let's get back at it, after the International Break
GL

Best OVER teams this EPL season

Aston Villa 5-2
Wolves 4-1-2
Everton 4-2-1
Man City 4-3
Brentford 2-1

Best UNDER teams

Liverpool 5-1-1
Newcastle 5-2
Chelsea 5-2
Man U 4-2-1
Bournemouth 4-2-1
Arsenal 4-3

Updated odds to win the EPL at BetMGM

Arsenal +150
Man City +165
Liverpool +350
Chelsea +2000
Tottenham +5000
All other teams +10000 or longer odds

20% of bets (most) are on Arsenal to win the league.

This match should be end to end football with a lot of chances at both ends of the pitch.

Tottenham are the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League because they have the lowest PPDA. They will typically press in a man to man fashion while playing a high defensive line that can get them into trouble. The second half against Brighton exposed that because Brighton didn’t drop anyone deep in build up and instead left their front four in 1 v 1 situations against Tottenham’s back line, which is what led to the first goal with Mitoma beating his defender to set up Rutter.

The other thing that was concerning in that game against Brighton was Tottenham’s ability to defend crosses into the box. Two goals and four of their five best chances for the match came off of crosses.

Tottenham's aggression out of possession is more of a positive than a negative, however. It allows them to turn opponents over high and create easy transition opportunities. Tottenham are averaging well over two expected goals per 90 minutes and are turning opponents over in dangerous areas at the fourth-highest rate in the Premier League. If there is one team that is going to be very successful against, it’s West Ham. The Hammers are dead last in opponent PPDA and have made countless mistakes trying to transition from a transition based team under David Moyes to a build up team under Lopetegui.

With that being said, when West Ham are able to get into those transition breaks they are dangerous, especially in wide areas. The Hammers scored three goals as result of crosses from transition breaks against Ipswich and are top 10 in crosses completed into the penalty area.

With Tottenham’s style of play under Ange Postecoglu their matches are always going to be high event.

The Premier League is back this weekend after a week of international soccer. West Ham make the trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the first game of match day 8.

Tottenham are as inconsistent as ever. A slow start was followed by five wins in a row, until a disappointing 3-2 loss to Brighton in which Spurs were leading 2-0 at the half. They will be looking to move past that loss and improve on their current ninth-place position in the standings.

West Ham have also had a rocky start to the season, picking up only eight points in seven games. The Hammers just went though a series of five games without a win before a convincing 4-1 win against Ipswich Town ahead of the international break. They will hope this gives them confidence going into this matchup.

Tottenham fell to Brighton in their last game despite leading 2-0 at half. Ange Postecoglou's side fell apart and was losing by the 66th minute. The Australian manager described that loss as "the worst" of his tenure in North London so far. This game summarized Tottenham's results since Postecoglou took charge, an impressive scoring output matched by defensive liabilities. The team presses high and looks to get the ball up the pitch as quick as possible once they get it back. They currently rank second in attacking third tackles.

There have been questions whether Postecoglou's style of play is to blame for such results. His high risk, high-reward brand of soccer has been praised at times, but it has also resulted in Tottenham conceding far too many big chances. The team has the highest number of expected goals in the league so far, and it has shown how well the team can play when it all clicks. Against Brighton, however, a series of individual mistakes were also to blame, from missed tackles to lazy marking, leading to the three quick-fire goals scored.

In that game, Tottenham conceded six goal-creating actions, more than in any other game. They themselves had four GCA after recording five in their previous two games, and they are likely to produce similar numbers against West Ham, who conceded six and five GCA to Chelsea and Man City respectively. Brennan Johnson has been at the forefront of the scoring output, with goals in his last seven games for club and country. Look for him to try and keep the streak going, considering Son is coming back from an injury and might not be at 100%.

The Hammers have been very disappointing this season. While they are coming off a 4-1 win over Ipswich, it was only their second win in the league. West Ham are not playing continental soccer this season, and they got knocked out of the EFL Cup 5-1 by Liverpool, meaning their sole focus is now on the Premier League.

