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CrackedAces
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 639

U.H.T.R.O.'s 5 Year Statistics

For those that do not know, UHTRO = Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent.

Well, the 5 year totals are finally complete! And let me tell you, this was A LOT tougher to do than I thought it would be. Sooooo time consuming. Very glad its over. One angle definately sticks out, and it is probably a given. Big thanks to Pimpin Drew again for his help. It is much appreciated! Highrize, thanks for offering to do the last year. I ended up with time and finished it off to get it out there for everyone. Thank you for offering though.

I hope you enjoy!

________________________________________
__________
UHT's as favorites:

2001-02 Season 21-19-2
2002-03 Season 22-15-1
2003-04 Season 15-8-2
2004-05 Season 18-12-0
2005-06 Season 15-24-0
Current Season 15-8-1

Overall 106-86-6 55.2%
________________________________________
__________
UHT's as 0-3.5 Dogs:

2001-02 Season 24-18-1
2002-03 Season 22-30-0
2003-04 Season 20-16-2
2004-05 Season 17-20-1
2005-06 Season 30-26-0
Current Season 20-11-1

Overall 133-121-5 52.4%
________________________________________
__________
UHT's as 4-9.5 Dogs:

2001-02 Season 32-40-2
2002-03 Season 40-28-1
2003-04 Season 38-36-1
2004-05 Season 43-47-1
2005-06 Season 34-30-1
Current Season 17-20-0

Overall 204-201-6 50.4%
________________________________________
__________
UHT's as 10+ Dogs:

2001-02 Season 18-13-1
2002-03 Season 16-16-2
2003-04 Season 19-20-1
2004-05 Season 21-28-1
2005-06 Season 19-18-1
Current Season 11-7-1

Overall 104-102-7 50.5%
________________________________________
__________

My thoughts on this:

Each angle seems to have one season that pulls the percentages down severely. While I am not going to say to just discard that season (that would defeat the purpose to the research), it is something to consider. Take the UHT as Favs for example. 55%over 5 years is nice, but take out last season and that angle jumps up near 60% ! Also, with each of the other angles being close to 50%, it leads me to believe that this seasons numbers will revert to that as well. Do we start to play the ranked teams?? That could be a whole other discussion.

Take the numbers for what they are. Just to jump this question ahead of time, I do not have conference totals for past years yet. I am probably going to take some time off from researching this for a bit, and then look that stuff up at a later date.

Let me know your thoughts on this ! Thanks !

Old Post 02-03-07 07:22 PM
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hightimes
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 6828

Cracked and Drew.

very impressive you guys. if karma exists in the gambling world you and Drew should have yourselves one fine year in regards to gambling. Although the numbers seem to adjust themselves towards the 50% tile I believe this system is strong in any given year and any given situation. What I take away from your research is to play the unranked favorite and the small home dog. Stay away from the middle range dog. And play the large home dog. Great work you guys...........................................................Combining this with other handicapping methods should result in a high winning percentage.

Old Post 02-03-07 07:34 PM
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tendog


Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 407

thanks for all the work you and others are doing on this. the results are baffling and disappointing, but better to know this than follow down a dangerous path. someone posted a few weeks ago that this kind of angle quits working so well about now in the season. by feb. the linemaker has a very good handle on how these teams match up. did you notice diminishing results later in the season? also, the unranked home favorite angle is becoming very well known, and eventually is possibly losing its effectiveness.

Old Post 02-03-07 07:36 PM
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CrackedAces
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 639

Hightimes, your thoughts on what to play are exactly what I have been posting in my daily UHTRO threads. The middle dogs have been Play AGAINST's.

Thank you for your thoughts on this. Hopefully the gods are kind : - )

Old Post 02-03-07 07:38 PM
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hightimes
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 6828

tendog

I think the idea is to just choose your spots. Of course you can't blindly take unranked favorites but in certain situations its a perfect situation for vegas and ourselves to cash in. We just have to be able to pick the right time to unload.

Old Post 02-03-07 07:41 PM
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AngryBeavers
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1555

Thanks

for all of the hard work and sharing your results

Old Post 02-03-07 08:20 PM
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CrackedAces
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 639

afternoon bump

.

Old Post 02-04-07 12:44 AM
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purple


Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 143

Cracked

Appreciate the work, I have done analysis like this before and know how time consuming it all is. Someone will figure out that a database with rankings would be a good idea and we would pay money for it. I would be interested in breaking down the games by days, as in the NBA there are differences in how systems work according to the day, and whether of not the game is actually played during the day or night. Weekend games are different from week day games......it would be an interesting study.

Old Post 02-04-07 01:52 AM
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Strizzles
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 2959

aces thanks for the hard work on this. It is a definite help to post these and add them as a handicapping tool. Imprtant to not base play on just one criteria. They have hit nicely today! gl

Old Post 02-04-07 02:52 AM
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jrg
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 1095

Thanks for putting the time into researching and posting.

Old Post 02-04-07 02:54 AM
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Garrrdock
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1598

Great Work...this is much appreciated.

I'm done wasting $$$ betting against highly ranked teams on the road giving or getting 1-3 pts against a clearly inferior team. I think Ohio St. today illustrates those teams clearly win/cover a majority of the time and the % are evened out by teams like Iowa beating Indiana today and GT beating clemson or Virginia beating Duke the other night as a last example. Anyone else agree with that?

Old Post 02-04-07 03:15 AM
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