In the Kirby Smart era, Georgia is 31-17 (65%) ATS vs. Top 25 opponents

Including 10-5 ATS vs. Top 5 teams.

Georgia +5 at Texas.

Nebraska @ Indiana (-6.5)
Nebraska (5-1, 2-1)
Nebraska allowed total of 34 points in its four I-A wins.
Nebraska won its only road game, 28-10 at Purdue.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola threw fo4 1,345 yards in his five I-A games.

Nebraska’s only loss was 31-24 at home to Illinois.
Nebraska is 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
As college coach, Rhule is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 5+ years, Cornhuskers are 8-13-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their I-A games.

Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Hoosiers are 3-0 in league games, scoring 42-42-41 points.
Last three games, Indiana gained 510-510-529 yards.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Rourke started 33 games at Ohio U.

Indiana is 15-7 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 14-5 ATS in conference games.
Indiana is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 games coming off a win.
Indiana’s last four games went over the total.

Nebraska won two of three meetings as league rivals.
Under was 2-1 in those games.
Big 14 home favorites are 8-9 ATS in league games.

Auburn @ Missouri (-4.5)
Auburn (2-4, 0-3)
Auburn is 0-3 in SEC, losing by 10-6-18 points.
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Thorpe has 37 career starts.

Last 3+ years, Auburn is 6-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 18-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 6-5 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Freeze is 28-22 ATS coming off a loss.
Auburn is minus-11 in turnovers this season.

Missouri (5-1, 1-1)
Mizzou scored 35 ppg in its four I-A wins.
Tigers only loss was 41-10 at Texas A&M.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 107 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Cook has started 26 games.

Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 9-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 19-17 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 14-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
Under Drinkwitz, Tigers are 12-15-1 ATS at home.

Auburn won last three series games (only won was since 2017)
Over was 2-1 in those games.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.

South Carolina @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina lost tough 27-25 game at Alabama last week.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.

Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-13 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Carolina split two road games (31-6 at Kentucky/27-25 at Bama)

Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291-237 yards in its SEC games (1-2).
Sooners were held to 15-3 points in losses (25-15 Tennessee/34-3 Texas)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)

Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers this year.
Under is 4-2 in their games this season.

Alabama @ Tennessee (-3)
Alabama (5-1, 2-1)
Alabama is 2-1 in SEC games, giving up 34-40-25 points
Crimson Tide scored 35+ points in five of six games.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.

Last six years, Alabama is 0-2 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Alabama is 10-8-1 ATS in its last 19 SEC games.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
Alabama is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.

Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)
Tennessee is 2-1 in SEC games (average total, 38.3).
Tennessee is giving up 10.7 ppg this season.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 22-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-15 ATS in SEC games.
Vols were held to 25-14-23 points in their SEC games.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.

Alabama won 16 of last 17 series games.
Crimson Tide is 9-2 ATS in last 11 visits to Knoxville.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in conference games.

Michigan (-3.5) @ Illinois
Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
Michigan scored 27+ points in its wins, 12-17 in losses.
Wolverines lost their only road game last week, 27-17 at Washington.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).

Michigan is already playing their third QB this season.
Last three games, Michigan has a total of 231 passing yards.
Wolverines are 19-11-3 ATS in its last 33 conference games.
Michigan is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Four of their last five games went over the total.

Illinois (5-1, 2-1)
LW, Illinois won 50-49 in OT; they led 27-3 in third quarter.
Illini’s only loss was 21-7 at Penn State.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.

Under Bielema, Illinois is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 15-14 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-13 ATS in conference games.
Last two weeks, Illinois gave up 239-239 rushing yards.
Illinois is minus-4 in turnovers, in its three Big 14 games.

Michigan won six in row, 12 of last 14 series games.
Wolverines are 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Illinois.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.

USC (-7) @ Maryland
USC (3-3, 1-3)
Trojans lost three of their first four Big 18 games.
USC is 0-2 on road (27-24 Michigan/24-17 Minnesota)
USC’s three losses are by 3-7-3 points.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).