West Ham haven't recorded a clean sheet since August 28th in a 1-0 win in the EFL Cup against Bournemouth. A new center back partnership was acquired in the summer, with Max Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo coming in. The pair have now started the last three games together, resulting in a loss, a draw and win in that order and they are looking to find some consistency.

West Ham's struggles to find a true striker are yet to be solved, an issue that has plagued the club for multiple seasons now. Michail Antonio, their all-time Premier League top scorer, is now 34, and he needs more goalscoring support from Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, both of whom scored in against Ipswich. No player has scored more than two goals this season, and the team has struggled to create goal-scoring chances apart from the win over Ipswich. West Ham have failed their first three tests of the season, losing to Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool and conceding 11 goals in those games.

Both of these teams are not far from each other in the league, and a West Ham win would see them leap over Tottenham. While the Hammers are looking to finally kickstart their season, Spurs are hoping to get back on a positive streak and show their loss to Brighton wasn't anything too serious. There are little doubts over Tottenham's scoring ability, however the difference will be whether they can avoid individual errors on the defensive end. The talismanic Heung-Min Son is is not 100% fit, meaning Spurs will look to summer signing Dominic Solanke, as well as Brennan Johnson, to extend his goalscoring streak.

The key in this game will be whether or not Tottenham can commit their full focus for 90 minutes. West Ham have some impressive attacking options in Bowen and Kudus and I see them score at least one, either due to their own talent or Spurs' fragility at the back. Neither team can satisfy themselves with a draw considering their league form so far and they will be looking to grab a win.

Defending Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen sit three points off the summit as we move towards MD7 this term. Xabi Alonso’s all-conquering outfit have so far struggled to match last season’s highs; Die Werkself were downed by RB Leipzig at the end of August, fortunate to escape with a point at Bayern Munich and held at home by Holstein Kiel.

Leverkusen are still creating and converting freely in forward areas but Die Schwarzroten have been unable to find the same standards of defensive stability, giving away a plethora of soft goals. Four of Bayer’s first six Bundesliga opponents have scored at least twice against Alonso’s outfit and that should only encourage a confident Eintracht Frankfurt side.

Eintracht arrive in fine form, fresh from a thrilling 3-3 draw against Bayern, and a similar showdown could be in the offing here. Dino Toppmoller’s team also prefer to play an attractive and entertaining style, proactive in possession with a largely positive process. However, Die Adler have also been hampered by their own sloppy rearguard action.

Frankfurt have kept a solitary shutout in nine matches across all competitions this season – those nine dates have delivered an enormous 4.22 goals per-game with six overcoming the Over 3.5 Goals barrier. Eintracht themselves have plundered multiple strikes in eight of those nine outings, even notching 3+ goals on six occasions.

Meanwhile, Leverkusen’s 10 tussles this term have produced 38 strikes – Bayer have scored at least twice in seven of those contests, yet also conceded two goals or more in five of those fixtures. Looking purely at the Bundesliga, the duo have delivered successful Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score winners in nine of 12 combined encounters.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS

Goals look well worth opposing in Belgium on Sunday considering Both Teams To Score ‘No’ is trading as the outsider at 1.95 when Standard Liege host Sporting Charleroi. The hosts have been a turgid team to follow this term, scoring just five goals across their opening 10 league matches, however, Les Rouches’ have conceded just eight of their own.

Unsurprisingly, arch-pragmatist Ivan Leko is overseeing the worst attack in the Belgium top-flight, alongside the second-best defence. In eight of those tussles, Under 2.5 Goals has proven a profitable play, yet BTTS No backers have collected on nine occasions and that has to be the angle here with Charleroi following suit in seven of their first 10 games.

Both Teams To Score ‘No’ has therefore been the right selection in 16 of the duos combined 20 Pro League matches this season

Aston Villa look to continue a five-match Premier League unbeaten run when they make a challenging trip to face Fulham on Saturday.

