long as they're competitive year after year, I'll take it.

People around the country who die to have a team like ours. No disrespect to anyone.

If you're looking for SB history......regarding lines....
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/superbowl/history/

Historical Team statistics....
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

good info shade, i thought the line was pretty high myself

Yeah...I don't know what people are doing with this, but if you are able to, you might want to think about hitting the dog pretty soon.

My reasoning is that right now everybody is all over the Colts with thier "David and Goliath" deal yesterday, and for the next week all of the talk about the second coming of Christ (Peyton), but I feel that some smart money might actually hit the Bears early, and I see the spread and of course the ML dropping.

It's funny that you're saying that because I was thinking the same thing.

Isn't Indy -250 on the ML a little low? Shouldn't that be in the -280 to -300 range?

I know that -6, is usually around -270 on the ML.

-7 should be -330

You are talking about points for and points against in
regular season..or are u talking scoring defense ? You have
scoring defense up there, as there is a differance.

chicagos defense was pretty damn good if u ask me anything. I think they win this outright, althought id like to see payton win one, i dont think he will this year

Every year the public bets on their team to win. Favorite by the points and dog on the money line. The books know this and shade money line on the dog. They love to have this action so if the game falls in the middle they win everything. What ever wise guys bet is not enough to put a dent in the public money on this game. If the number has no value the wise guys don't even play.

subject1

playtowin-sorry, I keep f'n the wording, it's total points allowed.

TDBabe- thanks for posting that!

Yap- I agree, I think they win outright.

subject1- thanks for the info! So, are you saying the ML on CHI is not worth the play?

Shade- The moneyline on the dog usually will not have any value this is not saying that the dog won't win. If you like the favorite you may see this number go to -200 or less by game time in Vegas.

Thanks subject1.

I really like Chicago in this game. All my tends are leaning that way. Chicago's defense is too good to lose by more than 7, and their special teams alone give them a huge advantage.

If Rex starts off hot, they should win this game outright.

Peyton won his SB against the Pats.

The Colts are in the perfect letdown position here. The only thing that worries me is that it is a bye week, and they may get some of that out of thier system, but I still see a letdown.

Just my humble opinion though.

Guess who is on the cover of SI this week?......

PEY-PEY

Like CHI even more now.

chicago +7.5 (bought hook) 6,000 to win 5,000
Now im playing the waiting game. Hopefully it comes down to -6.5 so i can get at 5,500 to win 5,000.

I'll gladly risk the 500 or 1,000 for a chance to win 10,000 with small risk.

55% on bears as of 6:00 1/24(sports insights)

I hit the middle with saint louis vs. tennessee for 10,000 with only 500 at risk a few years back.

BOL DJ

Then I hope it lands on 7 for you my friend and you cash in!

That was a nice hit with STLvs Tenn!

On my way to Ashland last night and drove by M.D. Didn't stop in because you mentioned that you're not there past 3pm.

Going back to 1985, the teams that finished with a better total defense during the regular season (points allowed) are

14-6-2 against the spread in the SB.

If we breakdown the -7 superbowls even further, just remember that in those SB's, favorites 6-1 SU (only Buffalo lost) but only
1-5-1 ATS.


(points allowed during reg season)
2005 NE (2) -7 vs. Philly (3) Score NE 24-21
2004 NE (1) -7 vs. Car (10) Score NE 32-29
2000 STL (4)-7 vs. Tenn (15) Score Stl 23-16
1992 Wash (2) -7 vs. Buff (19) Score Wash 37-24
1991 Buffalo (6) -7 vs. NYG (1) *****Score NYG 20-19
1989 SF (8) -7 vs. Cinn (17) Score SF 20-16
1976 Pittsburgh (2) -7 vs. Dallas (9) Score Pitts 21-17

The only -7 favorite that lost was Buffalo who had a worse points allowed than the NYG.

The only -7 favorite that covered ATS is WASH, who had a considerable diffference, #2 vs.#19, in points allowed.

To me this game is shaping up just like the 1991 SB Buff vs NYG.