USC is 0-6 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
In his career, Riley is 8-19-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Trojans are 11-23 ATS in last 34 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 33-39-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Riley is 5-9 ATS coming off a loss.
USC is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Maryland (3-3, 0-3)
Terps lost their two conference games, 27-24/42-28/37-10.
Maryland gave up 7-13-20 points in their wins.
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Edwards is 156-228/1,740 passing (11 TDs, 3 INT).

Under Locksley, Maryland is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2020, Maryland is 7-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Locksley, Terps are 19-31 ATS in conference games.
Terps were minus-4 in turnovers LW (+11 in first five games).
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.

Colorado @ Arizona (-2.5)
Colorado (4-2, 2-1)
Colorado won three of its last four games.
Colorado gained 418+ TY in its wins, 260-359 in losses.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.

Sanders is 8-3 ATS as an underdog with Colorado, 4-3 on road.
Since 2014, Colorado is 19-26-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sanders, Buffs are 8-4 ATS in conference games.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 6-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Colorado’s last three games went over the total.

Arizona (3-3, 1-3)
Arizona is 1-3 in Big X games, giving up 31-28-41 points in losses.
Wildcats scored 61-23 points in I-A wins, 7-22-19 in losses.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.

Arizona is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Brennan is 11-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Wildcats are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 33-25-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four games.

Arizona is 9-3 in its last 12 games vs Colorado.
Buffs are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tucson.
Over is 10-3 in last thirteen series games.

Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5)
Baylor (2-4, 0-4)
Baylor is 0-4 in Big X, giving up 38-34-43 points last 3 games.
Bears’ only I-A win was 31-3 at home over Air Force.
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Robertson started four games last year.

Under Aranda, Baylor is 9-8 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Aranda, Bears are 13-11 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 19-22 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +1 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
Baylor’s last three games went over the total.

Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0)
Texas Tech scored 28+ points in its wins, 16 in its loss (37-16 @ Wazzu)
Tech scored 66-30-44 points in its I-A home games.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (12 TDs/2 INTs this year)

Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 11-9-1 ATS in Big X games.
Last two games, Tech gave up 426-301 passing yards.
Tech is 31-34-1 ATS in its last 66 Big X games.
Four of Tech’s five wins were by 8 or fewer points.

Baylor is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Texas Tech.
Bears are 1-7 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Lubbock.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Georgia @ Texas (-5)
Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Georgia split two true road games: 34-31 at Alabama, 13-12 at Kentucky.
Last three games, Dawgs scored 34-31-41 points.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.

Georgia is an underdog for first time in its last 50 games.
Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
Georgia is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.
Georgia is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Georgia allowed 300+ PY in two of last three games.

Texas (6-0, 2-0)
Texas is 6-0, with all six wins by 19+ points.
Texas has outscored opponents 259-38 this season.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers is 78-108/890 passing (9 TD’s, 3 INTs)

Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 16-14 ATS in conference games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-12 ATS coming off a win.
Texas held all six opponents under 300 total yards.
31-12 win at Michigan is closest game they’ve played.

Texas (+12) upset Georgia 28-21 in a bowl game six years ago.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.

LSU (-1.5) @ Arkansas
LSU (5-1, 2-0)
LSU won its last five games, after a 27-20 loss to USC.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier is completing 64% of passes (18 TD’s, 6 INTs)

Under Kelly, Tigers are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 31-29-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 9-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 37-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
LSU’s last three games stayed under the total.

Arkansas (4-2, 2-1)
Arkansas won three of its last four games.
Razorbacks were minus-5 in turnovers in their losses (+3 in wins).
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.

Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
Arkansas’ last three games stayed under the total.

LSU is 7-1 SU/3-4-1 ATS in last eight meetings.
Tigers won last four visits (2-2 ATS) to Arkansas.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Underdogs are 17-4 ATS in SEC conference games.

Kentucky (-1.5) @ Florida
Kentucky (3-3, 1-3)
Kentucky scored 31-41-20 points in wins, 6-12-13 in losses.
Kentucky won its only road game, 20-17 (+15) at Ole Miss.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.