So far Villa have proven capable of earning league results while balancing the commitments of continental play. But the margins have been thin, with only one of Villa’s four league wins coming by multiple goals and manager Unai Emery’s side settling for draws in their last two PL fixtures.

Fulham saw their five-match league unbeaten run halted with a 3-2 defeat at Manchester City heading into the international break. But Marco Silva’s men arguably deserved at least a point from their effort at the Etihad, where they out-created the home side.

Villa have won the last three league fixtures between these sides, including 2-1 in their previous visit to Craven Cottage in February.

The eighth-place Cottagers may have failed to halt a long-running slide against City, but their performance in defeat should convince neutral observers that their strong start to the campaign is legitimate.

Raul Jimenez set up Andreas Pereira for an excellent opening goal in the 26th minute, and Jimenez was again the provider on an excellent chance for Adama Traore that could’ve leveled the game at 2-all in the 68th minute.

And Rodrigo Muniz’s late strike set the stage for some nervy final moments, not to mention getting the young Brazilian off the mark after his breakout during the back half of last season.

Perhaps that’s enough for Muniz to edge Jimenez for a start on Saturday, since the latter will be returning from a far flung international assignment with Mexico, The 33-year old scored one goal and assisted the other over 81 minutes in Tuesday’s 2-0 friendly win over the United States.

The loss marked the sixth consecutive match where Fulham have created more expected goals than their opponents. The last three of those have come against opponents currently in the top half of the table.

While Villa have so far earned good results both domestically and in the UEFA Champions League, perhaps there are signs that burden could eventually lead to an erosion of form.

The Villains have been out-created in terms of xG in their last three matches, including league games against newly promoted Ipswich and a sputtering Manchester United side.

But they also have something nearly every team in the world would envy in two in-form center forwards.

Ollie Watkins has four league goals as Emery’s starter, and Jhon Duran has another four scored entirely in the substitute’s role. Duran is developing a knack for scoring some bombastic goals, including match-winners in the 3-2 league victory over Everton back in September and 1-0 UCL win over Bayern Munich on Oct. 2.

One other promising detail for Villa: They’ve scored multiple goals in all five of their away matches in all competitions so far this season, while doing so only twice in five home fixtures.

Villa being a slight underdog here may stand out at first glance, but given the home venue and the quality of Fulham’s performances I think the three-way line here is about right.

Where I see opportunity is in backing a trend that has cashed in every single Fulham home game and Villa away game thus far.

That’s a same-game parlay on both teams finding the net and the total staying beneath 4.5.

Newcastle vs. Brighton
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Newcastle have flown a little under the radar at the start of this season and are off to one of their best starts in many years. The performances haven’t been great, but they have coped with injuries to key players, changed formation and style and produced some good results.

Two of those players are their recognized strikers Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson, but there is a strong chance both could be fit to play some part in this weekend’s game. That would be a massive boost against a Brighton side that can’t stop conceding goals.

The Seagulls have allowed 10 goals in their last four games, with at least two in each of them. That will be a massive concern to Fabian Hürzeler. He knows his side was left off the hook by Spurs in the last game, having gone in at halftime down 2-0.

For me, the home side, unbeaten at St James Park this season across four games in all competitions, is being very underrated. They have only lost once on home soil in 2024, that defeat coming to Manchester City in January 12 games ago, and have won seven of the last 10.

Another boost for them comes with England naming Thomas Tuchel as their new head coach this week, ending rumors Eddie Howe would be offered the job. If it wasn’t before, then his clear focus now will be getting Newcastle back in the top four.

I am still not convinced by Brighton. Yes, they are the data darlings, easy on the eye and always looking to attack, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you win soccer matches. Especially when you concede at the rate they are, and it seems with no indication of that changing soon.

This is a great price, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Newcastle go off at minus money, especially if one of Isak or Wilson can make the starting lineup.

Let’s start with Ipswich's underlying numbers. Through seven matches, Ipswich have only created five expected goals and allowed 15.3. Both of those are dead last in the Premier League. They have lost the expected goals battle in six of their seven matches and Everton are about the worst possible matchup for them.

