Broncos (-2.5) @ Saints
Broncos (3-3)
Denver is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in their road games TY.
Broncos outscored last five opponents 59-17 in second half.
Denver is only 20-80 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Under Payton, Denver is 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
In wins, Broncos are +4 in turnovers; in losses, minus-5.
Denver is 21-18-2 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC teams.
Broncos are 10-19-1 ATS last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Denver opponents were 18-33 on third down.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

Saints (2-4)
New Orleans lost its last four games, by 3-2-13-24 points.
Saints were outscored 27-0 in 2nd half of LW’s loss to Tampa Bay.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 116-76 in first half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Saints are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Last two weeks, Saints ran ball only 36 times, for 127 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-14-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-2 TY).
Rookie QB Rattler is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
Saints are 9-12-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points,
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

Denver won five of last six series games.
Broncos won their last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sean Payton was 161-97 as coach of the Saints (2006-21)

Sean Payton will be making his return to New Orleans for this Thursday Night Football showdown. And while not many would have expected it, his Broncos actually have the better record between these teams.

However, it’s not like either group has consistently played great football this year. The Broncos are absolutely miserable offensively, but they’re winning because of an elite defense. Meanwhile, the Saints looked like the best team in the league through two weeks, but they have lost four in a row and are currently without quarterback Derek Carr. That’s why this game has an extremely low total

For as bad as the Broncos offense has looked this season, the team actually has a higher EPA per play (-0.046) than the Saints (-0.151) since Week 3. That’s pretty crazy considering how good New Orleans looked early in the year, but the numbers don’t lie. And Bo Nix has had an up-and-down rookie season thus far, but he’s probably going to be the better quarterback in this one. Nix has been making weekly strides after a lousy start to the season. Meanwhile, Rattler was just a fifth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He does have arm talent and is an intriguing long-term prospect, but he played a miserable second half against the Buccaneers last game. It was disappointing after a hot start. Now, Rattler will be going up against a defense that is fourth in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.132). Denver is also third in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.133), and the team’s secondary could get to Rattler. Patrick Surtain II did suffer a concussion last week, and he’s out for this game. But Chris Olave is out for the Saints, so that should even things out a little. And Denver’s good play on the backend goes beyond just Surtain.

Realistically, neither one of these offenses is all that inspiring right now, but the recent stats suggest that Denver is the better team on both sides of the ball. The Broncos also have a better coach on the sidelines, and Payton should have a good understanding of how to beat Dennis Allen’s defense. Allen was Payton’s defensive coordinator for years, so there will be a ton of familiarity there. On top of that, the Broncos are 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread as favorites under Payton.

Early Broncos-Saints betting at BetMGM

Broncos open +1, now -2.5
▪️ 61% of bets, 74% of money on Broncos

Total open 36.5, now 37
▪️ 58% of bets, 69% of money on Under

Saints open -115, now +120
▪️ 57% of bets, 43% of money on Saints

Most bet (tickets) Broncos-Saints player props at BetMGM

1. Alvin Kamara over 35.5 receiving yards

2. Bo Nix over 189.5 passing yards

3. Foster Moreau over 8.5 receiving yards

4. Troy Franklin over 20.5 receiving yards

Broncos-Saints touchdown betting at BetMGM

Anytime TD:

1. Audric Estime +600
2. Alvin Kamara -120
3. Devaughn Vele +500
4. DEN Defense/Special Teams +600
5. Sutton +225

Jaleel McLaughlin under 29.5 rush + rec yards @ Saints (-115)

Last 5 games:
hit in 4/5
avg 23.2 / 17.5 in overs
-6.3 edge