The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AussieRules
Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 396
|
Weekend Soccer
Guys,
Not much that fits my plays this weekend. Only one from:
System 2 (29+% System, $10771).
Irish Prem. : Bohemians to Win, $253 @ $3.75 (although the odds have moved out a little since I placed, they are up at $4.00+ now, equates to about $275-280 by overlays)
I think this game is tighter than the odds show ($1.90-$3.20-$4.00). Cork is definitely the class of the league with a stellar 10-4-1 (W-D-L) record overall, the Bohemians had a tough time in the InterToto, but have been pretty good in league play with a 6-4-3 overall record. Of interest is the recent form, with both teams going 5-1-0 in their last 6, indicating two very in form teams going head-to-head - in actual fact, the Bohemians are slightly more in form as they have been beating slightly better teams. A quick comparison of home and away records has Cork 3-3-1 at home and the Bohemians 2-3-1 on the road, not a lot of difference. The only stat that I really see hanging in Cork's favour is the GF:GA, 27:8 vs. 15:14 overall, but their recent goal tallies have been pretty close (13:2 vs. 15:5) and the home:away goal tallies are mildly in Cork's favour (8:3 vs. 7:7).
Bohemians are 5-2-3 over the last 3 seasons against Cork in league play, including 2-1-1 at Cork.
Overall Cork might have the edge this season, but the edge is not $3.90 on the Bohemians! Which is why I think this is a real value bet. I believe the Bohemians should be priced around $2.90-$3.00
If you are not looking for a value bet then I would say that a side bet on the "X2" (draw & Bohemians win) may not be a bad way to go if you want a slightly safer play (about a 60% chance). I would say that is worth a 1 or 2 unit play @ about $1.70-1.80, as a draw would not be an unreasonable outcome to this game.
However, I will be playing (and recording) for a Bohemians win only :)
Good luck.
Oz
|
07-08-05 04:20 AM |
|
|
| |
|
|