This is one of the few matches where Kieran McKenna’s side will likely control a majority of the possession. They haven’t held over 50% possession in a single Premier League match, which highlights the core problem of his side. He wants his side to build out of the back with a lot of fluid rotations and quick passing to play through an opponent's press. There have been instances where they have been able to get through the first couple of phases of build up, but they have absolutely nothing in the final third. Liam Delap has scored four of their six goals off of only 1.2 expected goals, so his level of production is not going to continue. In addition to that, Ipswich are averaging the fewest box entries and lowest xThreat of anyone through seven matches.

We know what Everton are at this point. They are going to play in their high defensive block, looking to win the ball high up the pitch to create easy transition opportunities. They have been incredibly effective at doing that this season forcing opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas at the third-highest rate in the Premier League. Even though Ipswich are holding less than 40% of the ball, they are turning the ball over in their own end of the pitch at the third-highest rate.

The biggest thing when you are playing Everton is you have to be able to defend crosses and set pieces. Ipswich can’t do either one of those things effectively. West Ham scored three goals as the result of a cross completed in the penalty area in their last match. In addition to that, they are 14th in xG per set piece allowed.

Southampton are one of those teams where their surface level numbers look a lot worse than their underlying numbers. I am not trying to say they are a good team, they just aren’t the worst team in the Premier League, which is how everyone is viewing them right now.

Russell Martin’s tactics are never going to last in the Premier League. Southampton are never going to be able to control the ball, build out of the back and play through some of the better teams in this league, but they can do it against a team like Leicester. They showed that when they played Ipswich earlier this season. In that match, Southampton were able to create 2.4 expected goals off of just 11 shots and completely tilted the field on Ipswich. In fact, Southampton have the second-best buildup completion percentage in the Premier League right now.

Leicester have not been a good defensive team under Steve Cooper, especially the last two games. Against Arsenal and Bournemouth they have conceded 6.5 expected goals. Funnily enough, Southampton have played the exact same two opponents in their last two games as well and they only conceded 3.1 expected goals.

These are the worst two set piece defenses in the Premier League, but Southampton are second offensively in xG per set piece, which will be a huge advantage against Leicester.

As we continue our Premier League predictions for match day 8, Brighton make the trip up North to play Newcastle on Saturday. This looks to be a great matchup, with both teams tied at 12 points in the league table.

Newcastle are coming off a 0-0 draw to Everton in which they should have realistically come out victorious, but that game highlighted the team’s inability to score so far.

Brighton are as unpredictable as ever. They picked up a 3-2 win in a hectic game against Tottenham before the international break after trailing by two goals at half. The team is loaded with talent, especially in the attacking third, but they lack defensive stability.

One of Newcastle's biggest flaws so far has been their goal-scoring output. The team currently has the 14th-most goals scored and they haven't scored more than two goals in any games this season. Newcastle have therefore been relying on a very strong defense, only conceding the fourth-fewest goals in the Premier League. In fact, besides a 3-1 defeat away at Fulham, the team has never conceded more than one goal.

Alexander Isak only has one goal so far this campaign and has missed the last three games with injuries. Callum Wilson is also questionable for this game, meaning Eddie Howe might have to start a front three with no true center forward. Harvey Barnes has been impressive with three goals, however along with Anthony Gordon, the team cannot solely rely on their output. In terms of injuries, it is worth noting that Kieran Trippier will also miss out.

Newcastle have turned St. James Park into a fortress, not losing at home since the 13th of January and posting a memorable 3-2 loss to Man City. It also looks like Sandro Tonali is back to his best after serving a one-year suspension. Along with Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton, Newscastle boast a very strong midfield that I think Howe's 4-3-3 will overpower Brighton in the center of the field, especially if Fabian Hurzeler opts to continue with his 4-2-3-1 that was victorious against Tottenham.