Since 2019, Kentucky is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Wildcats held 5 of 6 opponents to 288 or fewer total yards.
Kentucky is 15-13 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
Wildcats are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Kentucky games this season.

Florida (3-3, 1-2)
Florida scored 45-24 points in I-A wins, 17-20-17 in losses.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz is OFY; frosh QB Lagway has 5 TD passes, 4 INT’s.

Under Napier, Florida is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Napier is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 17-25-1 ATS overall.
Under Napier, Florida is 10-9 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 3-2 in Florida’s I-A games.

Kentucky won last three meetings, by 19-10-7 points.
Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Kentucky won two of last three visits to the Swamp.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

UNLV (-7.5) @ Oregon State
UNLV (5-1)
Rebels are 3-0 SU on road, winning by 20-3-16 points.
UNLV scored 59-41-50 points in its last three games.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Williams started 40 games at I-AA Campbell.

Under Odom, UNLV is 13-6 against the spread.
In his career, Odom is 6-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four games, UNLV is +10 in turnovers.
Under Odom, UNLV is 6-2 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three games, Rebels allowed 316/355/461 passing yards.

Oregon State (4-2)
Oregon gave up 49-42 points in its losses, 17.3 ppg in I-A wins.
Last three games, Beavers scored 38-39-37 points.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.

Oregon State is 1-4 ATS last five games as a home underdog.
Beavers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Beavers are 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Last 3 games, Oregon State ran ball for 341-251-214 yards.
Beavers’ last four games went over the total.

These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Mountain West favorites are 5-4 ATS, in non-conference games.

TCU @ Utah (-4.5)
TCU (3-3, 1-2)
TCU gave up 35-66-30 points in their three losses.
TCU gave up 289-238-207 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.

TCU is 4-11 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Dykes is 22-22 ATS as road underdog.
Under Dykes, TCU is 5-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Horned Frogs threw for 356+ yards in three of last four games.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games this season.

Utah (4-2, 2-2)
Utah lost its last two games, 23-10/27-19 after a 4-0 start.
Utes scored 22+ points in their four wins
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Wilson is 68-122/830 passing; QB Rising is OFY.

Utah is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
Utah is 16-13 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Utes are 0-2 when they run ball for less than 170 yards.
Since 2016, Utes are 45-29 ATS in conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Utah’s I-A games.

Popular (+60% of bets) College Football Week 8 bets at BetMGM

82% on Colorado +3
79% on SMU -16.5
79% on Iowa St -13.5
71% on Army -16.5
68% on Kansas State -3
67% on Miami -5
60% on Purdue +28.5
60% on BYU -9.5

Most bet (tickets) underdogs to win on Saturday at BetMGM

1. Tennessee +125

2. Georgia +165

3. Purdue +1800

East Carolina at No. 23 Army (-16.5; 51.5)
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Army is ranked for the first time since 2020 and ranked simultaneously with Navy for the first time since 1960.

You can only play the teams that are on your schedule, and Army has beaten all six thus far. However, it is fair to examine the schedule:
Lehigh (FCS)
at Florida Atlantic
Rice
at Temple
at Tulsa
UAB

Removing Lehigh from the equation, the combined record of Army’s FBS opponents is 8-22.

East Carolina is off a bye after an embarrassing 55-24 loss at Charlotte. The Pirates should be smarting off that loss, and having a bye week to prepare for the triple option is never a bad thing. In addition, ECU has played Navy each of the last five seasons, so they should be familiar with the Army offense.

The Pirates may not look all that great on paper, but they are not far from being 5-1 if not for blowing a 16-0 lead vs. Appalachian State and a 17-0 lead at Liberty.

Army is starting to get the national media attention, and that is always dangerous for any team that is not used to having the spotlight placed upon it.

East Carolina +16.5 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

I'm starting the day out by fading Army, which has gone 6-0 against the spread to start the season. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, for one, ECU could turn the ball over a million times, which the Pirates have done all season. I'm hoping a bit of positive regression hits in that area with ECU ranking 118th (-6) and Army in the top 10 (+7).

