2-2

8000/10000/30000

Taking the Cardinals tonight -230

2300/1000

I think this Stat Forum is a little boring lately...

So, I will start a little friendly fight with the graet GP...

He wants to get to 30,000 dlls...

Ummm...

Ok let's do this...

My first pick is :

Chicago White Sox -120 ( not -5000 or -3000 like the plays of the great GP )
* Garcia ( CHW ) vs Maroth ( DET )

Let's bet 1,200 dlls ( of 10,000 ) to win 1,000

Enjoy...

And let's this little constest begin...

My Record so far : 0 - 0 ; +10,000 dlls ( 1,200 pending )

This is going to be like Mantle and Maris in a home run contest. Good luck to each of you. BTW-GP, I have the Cards as my morning pick at JD's. Maybe I'll just bump up the sheckles on this one a tad. Good luck to both of you.

Nice to see the “friendly” competition back in the Den. I won’t hold my breath to see how long it lasts...as I’m sure there will be those that can’t restrain themselves...It is inevitable that history will repeat itself eventually in fine form in one of these GP threads...

I wish all of you good luck in your quest...Anyone who can triple their bankroll (regardless of the odds you play) is a pretty damn good capper.

And if memory serves, it was that low odds prop that took the big dent out of GPs bankroll to start this thing, so if he climbs his way to $30,000 by betting big chalk, does it really matter??? Yesterday, 2 big chalk (Ariz and Minny) lost, so I’m sure he doesn’t just pick these blindly. There is an art to betting big faves as many on here have shown with great success.

Rags,
Cards do look good in this series against the travel-challenged Rockies...tomorrow looks juicy too with Carpenter vs. Kennedy...GL with your play!!!

THIS is going to be good!

Thanks for the support and sorry for the others...........LOL

LOL

Ill enjoy this contest.

4600 to win 2000

Final sOk let's do this...

My first pick is :

Chicago White Sox -120 ( not -5000 or -3000 like the plays of the great GP )
* Garcia ( CHW ) vs Maroth ( DET )

Let's bet 1,200 dlls ( of 10,000 ) to win 1,000

Enjoy...

And let's this little constest begin...

My Record so far : 0 - 0 ; +10,000 dlls ( 1,200 pending )

White Sox 6 - Tigers 1 ( Won )

Friday13th Record: 1 - 0 +11,000 dlls

Later another pick...

Enjoy...

Today Second pick is :

Houston Astros -105 ( not -5000 or -3000 like the plays of the great GP )
* Backe ( HOU ) vs Milton ( CIN )

Let's bet 1,050 dlls ( of 11,000 ) to win 1,000 dlls

Enjoy...

My Record so far : 1 - 0 ; +11,000 dlls ( 1,050 pending )

Looks like the Ole GP has lost that magic touch...................

Oh well, Ill have to take a position in the back of the field and hope for a Stretch-Kick in the lane coming home.........

Oh well.

People may not know this about Friday 13th. He is a big time competitor. Even in the arcade at JustDaves, he holds 12 titles, and the gold trophy!!!!!

He's slam dunking the MLB Dog Tournament.

And, now here, in this "race to 30K" I make him a large favorite to not only get there, but to win.

Sorry, GP, I like you. You are a fun guy, but I don't see you getting back to 10,000.

At JustDaves, we have been working on determining overlays to find value in Bases. STL at -230 did not have a positive overlay.

One way to illustrate this, take STL's winning percent at 0.636, and add Rockies losing percent 0.658, and average this = 0.647

Put 0.647 as your winning percentage in the simulator. And, use a 10,000 bankroll, and a line of -230. Make your wagers 20% of your bankroll (what I'm seeing with your play). Now run this simulator 200 times.

First of all, running my Fractional Kelly calculator (FK v2.1), will help you determine that your Overlay is -7.48%. This means that the books will ultimately enjoy the contents of your bankroll. Might even send you a Christmas Card.

The results of playing this scenario 200 times are ugly...

Average Profit -$7,939.86

Chance of profit 8.6%

Chance of bankruptcy 90.9%

Chance of building your bankroll to $30,000 = 2.2%


I wouldn't normally point this out so publically, but I know that a lot of inexperienced eyes are looking at your plays, and I don't want to see them get burned. I wish you better luck and better decisions in the future my friend.


JD

"If there's not a positive overlay, there's no play"

BTW, with this winning percentage, you begin to see positive overlay at -185.

Anything higher = Negative overlay
<185 = Positive overlay

I don't think you'll see a line this low in this series. The National League Champions are obviously a huge public play, and I don't recall them having a Positive overlay this year.

Hope this helps.

JD

Positive overlay = the percent advantage your play has over the bookie's line.

This is where shopping for the best line is so important. Better lines improve overlay, increasing your wager size when using the Kelly method.

Kelly method is arguably the safest (especially when using a fractional Kelly), and most profitable way to manage your bankroll. :)

Martingale, or also known as the "chase" method is too hard on your health. Many believe you ultimately lose using this method. I can't agrue with them. Especially when you consider the negative impact the stress has on your health.

"One way to illustrate this, take STL's winning percent at 0.636, and add Rockies losing percent 0.658, and average this = 0.647"

Considering that many teams are night & day home vs. away, what if instead you took:

- St. Louis HOME winning % of 0.641
- Col's AWAY losing % of 0.857

I didn't take Suppan either, but not because of the above analysis.

Just showing perhaps a more relevant way of looking at the numbers (another example: A's at home are night & day than A's on the road, and we're beginning to see that show up in the lines, -180 favs for those young A's pitchers).

Being a Contrarian, did your analysis of the Cardinals game make Colorado a play?

nntrader

Its funny you should bring the A's up. I found an interesting Supersituation involving the A's that raised an eyebrow in the JDF this morning...

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SEATTLE) - allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL).
(46-6 since 1997.) (88.5%, +33.9 units. Rating = 3*)

You have a good defensive team as a big underdog, winning 11.5% of the time, when matched with a team that has trouble scoring.

I just find this crooked result kind of odd. I think it may have something to do with recent momentum, driving in the runs, and driving up the line. Because without the momentum, you don't have this qualifying line.

This percentage may the numerical residual of momentum.

Very interesting IMO.

Either that or the fact that A's have are 18-4 L22 at home and staring pitching in June had < 3.00 ERA.

AWAY is a different story...

nntrader

I agree, there are more relevant ways of determining percent chance of winning. But, simply as an illustration, I used total games. There are advantages to using total games, in that you double the population, but clearly you sacrifice in the relevance department. Of course, I personally consider percentage of winning with starting pitcher, etc. as well. Point well taken.

RDTrains

I can run the Rockies for you and give you an overlay based on my overly simplistic illustration, but the relevance is clearly in question, and rightly so. The real trick is deciding on a precise winning percentage to use. That is something we are working on at JDF. We've analyzed situational powertrends and ranked them according to relevance. We have ball players, coaches, professional cappers, all of whome are working together to precipitate relevance to derive precise winning percentages.

As you become more precise in developing winning percentages, you can raise your Fractional Kelly to 0.5, 0.75 or even 1, a full Kelly.

We've found that during Interleague, our winning percentages were skewed. So we dropped to 0.25. Now that IL is over, we are up to 0.30, and slowly building bankroll. Using current percentage of Bankroll betting, ensures that we will never go bankrupt.

RD Trains

Colorado at +200 would have been a play, a very small one though. Calculated overlay 5.9%. Using a 0.30 fractional Kelly and a 10,000 bankroll, would have resulted in a bet on Colorado +200 of $88.50.

My FKv2.1 calculates this dollar figure.