Hurzeler's Brighton like to play attacking football. The team presses high and looks to find its speedster wingers like Mitoma, Minteh or Adingra in 1 v 1 situations. Brighton lead the league in successful take-ons leading to a shot attempt. They high-press to take the opposition by surprise and force mistakes, as was the case in the game against Tottenham.

Brighton are so effective at taking opponents on and they look to put the ball in the box as soon as the wingers/fullbacks see an opening. You can usually find at last three players looking to receive it and it has proven very effective. They perform the third-most crosses in the league and win 53.8% of their aerial duels.

This intense press means Brighton's center backs are very high up the pitch, leaving teams the chance to break in behind as was the case in a 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest. Chelsea were able to capitalize on this, scoring four goals and continuously exposing Brighton's backline. The Seagulls have committed the second-most errors leading to goals this season in the Premier League. It is worth noting they are tied with Newcastle on that front.

Newcastle have underperformed on their expected goals vs actual goals by -2.4. On the other hand, Brighton have over-performed their xG by 2.3. This further confirms that Brighton have no problem putting the ball in the back of the net and Newcastle really can't score. I do think there will be chances for the speed of Gordon to hurt Brighton's backline.

Newcastle are unlikely to lose this game at home, especially to a direct rival, and I see them continuing to struggle to score, but really it is on their midfield to do most of the job both offensively and defensively. Brighton will look to do what they do best which is cause chaos for the opposition, and I don't see them having the same scoring output as usual.

During Eddie Howe's tenure on the south coast, Bournemouth caused Arsenal problems numerous times. However, that hasn't been a trend the Cherries have been able to continue since getting promoted back into the the Premier League. Arsenal prevailed in both clashes with Bournemouth last season by an aggregate score of 7-0, and they did the same in 2022/23 by a 5-2 margin.

Mikel Arteta seems to have his Basque counterpart Andoni Iraola's number, but will that change Saturday?

Unlike their visitors this weekend, the Cherries left the pitch in their last match with a bad taste in their mouths. A fairly dominant performance statistically was rewarded with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of relegation candidate Leicester City, leaving a club that might have had European aspirations entering the campaign with just two wins from their first seven. Currently, Bournemouth sit in 13th with eight points and are 11th in the league in Expected Threat (xT) differential, so their results are generally matching their performances.

Second-year boss Iraola will have his entire squad at his disposal for this fixture — a rarity in today's age — and that includes Tyler Adams, who has spent nearly the entirety of his first 12 months at the club on the treatment table. Despite losing talisman Dominic Solanke, Bournemouth's style under the Spaniard hasn't changed. They're still an aggressive out-of-possession side that wants to continuously force turnovers and maximize the attacking transitions that follow, but it's hard to gauge how much Solanke's final product will be missed.

Evanilson, brought in from Porto to be the Cherries' new No. 9, has the physical frame to match his predecessor, but whether he possesses the same box movement and link-up play is another question. Antoine Semenyo has become the main man in Bournemouth's attack off the right and has a team-high three league goals, but the 24-year old Ghanaian has also displayed high-level creative capacity too.

Arsenal nearly went into the international break by dropping points at home to Southampton, but like they usually do at the Emirates these days, they found a way to get the win in the end. Then, over the international window, the North London club had another potential big loss when Bukayo Saka had to be taken off due to injury in England's first fixture. However, based on comments from Lee Carsley and Arteta, it appears it was nothing serious and Saka will be ready to go for this one. Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli also have been dealing with minor issues, but again those shouldn't keep them out of this game.

The statuses of Jurrien Timber, Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko are less clear, and Martin Odegaard and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain out. Additionally, Neto will not be available as he's currently on loan from Bournemouth and cannot face his parent club. So, in the event David Raya gets injured, there would be a big drop-off to whichever youth player Arteta decides to throw into that situation. If Timber and White are both unavailable, that does destabilize the Gunners' back four a bit, but Mikel Merino being healthy does make fielding Thomas Partey at right back more palatable.

As always, we know how good Arsenal are, and with an "easier" Champions League fixture at the midweek (Shakhtar Donetsk at home), they should produce a performance that meets their usual standards.

