as DevilDog had said in the other thread.....Horseracing is the hardest sport.... to handicap but it can be done, and I totally agree. I also agree with what he said about successful handicapper's not willing to share their systems. As far as forgetting longshot's, that's where I disagree. I've a number of proven angles that I will be willing to share when I get the time that has made me BIG $$$. But the real reason for posting this message is I'd like to share a little something that I have found that will make you money at the Throughbred's, and it's based on the odd's. Over the year's and I mean many year's, I've read and studied as much as I could about Horse Racing. Of all the books I've read, and as I write this I look over my shoulder to a library of about 30-40 books, the one that I found to be the best and simpliest is a book by William L. Scott "How Will Your Horse Run Today" You can pick up the Racing Form just as you walk into the track look at who is the Fav, and get to work. After you master the 3 chapter's, and they are simple to master. (there's 4 but I did well enough with the 3) you're on your way. I actually did a real betting study using his method, and my goal was to clear $20 a day.....yes $20 a day, after expenses. Doesn't seem like much, but like I said I was doing an actual betting study, and my wager's for this study was $2 Win and $8 Place. I was hoping to do this for 20 straight. I only completed 14 day's, but when I finished the 14 day's, I was averaging $33 a day profit. And this is on horses who are 1st/2nd/3rd betting choices. I still use it when capping a race if I don't have any angles going in that race, or if I'm with friends that are just at the track for the day, I'll use his method as I know that a big % of the horses will be there. He has 3 books out and another real good one is "Total Victory At The Track", and it is REALLY GOOD, but alot of work. But myself, I really enjoy the angles I have acquired over the year's, and if people are interested will post some when time allows. Before I forget, another good thing is the price of the book.....mine cost $13.95, a real bargain. Check it out, and GL

Thanks for passing on the info on the tools.

Have that one. Used it for awhile. I think I have every book and have tried every systems to beat the horses over the last 10 years and have not been able to crack the nut. A few good winning streaks, a few very good hits but in the long run I always give it back. Gotta be the toughest sport on earth to win at. You have about 8-9 horses in every race to choose from and gotta pick the winner. Tough game but I still throw a few that way every now and then.

I've had that book for a while. Which three chapters are you referring to specifically? The most I got out of the book was about the five furlong workouts.

It sounds like part of that system is sorta like a system I still use every once in a while. My system uses the top four horses when I am actually handicapping and the third favorite bet across the board with the most money being bet to show.

This system makes money but you have to be REALLY REALLY consistent. At most tracks you can't lay thousands across because you will effect the odds. But at the big tracks you can do this.

The reason horseracing is so difficult is because people actually know so little about racing. Most people know NOTHING about what to look for in a horse that is ready to run. Most people have NO idea why a horse ran bad one time and then ran their eyeballs out the next time. That is when good info. from the inside comes in but that is hard to gather.

A good example of this is a horse, a filly, I was assistant trainer for. She was heading into the 3/8 pole sitting second ready to pounce and then suddenly shut it down. Damn near like she hit a brick wall. The jock comes back and says, "Damn, I thought going to the 3/8's we had this one won but she just stopped".

We thought maybe she bled but when we got back to the barn we had her scoped and found no blood. Well about an hour later her damn left eye was swollen shut. She had been hit, most likely, by a dirt clod. Since it probably hurt like hell and affected her vision she just stopped.

There was not a sole in the world except for me, the trainer, the jockey, and the owner that knew this. Do you think we were going to tell anyone!! Hell no.

Next time out, at 22-1, she airmailed the group and we made a VERY nice profit in the race. I had her at 50 across and on top of a $2400 exacta.

That is the type of thing that happens at the racetrack all the time. No hanky panky. Just things that happen to a horse that is not reported in the form and only certain people know about.

Like a horse losing a shoe out of the gate or grabbing a quarter, or swallowing their tongue. These things happen and when they are corrected the horse shows a huge improvement.

Systems do work but they need time and you need patience to allow them to overcome the above mentioned things that can happen.

Dog

The only way a "lay" person can have the slightest chance of picking up something from behind the curtain is sometimes by the jockey movement. A jock getting off or on a ride and why? Possibly off a horse they have had success on, only to jump to another in the same race.

True,

But many times a jock gets off a horse he actually likes to get on a lesser horse because he is committed to that horse and his agent doesn't want to p#$# off the trainer, whom he rides a lot of other good horses for.

The problem with handicapping horses is that there is SO much information that pertains directly to the outcome that cannot be reported. There is no way to accurately obtain this info..

When I was an assistant trainer I worked for a guy that was very finicky about riders. We had a couple of VERY nice horses and he basically made it clear that to ride those horses you had to ride the crap horses also!! These jocks lost a number of races just so they could ride the big boys and girls.

This is why it is important to pay attention to jock, trainer, and owner pairings. Certain pairings are like gold and you eventually figure out why certain jocks do certain things.

Bottom line is that MOST races are won by the top four favorites. If you just understand that you'll instantly become a better player of the horses. That is not to say you cannot pick longshots. You can, but they should be a SMALL part of you wagering.

Dog

I should have said Chapter 6 page 125.....The Third Form Factor Part 2 is what I eliminated. The other's used, with Chapter 9 and on have produced many winner's from the top three fav's in a race.

has made me $$$. What I look for is in a Maiden Special Weight race, and the horse has recorded all of it's workouts at another track other than today's. The track that the horse is shipping from must have a lower purse structure. Even better is if the track the horse is shipping from is still offering Live racing. A throughbred can only break it's maiden once, so when it's ready and the owner/trainer know when it's ready, they'll ship to a track with the highest possible purse. I've cashed many big tickets with this simple angle.

