The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Not having Joey Bosa against a mobile quarterback like Kyler Murray stings, but Los Angeles really should be able to win this game. The Chargers are third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.160) this year. They have been the best rushing defense in the league, while also being a top-five passing defense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they’re averaging only 22.2 points per game this year. And they scored 69 total points in the first two weeks of the year. Since Week 3, Arizona is 25th in the league in EPA per play (-0.078), and the Cardinals would be 26th in the league in that statistic if that was their mark over the course of the entire season. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe Arizona will be able to consistently march down the field against Los Angeles.
The Cardinals also happen to be 23rd in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.027) this year. That’s troubling against a Chargers team that loves to pound the rock. Los Angeles might not have any star running backs, but this team is going to be persistent in using the run to set up Justin Herbert and the passing game. And I’d be surprised if Herbert doesn’t take advantage of the Cardinals’ weak rushing defense by making some big throws over the top.
Los Angeles is simply a much better defensive team than Arizona, and I’m not sure the Cardinals are better than the Chargers on offense. So, even though this is a road game for Jim Harbaugh’s group, I’d be stunned if Los Angeles doesn’t find a way to pull this out. In Harbaugh’s coaching career, his teams are 17-3 straight-up as road favorites of 7 or less. And while a lot of that winning took place in San Francisco, this year’s team is 2-0 in that situation. Harbaugh is also 16-9 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 in his career. He’s a winner and he gets the best out of his teams in situations like these.
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10-21-24 10:10 PM |
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