Bournemouth's game model really only works when they come up against sides that are worse than they are. As soon as they come up against a team with a physical or technical advantage, it becomes very difficult to keep such an aggressive defensive approach going for 90 minutes, and those better teams will be well-equipped to exploit the gaps that will eventually open.

Arsenal are physically well ahead of their opponents in this fixture, which makes playing long against a man-to-man press very viable, and they also have the on-ball quality to stress Bournemouth's defensive structure the rest of the time. It will also be challenging for the home side to establish any sort of territorial or possession advantage, since Arsenal are as good as anyone when it comes to their defensive setup. I can see the Cherries, with the home crowd behind them for a late kickoff, getting off to a fiery start and competing for the first 10-to-15 minutes, but after that they'll fade and Arsenal should come away with a fairly straightforward victory.

Man City look to keep pace with Arsenal and Liverpool when they travel to the Molineux to take on Wolves.

Wolves are in a dire situation at the moment. Before the international break they were beaten 5-3 by Brentford, which means they have only picked up one point from their first seven matches. They have played one of the most difficult schedules, but Gary O'Neill needs to start picking up points in a hurry if he's going to have a job come Christmas.

Manchester City got a big time scare from Fulham before the international break winning only 3-2 while honestly getting outplayed. It's been a strange season for the defending champions with so much happening off the pitch along with the injury to their star player Rodri. These are the types of matches that they cannot afford to slip up if they are going to win a record fifth straight Premier League title.

The core problem with Wolves right now is they don't have enough in their attack to threaten good defensive teams. Losing Pedro Neto late in the transfer window was a massive loss as they don't have a main creator out wide or in the middle that can supply the front line. Having forwards like Matheus Cunha, Hee-Chan Hwang and Jørgen Strand Larsen does give you chance at having a mid-table level offense, but with nobody to supply them Wolves are stuck. That is why they've only been able to create 6.6 expected goals through their first seven matches.

The defense is shipping goals for fun at this point, as the loss of Max Kilman has been felt across their back line. Wolves have conceded 21 goals in seven matches, with over half of those goals coming against Chelsea and Brentford. The problem with Wolves is they allow way too much space in the middle of the pitch, so teams are constantly able to overload them. That is a big problem against the best team in the world at playing through the middle.

The other problem is they aren't defending their penalty area at an elite level anymore. The reason they stayed up last season despite terrible underlying metrics was because they were one of the best teams at blocking shots and defending crosses into their penalty area. They are allowing the third-most box entries and have the third worst final third to box entry conversion rate allowed, which is a bad sign against the best offensive team in the Premier League.

They drastically over-performed defensively last season and they are feeling the effects of that negative regression this year. A lot of it has to do with the fact that both Jose Sa and Sam Johnston have been below average goalkeepers.

What has been happenening to Manchester City this season is teams have made the decision to concede most of the possession and sit in a very compact deep defensive block, which is forcing Manchester City to settle for a lot of low quality efforts. The Cityzens lead the Premier League with 54 shots from outside the box and currently have the fifth-highest average shot distance.

The reason for that is Guardiola is obsessed with controlling the middle of the pitch and everyone knows it. So, when teams are sitting in those low, compact defensive structures, there is no space to pass the ball through the middle even if they have a 5 v 4 or 6 v 5 overload. Manchester City have big issues because they have lost Rodri for the season and Kevin De Bruyne might not play in this match.

Without Rodri, City lose ultimate control over a match, with Kovacic now thrusted into that role. He did score two goals in their previous game, but him with lkay Gündoğan in middle doesn't provide City with enough ball winning, so teams that are decent in transition have been able to punish them. Their last match against Fulham was a perfect example as there were way too many instances where Fulham had a numerical advantage on the break and were really unlucky not to win the match, as they created 2.6 expected goals.

City certainly have had problems breaking down low blocks like the one Wolves are going to throw at them, but I am not sure Wolves have enough to break in transition and cause Manchester City any problems.

