The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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duckman
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2703
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Next week's Oregon-Oregon St. Civil War
Actually quite simple. This game has been Game of the Year (along with a number of other games) and Oregon has been favored by anywhere from -1 to -7 as the year has progressed.
But, come tomorrow night, I'm fairly certain Oregon St. will open -3 or-4 and they will cover this line. Oregon has 2 capable qbs, yet the coach is stubbornly sticking with the one (Dennis Dixon) even as the turnovers mount. That plus the lack of ANYONE who can catch a punt makes for a gift 10-14 points next week. 6 more turnovers today has reduced the once confident offensive machine (last in turnover margin in Pac-10, close to last of the 119 teams in the country) along with a D-line that is like a sieve makes for a easy call next week.
Duckman
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11-19-06 01:08 AM |
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duckman
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2703
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bump
A little more analogy, but running along the same theme. 4 years ago, Oregon running along smoothly 7-2, then crashed by finishing 7-6 with loss in Civil War @ Corvallis. Ditto, 2004, with 5-3 record finishing 5-6, staying home for the holidays (only non-winning season in Coach Bellotti's 12-year tenure). The scores in those 2 games were 45-24, 49-21 Oregon St.
Oregon comes limping in again with qb Dennis Dixon throwing 1 td, 8 ints last 5 games. Until this week, Coach was sticking with Dixon no matter what. Last info received was a game-time decision between Dixon and Leaf (yeah, Ryan's younger brother). Biggest problem is TURNOVERS. Had 5 games this year with 3,4,4,4,and 6 turnovers and only won one game vs. Oklahoma. 2nd biggest problem is run defense which is like a sieve giving up over 150 yards per game. 3rd problem is no one on the team is capable of catching a punt right now as nearly a half-dozen have been tried for punt return duty.
On the other side of the ball, following a 2-3 start, Oregon St. has gone 5-1 which includes win over USC. Qb Matt Moore who has been a turnover machine in the past has now gone 4 games without an INT. RB Bernard has recovered from ankle injury and looks be in top form. OSU has been strong against the run, with pass D a little suspect.
Forecast is for showers with breezy winds. Game is on National TV on FSN
Play on OSU -150
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11-24-06 06:30 PM |
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duckman
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2703
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My bad
Left out one stat. Home team has won last 9 in series dating to Oregon victory in Corvallis in 1996.
By the way, I see a new poster in the forum, AngryBeavers. Maybe this person would care to weigh in on this subject.
Duckman
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11-24-06 07:41 PM |
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