two rookie pitchers - baker and santana. santana has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 3 starts. baker is making his first major league start. these two lineups aren't the greatest in the world but theyre adequate. seems like an obvious over 9 i.m.o. thoughts?

dcinvestor:

Here is a Super Situation from the FoxSheets which supports your over play.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ANAHEIM) - starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games.
(38-15 since 1997.) (71.7%, +22.2 units. Rating = 2*)

In other words, both the starting pitcher and the bullpen have been shelled recently. The FoxSheet points out that these teams are predominantly under teams in general. Most of the qualifying team trends favor the under. However, you might have identified a good over spot here.