Instead, I think there is some value in the player props market on Manchester City's star striker Erling Haaland. I am not breaking any news telling you he's the best striker in the world, but what I find interesting is he's getting a higher level of production this season than he ever has in a Manchester City shirt.

Liverpool look to remain atop the Premier League table when they host Chelsea in the biggest match of the weekend in the Premier League.

Arne Slot's side has been amazing to begin their season, winning 6-of-7 matches in the Premier League. While that is impressive, they have not beaten a team that finished inside the top seven last year, so this will be their first big test.

Chelsea have been equally impressive under Enzo Maresca as of late, winning five of their last six matches before the international break. The Blues are on the ascension up the table, but they have yet to beat an elite team, so it would be massive for them to get a result at Anfield.

We are coming off an international break and the last time Liverpool were in this situation they played Nottingham Forest and not only suffered their lone loss of the season, but it was the first time they created under one expected goal in a match under Slot. Nottingham Forest sat in a 4-2-4 low block and did not allow Liverpool to play through the middle. More importantly they didn’t let Liverpool get into transition opportunities. That is where Liverpool are most dangerous and it’s how they’ve created most of their big scoring chances this season.

Under Slot, Liverpool will sit in a 4-2-4 mid block and try to force turnovers from that mid block while relying on pressing triggers on when to press opponents high up the pitch. They’ve been so good at stopping teams progressing through the middle of the pitch with fantastic ball winning, which was missing for most of last season under Klopp. Another thing that the front line has done a good job of is angling themselves to not allow easy outlet balls to the fullbacks, which is something Chelsea do with regularity when they build out of their deep 4-2 shape.

One of the best aspects under Arne Slot is Liverpool’s transition defense. When they lose the ball they are always making sure the opponent doesn’t have a numerical advantage on the break and it also helps that they have two of the best center backs in Van Dijk and Konate, who can both cover a lot of ground and are elite at winning ground duels.

By the numbers Liverpool have been the best defensive team in the Premier League through seven matches. They have only conceded two goals and are allowing 0.73 npxG per 90 minutes. It’s no fluke because they are allowing the lowest amount of box entries and the lowest xThreat as well.

Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea sure are interesting, but I am not sure if his tactics are going to work against elite teams. Sure, against teams like West Ham and Brighton Chelsea can put up big numbers, but their last match against Nottingham Forest was a struggle.

What Maresca wants Chelsea to do in possession is build out in a 4-2-2-3 with the goalkeeper coming out and acting as a second center back to get them a numerical advantage in the first phase. Once they progress the ball up the pitch it morphs into a 3-2-5 with the aim of creating a five man overload in the middle. Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez will play in between the two defensive lines, dropping into the half space, where they have done a lot of damage.

However, against Nottingham Forest they weren’t given the room to operate, so because of that Chelsea had 1 v 1 situations out wide and they kept funneling the ball to Madueke, who ended up taking seven shots for the match. That generally meant that most of their chances were of low quality. In the end they created 2.3 expected goals against Nottingham Forest, but half of that came after the 78th minute when James Ward-Prowse got a red card.

Defensively, Chelsea aren't pressing as aggressively as expected lately. Rather, Maresca is preferring more of a 4-2-3-1 mid block. He does want his team to squeeze the pitch and play a high defensive line, which does leave them exposed in behind. So far though it’s been successful because Chelsea are only allowing 1.0 npxG per 90 minutes and have only conceded two big scoring chances on the season.

What will be interesting is who has more control in this match? Liverpool have yet to play a match where they hold under 50% possession and Chelsea really have only had one match (their first one against Manchester City) where they weren’t in complete control. I highly doubt we are going to see either side sit deep and try to play in transition for the entire match, which means both are going to try to build out of the back using three man combinations to play through each other's mid block, which creates a slow-paced match.

