Well it's a little late but here's what I've had some success with. I needed something quick and simple since I only have 45 minutes to do all sports with a 7pm start time during the week. This is what I came up with. PROS ONLY

In the simulator divide the estimated straight up wins of each team by 250. This gives the win probability. Find the Break Even % for each teams probability. Get the line and Break % even for each team. Comapre them and if you have a 6% or better advantage it's a play. Money line or spread play would be a matter of choice.

Example: Orlando at Detroit 4/23/03
Orl Prob =65% -165 BE Line +220 =31% BE
This means I expect Orlando to win this game 65% of the time if the game were played over and over 250 times. I would need odds of -165 to break even if I played it every time. I can buy it for +220 where I only need to hit 31% of the time to break even. My advantage is 34% Since the wrong team is favored I put 1/2 unit on the ML and 1 unit with 6.5 points.

In the Dallas game
Portland Prob =38% +165 BE Line +230 30% BE
Since Since Dallas is correctly favored I'll pass on the ML and just take 6pts -105.

The 76er game shows no advantage

Over 110 games ATS showed a small profit at 53.6% and ML plays did a little better winning 3.2 units at about .03 ROI. Hit 60% until last 5 days. I think a lot of meaningless games at end of season (last week of March) may have skewed the results a little. Also have to check how many road favorites I was on.

Simple and quick though. I can do 12 games faster than it takes me to shop lines and get the bets in

thoughts?

It would be intersting to add the stars to that approach and see what results you get. I was trying something similar but actually fading the fox line, going with the lv line overlay. In effect the oppoisite of what you are doing.

I don't use the stars except to occasionally fade them.

Bad results or not enough time?

Not a trend player especially with over 2 qualifiers. Most of the trends here are that way and also too small sample size. I do read one if I notice 4 or 5 stars.