another round this week
GL

Champions League returns this week for match day 3, which kicks off in Italy with a game between AC Milan and Club Brugge.

Milan failed to pick up a point in the competition through two games after losses to Liverpool and Bayern Leverkusen.

Meanwhile, the Belgian club secured a win over SK Sturm Graz following a defeat to Dortmund to sit mid-table in the new UCL format.

The San Siro has had some memorable moments in this tournament, and the home side will be desperate for a result here. So, we preview the fixture and give our best bet for the game between AC Milan and Club Brugge.

Yes, Brugge were able to get a shutout win in the club’s last Champions League game, but you also saw the same team struggle when stepping up in class against Dortmund.

The German side scored three goals, and it was a game that was played in Belgium. I don’t trust that the defense will be much better on the road in Italy.

Aston Villa vs. Bologna odds: Aston Villa -175, Bologna+450, Draw +320
Bologna aren't the team that finished fifth in Serie A last year, but they aren't significantly different either. Losing Motta, star striker Joshua Zirkzee and their best defender, Riccardo Calafiori, has really hurt, and the team is struggling under the new manager.

Vincenzo Italiano did a masterful job with Fiorentina in Europe, bringing them to back to back Europa Conference League finals, and his style of play isn’t a whole lot different than what Bologna were already doing. He wants his teams to build out of the back in a 3-2 or 4-2 shape and Bologna are really good at getting the ball into the final third, but the problem is they aren’t able to create a lot of high quality chances. Through eight matches, they are only averaging 0.08 npxG per shot, which is the fourth-lowest average in Serie A.

That was the same problem for Italiano at Fiorentina because they had the lowest xG per shot in Serie A, oftentimes settling for shots from outside the box. With that low npxG per shots, Bologna are only averaging 1.00 npxG per 90 minutes. In fact, in their three most difficult matches this season against Napoli, Atalanta and Liverpool they have only scored one goal and created 1.3 expected goals in those three matches.

Aston Villa are going to play their usual high line and are likely going to be the one to try and control the match being at home. Their build up actually hasn’t been that good as of late because in their previous three matches before the one against Fulham this weekend, they had failed to create over one expected goal.

Salzburg vs. Dinamo Zagreb odds: Salzburg -143, Dinamo Zagreb +333, Draw +310
I am not sure that Salzburg should be this big of a favorite because things haven’t been going to well under Pep Lijnders.

They’ve been dominated in their opening two Champions League matches by Sparta Prague and Brest, which were supposed to be two of their easier Champions League matchups. In those two matches they conceded seven goals and 4.5 expected goals and their biggest problem is they’ve been exploited in transition one too many times.

This is maybe one of the least talented Salzburg teams that we’ve seen in the Champions League in a long time. They only have a +0.75 xGD in the Austrian Bundesliga and have gotten hammered in their two biggest matches domestically by Rapid Wein and Sturm Graz. On top of that they have five attacking players injured right now, so this isn't the best spot for them.

Dinamo Zagreb typically dominate possession domestically in Croatia, but they’ve now had the experience of playing two games where they aren’t controlling a majority of the possession. They were pretty impressive against Monaco in their previous match, with both of their goals coming as a result of transition breaks, which bodes well for this match.

Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet once again in a huge Champions League clash at the Santiago Bernabéu.

It's been an interesting start to the season for Real Madrid, who came into it as the new Galaticos, but so far haven't really looked the part. They've drawn three different matches in La Liga and trail Barcelona in the table by three points. They even lost their second Champions League match on the road at Lille, which now means they better kick things into high gear for the remainder of the league phase if they want to finish inside the top eight.

Dortmund are at the top of the Champions League table after two match weeks, but it's not going to last long. They haven't been tested against elite competition and they've honestly been struggling against the teams they have faced. They were pretty good in the first half of that Champions League final against Real Madrid, but repeating that under a new manager on the road is another thing.

Real Madrid haven't been playing at the elite level that we all expected them to be at, but this is a really good match for them to flex their muscles.

The underlying numbers offensively have not been good in Spain. They have benefitted from five penalties, but so far they are only averaging 1.42 npxG per 90 minutes. That is because even though they have Kylian Mbappe, teams are sitting incredibly deep and compact on them and Real Madrid have no way to play through or any consistent aerial threats in the box. To be honest, they are a much better team when they are able concede possession to their opponent and play in transition, which is what they are going to be able to do in this game.

Real Madrid are an incredibly dangerous team, not because they have some revolutionary tactics, but because they possess more individual quality that any team in the world. Carlo Ancelotti is the perfect manager for this type of team because he sets them up perfectly to take advantage of that individual quality.

They are incredibly adaptive to the opponent that they are facing and in the Champions League final they decided to play very direct with a lot of long balls up to Jude Bellingham, who would often win the header and allow Vinicus Jr. and Rodrygo to win second balls and get into 1 v 1 situations against Dortmund's defenders.

Dortmund are trying to become a team that is able to control matches under Nuri Sahin, but so far their build up really hasn’t been that good. They are using a lot of different build up formations, but the biggest problem they run into is when teams win the ball off of them, they have too many guys committed forward, so teams have been able to just run at them in transition over and over again. In the Bundesliga, Dortmund are conceding 1.47 xG per 90 minutes. Mind you they have not faced Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig or Leverkusen yet. The best team they have faced was Stuttgart, who put five goals past them.

When Dortmund don’t have the ball they are trying to press high in a man to man fashion, but it’s been pretty ineffective. Stuttgart were consistently baiting them into pressing and were making quick line breaking passes right through Dortmund’s defense. Sahin also wants them to play a high defensive line, which is a death sentence facing Real Madrid with how good Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo are at making runs off the back line.

The reason Dortmund were so effective early in that Champions League final is because they were either consistently finding space in between Real Madrid's two defense lines with Julian Brandt and Jadon Sancho doing a fantastic job at creating chances and winning second balls. They also started dropping Emre Can into the defensive line to give them a +1 against Real Madrid through the first and second phase. However, as the match went along and Real Madrid stopped pressing and sat deeper, it became harder and harder for Dortmund to find space in the final third and create any sort of high quality chance.

Real Madrid have already faced a Bundesliga team in this competition, beating Vfb Stuttgart 3-1 after rebounding from an early onslaught. That is the same Vfb Stuttgart team that absolutely hammered Dortmund 5-1 and is the best team that Dortmund have seen so far this season.

The tactical battle will be interesting in this match. In that Champions League final Real Madrid tried to press Dortmund's build up early on, which forced them into a lot of direct long balls up to the striker. However, Real Madrid are not a good pressing team and as the match went along Dortmund made adjustments and were constantly getting overloads through the first couple of phases of build up.