I also don't expect the Army defense to continue its outrageous success in the red zone with opponents scoring on only 41% of trips inside the 20 this season, which leads the nation. For reference, the Texas defense ranks second at 57%.

Army's offense has also scored touchdowns on an unsustainable 22-of-24 red-zone trips, while ECU has had one of the worst-performing red-zone offenses in the entire country in a metric that has plenty of short-term variance.

ECU will also benefit from coming off a bye week (after an embarrassing loss to Charlotte), which is always beneficial against a service academy offense.

Army has gone back to its basic triple-option attack with a bit more modern principles, which this ECU defense should have plenty of familiarity with since it has faced Navy in each of the past five seasons.

From a metrics standpoint, ECU also fits the profile of a defense that can slow down Army's vaunted ground game led by quarterback Bryson Daily. The Pirates rank in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate, EPA per Rush, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. That's the formula for containing this Army offense.

I also still have questions about the Army defense, which has played a bunch of carcasses, yet still ranks outside the top 90 in Success Rate.

While ECU has not been the model of consistency on offense primarily due to killer turnovers, it has flashed at times and has playmakers at the skill positions.

To me, this is the very tippy-top of the market on Army. And not only am I selling high on the Black Knights, but I'm buying low on the Pirates after the debacle against Charlotte.

This is still a team that's two blown 17-0 leads against Liberty and App State away from sitting at 5-1 overall. It doesn't hurt that it's coming off of a bye and has a plus-run defense.

Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana (-6.5; 49.5)
12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Two weeks ago, Indiana became the first bowl-eligible team in college football. Excitement is starting to percolate in Bloomington during the month of October, and it is not for basketball.

Curt Cignetti is changing the culture of Indiana Football and Indiana is even getting some discussion for the College Football Playoff. Perhaps it is my own PTSD as an Indiana alum and a lifelong Indiana Football fan where I am saying slow your roll just a little bit.

The Hoosiers are 6-0, but they have played the following:
Florida International
Western Illinois (FCS)
at UCLA
Charlotte
Maryland
at Northwestern

Meanwhile, Nebraska comes in at 5-1 and probably should be 6-0 in their own right if not for a loss to Illinois in overtime.

The Huskers’ defense is by far Indiana’s biggest test, as they rank Top 10 nationally in several categories:
Opponent Points/Game (13.0/#8)
Opponent Yards/Game (266.8/#8)
Opponent Points/Play (0.202/#7)
Opponent Yards/Play (4.2/#6)

Matt Rhule is 20-10 ATS as a Road Underdog in his career. This looks like a one-possession game either way.

Nebraska +7 at Indiana
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

A trend you'll notice this week is I'm backing a number of teams coming off byes with head coaches who have thrived as underdogs. This is another one that fits the bill with Matt Rhule — although it's worth mentioning that Indiana will also be coming off of a bye.

Indiana has been absolutely rolling under new head coach Curt Cignetti. All that guy does is win, and you can Google him if you don't believe me.

And while I came into the season higher than the market on this Hoosiers squad, I think we've reached the very peak of the market on IU, which has even started to get some College Football Playoff love.

Not exactly a murderer's row with none of those six ranking inside the top 50 of my latest power ratings.

This will obviously be a step up in class against a top-30 Nebraska team that's an overtime away from also sitting at 6-0.

If Illinois didn't make a miraculous interception in the end zone to get to overtime, we'd be talking about a huge battle of Big Ten undefeateds, and I can guarantee this spread would be sitting a few points lower than a touchdown.

I do still have some lingering questions about this Indiana defense, which allowed 24-plus points against Maryland (which amassed over 400 yards) and Northwestern, which were both within one possession at Indiana before the Hoosiers pulled away late.

The Nebraska defense will also provide the biggest resistance to date by a wide margin for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosier offense.

Nobody loses more one-possession games than Nebraska, which is probably what happens in this one.