Nice post Jake. I will keep it in mind when I get off the wagon. I put a self imposed no bet clause unless I own part of a horse on myself after having a terrible and time consuming first few months of this year.

As far as jockey movement. I see it as a pretty important deal but not completely important. I have seen a top jock switch to one horse just to have his old horse win. I agree it has to do with keeping trainers happy most times. I did have Jason Lumpkins beat a horse we own 3 times in a row on different horses. Then we got him to ride her and she broke her maiden. That was at Turfway where Lumpkins was tearing the track apart though. That means alot. He would win 1 race or 0 races one day and you could make a profit by just betting all his mounts the very next day all meet long because the next day he would always win at least 3 and many times 4-5. He was pounded at the windows most times but occasionaly you could catch a moderate shot with him.

this angle I'm talking about made me look like I really knew what I was doing. I ran into a friend of mine at the track one day last fall, and we were catching up on small talk about how thing's were going etc. Then talk turned to the races, and he asked my opinion on this race at Belmont. I didn't even look at that race yet, or had considered looking at it. But as soon as I looked at the race he was talking about, this horse stuck out as one of my angles (Doubtful Diva, if I remember correctly)The horse was shipping in from Finger Lakes where the purse was a measely $6000 app. to Belmont where it was $45000 app. The horse had been working out for 5-6 months at Finger Lakes, but as an added bonus had all the following..... was an Owner/Breeder (which is another angle), 1st Lasix, and the trainer had a high % with 2 year olds and 1st time starters. Doubtful Diva won paying $80 something/20 something/and I didn't have a show wager so I don't remember the show price. Because of the high odd's my buddy didn't bet the horse, but I ended up thanking him for bringing my attention to the race, as I had bet Win/Place without hesitation. I've cashed many tickets with this angle, but the biggest was Beau's Fantasy who had been working out at Calder from Aug to Dec. He shipped in from a 20,000 something track to Aqueduct $40,000 something in Dec. Once again, as an added bonus, Owner/Breeder, which I love, and 1st Lasix. The fact of an apprentice jock aboard was also a bonus in my mind, as it throws most bettor's off.....Beau's Fantasy $141.60/69.40/show?. I'll never forget those payoff's. The angle isn't 100%, but what is. But the double digit payoff's are worth the wait. The way I look at this angle is if they think their horse is ready, and are entering where it can't be claimed, and shipping, I'm going with them. If it were to be entered in a claiming race that's a different story. You have to think like an horseman, as money is the name of the game. GL with your horses.

Thanks a lot for the info. I actually did read that book many years back and made note cards and brought them to the track with me based on the book. If I remember correctly, you use the
0, +, U method for four different factors (form, last race run, last 1/4 of last race, and something else I can't remember). I do think the best method of handicapping horse races is following the tote board....I believe smart money is more important in horse racing than any competitive sport. Thanks again for the reply...

The book that has made me money over many years was called "the million dollar move" (forgot who wrote it). Basically it was any horse who ran in the last 2 weeks and in his last race was near or at the lead at the 1/2 way point, then dropped back for the next to last call, but either gained ground or didn't lose any in the stretch (pace/time of stretch considered). Theory being - horse held back then let loose again to see if could compete in the stretch. Some excellent prices on this. Very selective (not very many plays per week/month) but I will still look for this if I'm at the track, even if it is against my ragosin play, I will cover myself.

This is about the trotters, I don't know if it applies to thoroughbreds.

My one friend has owned some in the past, now we will go to the track every now and then if one of his nephews (guess it's in the genes) has a horse running. The pools at many of these tracks is much smaller. When one of these owners/trainers makes a move of only 1-5 dimes, depending on the track, it's is extremely apparent on the board. It usually is made late. You see a 10 or 12 to 1 horse drop to 3-1 or less in half a second just before post.

This angle has been my one successful angle in harness and thoroughbred...
Track the odds beginning with about 12-13 minutes until post. Two kinds of movements signify "smart" money

1) A horse that looks awful in the program opens at low odds. Odds go up, then sharply go down over 1-2 minutes. Then they creep back up to where they should be (i.e. 15-15-16-15-7-10-12-15)

2) With about 7-8 min to post, the following movement occurs
(10-9-8-7-8-9-10-12).

I have hit some large winners with this method. Works better in thoroughbred, which sucks for me since the Meadowlands is mainly harness...

Blue, many t-bred simulcasting at the med. Trackside dining has your own little tv with different channels for eack track.

When the track is closed between meets I will bet the simulcasting....but there is just something more fulfilling and fun about betting live horses than simulcasting. But, you've got a point, if it's about making money then I should play the throughbred simulcasts with this method....

I used to use the tote board quite abit when I was playing the Standbred's. I used Milt Gainer's Method, taken from his throughbred book "The Tote Board is Alive and Well".....and picked up quite a few nice prices. I also found that by recording who the owner/trainer etc were, that it would help or come into play at a later date. Another method, that was given to me by a friend was, he divide's the show pool into the win pool, and if the win pool is 5 times as much as the show he would include that horse in his triactor bet's as a place or show horse with his selection. Not being much of a handicapper, he has found his way of playing the horses, having fun, and cashing some nice tickets. GL

you mention the Ragozin Sheets, do you recall the other sheets put out by ?.

maybe graphs. Thanks