Liverpool have been so good defensively this season, but their ability to control matches from even game states and when playing with a lead is what has been most impressive. From an even game state, Liverpool are only allowing 0.43 xG per 90 minutes and when playing with a one goal lead they are only allowing 0.81 xG per 90 minutes.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are playing much more low-event matches than they were under Klopp because he values control and a solid defensive structure. There hasn’t been a single Premier League match that has featured more than 3.1 expected goals and every single one of Liverpool’s matches so far have gone under the opening total.

Liverpool vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET

In a season where everyone expected it to be a two-horse race for the title, the first seven games have seen both these sides give the impression they could be involved. This clash will tell us plenty about their abilities to challenge Manchester City and Arsenal and a fair bit about the two men in charge.

In the Blue corner, Enzo Maresca faces the biggest match of his brief managerial career. In the Red, Arne Slot looks to win the toughest league fixture of his first campaign in England and stay at the top of the division.

There will be plenty of hype and a big build-up as the prime-time weekend game here in the UK. But these games rarely deliver on the promise and end up slightly disappointing, especially if you are looking for goals. But that’s not disappointing, as I am playing Under 3.5 goals at a monster price of -124.

This fixture has real rivalry attached to it, and neither set of fans like the other. There have been some big meetings in recent years; they have also met in several finals. Generally they are keenly fought, tight encounters. So much so that five of the last seven meetings in all competitions have ended 0-0!

All those games were in the Jurgen Klopp era, a manager known for his full-throttle attacking soccer. This Liverpool side under Arne Slot is the most unattractive version we have seen in a decade.

Whichever way I look at this match, I can’t understand why the line is set at 3.5 goals and at such an attractive price.

Four of Liverpool’s five home games across all competitions under Slot have cashed Under 3.5 goals, and all seven of his Premier League games in charge at Anfield have cashed Under 3.5 goals. He is a patient manager who enjoys seeing his teams in control, happy to win 2-0 rather than lose points in chasing another goal.

Chelsea has a 100% road record this season, and although the crazy game at Wolves sticks in people’s memory, their other two wins have been by 1-0 and 3-0. But Wolves have the worst defense in the league, which is a completely different task than the one ahead of them here.

Yes, Chelsea have scored 16 league goals this term, but ten of those have come in two chaotic fixtures against sides for who defending is an afterthought. Liverpool has the best defense in the league, conceding just two goals.

Of the last 31 meetings between these two sides, this bet has cashed in 27 of them. It looks like incredible value for that run to be extended this weekend.

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace
Monday, 03:00 p.m. ET

The UK version of Monday Night Football takes us to the City Ground in Nottingham—a venue that usually guarantees an electric atmosphere and, since their return to the Premier League, has guaranteed Forest points.

That has not been the case this season, with Nuno Espírito Santo still waiting for his side to win their first game on home soil. It was incredible for a team that was basically saved from relegation by their strong record in front of their fans.

Forest have drawn with Bournemouth and Wolves, both 1-1, and lost 1-0 to Fulham. Remarkably, they are unbeaten on the road and are not just the only side to keep a clean sheet against Liverpool but the sole team to take points off them.

In eight matches across all competitions this term, Nuno has seen his men draw five. The same outcome has happened in the last three meetings with Crystal Palace, with 0-0 and 1-1 stalemates last term.

Although they don’t score many, Forest has hit the back of the net in every game this season, barring that defeat to Fulham. That is where a key piece of team news comes into play. It was leaked in a social media video this week that their captain Morgan Gibbs-White was balancing on crutches with a protective boot over his right foot.

It seems likely the England international will miss out on this fixture. He is such a vital part of this side his absence will be missed incredibly. The only game he has missed so far? You guessed it, Fulham.

Palace are really struggling. They are in the relegation zone, still searching for their first win. They have scored just five goals. Only Southampton have less.

The Eagles are really missing the departed Michael Olise, and without him, Eberechi Eze has yet to hit form. The hosts are a negative side at the best of times, so if they are missing their talisman, expect an even more defensively-minded setup from their safety-first manager. On that basis, it is hard to see this current version of Crystal Palace being able to break them down.

It would not surprise me in the slightest to see this end 0-0