Georgia State @ Marshall (-9)
Georgia State (2-3, 0-2)
Panthers lost their two Sun Belt tilts, 38-21/21-14.
Georgia State was outrushed 463-86 in those games.
Georgia State has 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
Georgia State has 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Veilleux started five games at Pitt last year

Panthers lost only road game, 35-12 (+21) at Georgia Tech.
Georgia State is 12-6 ATS last 18 games as a road underdog (0-1 TY).
Georgia State is 20-12 ATS in last 32 conference games (0-2 TY).
Panthers are 13-10-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Georgia State’s only I-A win: 36-32 (+8.5) over Vanderbilt.

Marshall (3-3, 1-1)
Marshall lost 24-23 LW; they led 23-3 after three quarters.
Marshall is 3-0 SU at home, with I-A wins by 7-15 points.
Thundering Herd has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Thundering Herd has 57 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Earle started twice for North Texas last year.

Marshall won/covered both its I-A home games this year.
Since 2016, Marshall is 13-29-1 ATS as a home favorite (2-0 TY).
Under Huff, Thundering Herd is 11-14-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Huff, Thundering Herd is 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Last three games, Marshal ran ball for 226.3 yards/game.

Teams split their first two meetings as Sun Belt rivals.
Georgia State (+6.5) lost 28-23 at Marshall two years ago.
Both series games went over the total.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-6.5)
Boston College (4-2, 1-1)
BC was held to 49-65 rushing yards in its two losses.
Eagles ran ball for 175.3 yards/game in their I-A wins.
Eagles have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Castellanos started 12 games LY.

Boston College is 5-3 ATS last eight games as a road underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
Eagles are 11-15 ATS in last 26 ACC games.
BC lost 27-21 at Mizzou, 24-14 at Virginia; won 28-13 at Florida State
Eagles’ last four games stayed under the total.

Virginia Tech (3-3, 1-1)
Tech is 0-3 in close games, losing by 7-3-4 points.
Hokies scored 31-37-31 points in their three wins.
Hokies have 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Drones started 11 games last year.

Under Pry, Tech is 4-6 ATS as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
Under Pry, Hokies are 11-6 ATS in ACC games.
Under Pry, Hokies are 4-6 ATS coming off a win.
Tech gave up 14-17-7 points in wins, 34-26-38 in losses.
Over is 4-2 in Tech games this season.

Virginia Tech won three of last four meetings.
Boston College is 1-3 SU/ATS last four visits to Blacksburg.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

In general, I would say that I’m not a big fan of laying points with a team that is somewhat underachieving in a season when facing one that is playing better than expected. I believe that is the case in this Boston College-Virginia Tech game on Thursday night. This was supposed to be a huge year for the Hokies, yet they sit 3-3 with several difficult games left to play. BC, on the other hand, was figured to be rebuilding this season under new head coach Bill O’Brien, yet it is 4-2 and is “effectively” playing just 1.7 PPG, which is worse on average than Virginia Tech.

So, how did this line get all the way up to 7? I don’t think bettors are falling for it either, with 52% of them at DK backing BC. When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). Furthermore, when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 & 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! With the Hokies coming off a nice 31-7 win over a beat-up Stanford team, they will also fall into this trend: Virginia Tech is 5-20 (20%) ATS in the last 25 games following up a SU win. I look for a tight game here.

Georgia State at Marshall
Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Marshall has yet to lose on a point spread this season, yet the line for this home contest versus Georgia State is dumping, down about two points from the opening line, despite 77% of the handle at DraftKings coming in on the Thundering Herd. What gives? Typically, with that much one-sided money coming in, the line would move the opposite, almost as if they were inviting more Marshall money in. Perhaps those behind the counter know some of the key trends.

For one, Marshall has lost to the Panthers in back-to-back years, and is 6-13 ATS (31.6%) in revenge mode since 2016. Second, Georgia State is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 13-3 ATS and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road/neutral games overall. The Herd come off a very disappointing conference loss to Georgia Southern and could have a letdown due to it. This GSU team also beat a much-improved Vanderbilt team earlier in the season. I think anything over a TD line in this game is overstating the difference in these teams.

Florida State @ Duke (-3)
Florida State (1-5, 1-4)
Florida State is 1-5, with only win 14-9 at home over Cal.
Last four games, FSU was held to 13-12-14-16-13 points.
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Glenn is 23-45/228 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)

Seminoles was outgained 410-284 by Cal, in their one win.
Florida State was held under 300 TY in all six games.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 4-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 5-10-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Seminole games this season.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.

Duke (5-1, 1-1)
Duke lost its last game, 24-14 at Georgia Tech.
Duke won its other ACC game, 21-20 over North Carolina.
Blue Devils have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Murphy started 2 games at Texas last year.

Duke is 9-3 ATS in last 12 as a home favorite.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2022, Duke is 11-7 ATS in ACC games.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Duke’s coach and QB last year both bolted el$ewhere for big $$$.

Florida State won last 17 series games.
Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
FSU won its last seven visits to Durham (5-1-1 ATS)
ACC home favorites are 7-8 ATS in conference games.

Oregon (-27.5) @ Purdue
Oregon (6-0, 3-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34-31-32 points in its I-A wins.
Last three games, Ducks gained 546-431-477-496 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).

Oregon is 2-0 on road (49-4 at Oregon St, 34-13 at UCLA)
Under Lanning, Oregon is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Ducks are 13-8 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 14-6 ATS in conference games.
Ducks are 15-4 ATS in last 19 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 17-8 ATS coming off a win.

Purdue (1-5, 0-3)
Purdue lost 50-49 in OT LW, after trailing 27-3 in 3rd quarter.
Purdue is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 46.8 ppg.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
Boilers are 8-14 ATS in last 22 conference games.
Purdue gave up 550+ TY in three of five I-A games.
Purdue is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Purdue’s I-A games.

These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in conference games.

Florida State is 22-0 straight up all-time vs. Duke

FSU +3 at Duke on Friday.

67% of bets are on FSU +130 to beat Duke at BetMGM

College Football Week 8 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Georgia-Texas
2. Alabama-Tennessee
3. Oregon-Purdue

Most bet teams
1. Texas -5
2. Purdue +28.5
3. Alabama -3

Most bet teams $
1. Texas -5
2. BYU -9.5
3. Alabama -3

Florida State at Duke
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

You have probably seen the head-to-head history between Florida State & Duke, with FSU on current runs of 22-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS. So why are the Blue Devils favored, and why is 63% of the bets coming in on that side of the ledger at DK? Well, don’t fret about that last part, as when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)!

I would think that if there is one “revenge” game of the week, this is it, as Duke finally has a realistic shot at ending its horrid losing streak to the Seminoles. You don’t think this game has been circled on head coach Manny Diaz’s calendar, particularly since FSU started reeling? Take a look at this nice revenge system in play: College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 94-15 SU and 73-31-5 ATS (70.2%) since 2016. The Seminoles are also on runs of 10-19 ATS in road/neutral games and in ACC play. Motivation will also come to Duke from playing this game in front of a national TV audience.